Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
The three year best is not a good measuring stick. It is a little better than the track record maybe. How many 9f races do people think are run on dirt at these tracks in a three year span?
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Since I was the one that posted both 3-year best and track records for the major Derby plays, I'd like to ask a few questions and make a comment or two.
What 9 furlong time (call it par, if you wish) did you --and the Beyer people-- use to compare Justy's Santa Derby performance against? There must be some sort of par, no? I assume it isn't 3 year best of track record, so what is it? Bill Quirin figs from an older generation compared horses to a $10,000 par +/- the day's variant. There should be a constant, no? I think there should be and 3 year best or track record are constants that I feel are, in fact, a good measuring stick.
I said earlier that slow horses make for slow times which equals to a slow (high) variant day, and that slower (higher) variant is added to make a slow effort faster. Got that?
So, it seems to me that Justify's time (speed figure) was upgraded because of the allegedly
slow track. Am I mistaken here?
Why do you think the track was slow? On that day, there were three 2-turn races, at one mile, 8.5 furlongs and 9 furlongs.
The one mile race was run by $50,000 claimers who never won two races in their life. A very low grade class, imo... even with a $50,000 tag. That slow mile effort started the group thinking that the track was slow. Slow horse made for a slow mile race.
Then there was Justify's win ... 149.4 or so, after a pedestrian 112.3 pace time, no less. Also a slow race, imo, but the unbeaten winner had things his own way and while that advantage meant he didn't need to extend himself, 149.4 is a slow race, imo.
Two races later we had the S.A. Oaks for 3YO fillies which went down in 144.4 for 8.5 miles. Another slow race, imo.
What is most interesting in the Oaks race is that the winner, Midnight Bisou, ran much faster early than what Justify ran early. She went down in 23.2, 47.3, and 112.0 early before slowing; Justify's fractions were 24.0, 47.4, 112.3.
Gee, I could understand Midnight Bisou slowing down since she ran fast early, but Justify going slow?? He walked early and won in slow final time.
Yet, all I am hearing is that the Santa Anita Derby was the
fastest race of all the preps and that Justify is
lengths better than the other horses.
Now, I know Beyer figs are final time figs, but even TFUS' pace figs gave Justify way higher pace figs than Midnight Bisou received. Why was that?
Look, it doesn't mind me one bit that there's this Justify bandwagon rolling onward and upward, but why is it that Justify's slow effort is
upgraded because of a perceived 'slow' track while the race winners of the other major prep races I posted does not receive any consideration
of any kind?? Thanks, cj, and everyone.
