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Old 07-24-2018, 07:53 PM   #5
DeltaLover
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Join Date: Oct 2008
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It is quite possible that the game at any point will become unbeatable; the takeout, the inside information, the unfair advantage that large bettors seem to enjoy and the Darwinism that forms today’s crowd are strong reasons to believe that the game can no longer be beaten and has already reached an equilibrium that converts it to some type of a Lotto that is played with horses.

Still, my studies do support this conclusion.

Although I do not fully understand the point you are trying to make, I assure you that a relative simple machine learning approach can easily convert the game to a form of BlackJack (as opposed to Lotto) where the EV ranges somewhere between -1% to +1% ( I have absolutely no trouble to explain and demo how this can be done if there is some interest on this).

What might be more interesting in regards to what you are saying here, is that the related models are targeting lower prices that are usually indicated by composite ratings like prime power. The existence of these models are enough for me to believe that although what you are saying can very well be true (meaning that the specific metric is gradually losing its value) this does not mean that there are not straight forward responses to the improved awareness of the betting crowds.
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