Finally, there is this...
This is absolutely unprecedented.
What does it mean?
It means that the days of just picking longshots with no regards for how strong the low-odds horses are or aren't and being competitive are pretty much over.
It means that if you are going into a race with an idea that sounds even remotely like, "I just pretend that all the horses under 8/1 are not in the race," you are done before you get started, because the low odds horses are going to pound you.
Permit me to give you some sobering stats:
Do you want to connect o
n 20/1 horses? They come up 2.69% of the time. That is once every 37 races.
What's that you say? You only play 8-horse fields and above?
Well, that will add a couple of points to your chances. You're now all the way up to 4.36%.
One of those occurs every 23 races. Hope you have the right horse in that race.
Let's be more realistic. (And back to all races again.)
86% of all winners are under 8/1.
79% of all winners are under 6/1.
70% of all winners are under 9/2.
61% of all winners are under 7/2.
What about 8+ horse fields?
81% of all winners are under 8/1.
73% of all winners are under 6/1.
63% of all winners are under 9/2.
53% of all winners are under 7/2.
So, with all this bad news, where is the good news?
That's coming as soon as I can get it written, which could take me a couple of hours.
Meanwhile, what do YOU think a GOOD answer could be?
