Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
...So, with all this bad news, where is the good news?
That's coming as soon as I can get it written, which could take me a couple of hours.
Meanwhile, what do YOU think a GOOD answer could be?
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Well, my guess is that with the proper analysis and the right tools, we're seeing changes in the wagering patterns of the whales which may introduce some opportunities for the minnows.
I interpret your data and come to the following conclusion - the whales are being pressured to generate the same profits (or greater) than in the years past. Nobody likes to see profits shrink, and the world is run by bean counters, so this is hardly surprising. The whales have adjusted to this pressure by zeroing in and hammering the most likely winners, and not dutching the wagers as equally in the past. This is my observation this year, as I've seen numerous late moves on the tote for the winning horse being crushed like a red lamper in Hong Kong.
So perhaps the trick would be to find not just the vulnerable favorite, but to find the vulnerable favorite that the whales will hammer but then run out?
