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Old 07-24-2018, 05:57 PM   #3
Dave Schwartz
 
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,918
Next, we look at the impact on the tote board.



The odds change in the opposite way.

What we see here is a widening of the top-to-bottom $Nets.

This is the impact of even more winners being pushed towards the top. Now, some of this is caused by smaller fields.

Look at the 2017 stats. See how the $net was relatively even between the first 3 choices ($1.68, $1.66, $1.64), then dropped off at "FH" ($1.49)?

A summary of 2017 would be:
1st, 2nd, 3rd = best
FH = bad
RH = horrible

Now look at 2018. Thus far this year, we've seen the actual favorite rise a couple of cents, over the next two ranks.

A summary of 2018 would be:
1st = best
2nd, 3rd, FH = good
RH = horrible
In other words, favorites are returning more money at a slight expense to the 2nd and 3rd choices, while the FH has improved to become equal with 2nd/3rd. The RH has gotten even worse.

To say this in fewer words, the public is more dialed in on everything above the rear half. (This is shown clearly in the $Net ratio change.)

Another thing to say would be that some of the winning longshots of the rear half are being bet down so that they pay less.

Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 07-24-2018 at 06:00 PM.
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