|
|
01-21-2018, 08:24 AM
|
#1
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
exacta plays that, in the long run, outperform win plays
IN THE LONG RUN, A BET ON THE FAVORITE WILL PRODUCE A LOSS APPOXIMATELY EQUAL TO THE TRACK TAKE OUT
I'LL SUGGEST THAT IN THE SAME LONG RUN, A STRUCTURED EXACTA BET CAN BE CALCULATED SUCH THAT, THE RETURN WILL OUTPERFORM A WIN BET.
THE SUCCESS OF THE BET HAS MUCH TO DO WITH THE ODDS ON THE HORSE THAT COMES IN SECOND.
IT SEEMS THE SHORTED THE SECOND HORSE'S WIN ODDS THE MORE SUCCESSFUL THE EXACTA PLAY.
THOSE EXACTA PLAYS CAN RESULT IN AS MUCH AS A 5O% ADVANTAGE.
IF THE SECOND HORSE'S ARE TOO LONG THE EXACTA PLAY CAN RESULT IN A CORRESONDING LOSS.
THE QUESTION REMAINS, " WILL THE SUCCESSFUL PLAYS OUTPERFORM THE NOT SO SUCCESSFUL PLAYS, SUCH THAT A LONG TERM PROFIT CAN BE MADE".
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
01-21-2018, 09:11 AM
|
#2
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Code:
"UK Fontwell
Race
3
Post
9:10
MTP
1
$1 Exacta Pool
$1,428"
PGNO BET SIZE
FAVORITE 4 BET SIZE
2ND HORSE 1 39
2ND HORSE 2 39
2ND HORSE 3 13
2ND HORSE 4 ----
2ND HORSE 5 9
2ND HORSE 6 ----
2ND HORSE 7 ----
2ND HORSE 8 ----
2ND HORSE 9 ----
2ND HORSE 10 ----
2ND HORSE 11 ----
2ND HORSE 12 ----
2ND HORSE 13 ----
2ND HORSE 14 ----
2ND HORSE 15 ----
2ND HORSE 16 ----
100.00
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
01-21-2018, 09:20 AM
|
#3
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 25,949
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
IN THE LONG RUN, A BET ON THE FAVORITE WILL PRODUCE A LOSS APPOXIMATELY EQUAL TO THE TRACK TAKE OUT
I'LL SUGGEST THAT IN THE SAME LONG RUN, A STRUCTURED EXACTA BET CAN BE CALCULATED SUCH THAT, THE RETURN WILL OUTPERFORM A WIN BET.
THE SUCCESS OF THE BET HAS MUCH TO DO WITH THE ODDS ON THE HORSE THAT COMES IN SECOND.
IT SEEMS THE SHORTED THE SECOND HORSE'S WIN ODDS THE MORE SUCCESSFUL THE EXACTA PLAY.
THOSE EXACTA PLAYS CAN RESULT IN AS MUCH AS A 5O% ADVANTAGE.
IF THE SECOND HORSE'S ARE TOO LONG THE EXACTA PLAY CAN RESULT IN A CORRESONDING LOSS.
THE QUESTION REMAINS, " WILL THE SUCCESSFUL PLAYS OUTPERFORM THE NOT SO SUCCESSFUL PLAYS, SUCH THAT A LONG TERM PROFIT CAN BE MADE".
|
__________________
The sport of kings
|
|
|
01-21-2018, 10:25 AM
|
#4
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
posted in error . deleted
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 01-21-2018 at 10:35 AM.
|
|
|
01-21-2018, 10:51 AM
|
#5
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Code:
"IRE Thurles
Race
6
Post
10:50
MTP
1
$1 Exacta Pool
$1,602"
PGNO BET SIZE
FAVORITE 8 BET SIZE
2ND HORSE 1 29
2ND HORSE 2 ----
2ND HORSE 3 9
2ND HORSE 4 26
2ND HORSE 5 10
2ND HORSE 6 ----
2ND HORSE 7 ----
2ND HORSE 8 ----
2ND HORSE 9 4
2ND HORSE 10 22
2ND HORSE 11 ----
2ND HORSE 12 ----
2ND HORSE 13 ----
2ND HORSE 14 ----
2ND HORSE 15 ----
2ND HORSE 16 ----
100.00
win pool $2,638
% win pool played played 91%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
01-21-2018, 12:54 PM
|
#6
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Code:
"Aqueduct
Race
2
Post
12:50
MTP
1
$1 Exacta Pool
$52,481"
PGNO BET SIZE
FAVORITE 3 BET SIZE
2ND HORSE 1 3
2ND HORSE 2 19
2ND HORSE 3 ----
2ND HORSE 4 21
2ND HORSE 5 11
2ND HORSE 6 39
2ND HORSE 7 6
2ND HORSE 8 ----
2ND HORSE 9 ----
2ND HORSE 10 ----
2ND HORSE 11 ----
2ND HORSE 12 ----
2ND HORSE 13 ----
2ND HORSE 14 ----
2ND HORSE 15 ----
2ND HORSE 16 ----
100.00
win pool $49,592
% win pool played played 100%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
01-21-2018, 01:07 PM
|
#7
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Code:
"Gulfstream Park
Race
3
Post
1:05
MTP
1
$1 Exacta Pool
$34,937"
PGNO BET SIZE
FAVORITE 7 BET SIZE
2ND HORSE 1 ---- 0.00 393.18
2ND HORSE 2 ---- 0.00 393.18
2ND HORSE 3 18 72.01 393.18
2ND HORSE 4 61 238.40 393.18
2ND HORSE 5 10 40.52 393.18
2ND HORSE 6 3 11.52 393.18
2ND HORSE 7 ---- 0.00 393.18
2ND HORSE 8 8 30.73 393.18
2ND HORSE 9 ---- 0.00 393.18
2ND HORSE 10 ---- 0.00 393.18
2ND HORSE 11 ---- 0.00 393.18
2ND HORSE 12 ---- 0.00 393.18
2ND HORSE 13 ---- 0.00 393.18
2ND HORSE 14 ---- 0.00 393.18
2ND HORSE 15 ---- 0.00 393.18
2ND HORSE 16 ---- 0.00 393.18
100.00 393.18
win pool $21,157
% win pool played played 94%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
01-21-2018, 01:40 PM
|
#8
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Code:
"Gulfstream Park
Race
4
Post
1:36
MTP
0
$1 Exacta Pool
$86,473"
PGNO BET SIZE
FAVORITE 8 BET SIZE
2ND HORSE 1 29
2ND HORSE 2 ----
2ND HORSE 3 ----
2ND HORSE 4 ----
2ND HORSE 5 8
2ND HORSE 6 7
2ND HORSE 7 55
2ND HORSE 8 ----
2ND HORSE 9 ----
2ND HORSE 10 ----
2ND HORSE 11 ----
2ND HORSE 12 ----
2ND HORSE 13 ----
2ND HORSE 14 ----
2ND HORSE 15 ----
2ND HORSE 16 ----
100.00
win pool $73,279
% win pool played played 96%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
01-21-2018, 02:01 PM
|
#9
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Code:
"Fair Grounds
Race
1
Post
2:00
MTP
1
$1 Exacta Pool
$8,843"
PGNO BET SIZE
FAVORITE 5 BET SIZE
2ND HORSE 1 ----
2ND HORSE 2 ----
2ND HORSE 3 ----
2ND HORSE 4 75
2ND HORSE 5 ----
2ND HORSE 6 2
2ND HORSE 7 8
2ND HORSE 8 15
2ND HORSE 9 ----
2ND HORSE 10 ----
2ND HORSE 11 ----
2ND HORSE 12 ----
2ND HORSE 13 ----
2ND HORSE 14 ----
2ND HORSE 15 ----
2ND HORSE 16 ----
100.00
win pool $8,062
% win pool played played 97%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
01-21-2018, 02:07 PM
|
#10
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Code:
"Gulfstream Park
Race
5
Post
2:05
MTP
0
$1 Exacta Pool
$39,101"
PGNO BET SIZE
FAVORITE 3 BET SIZE
2ND HORSE 1 22
2ND HORSE 2 ----
2ND HORSE 3 ----
2ND HORSE 4 11
2ND HORSE 5 33
2ND HORSE 6 24
2ND HORSE 7 10
2ND HORSE 8 ----
2ND HORSE 9 ----
2ND HORSE 10 ----
2ND HORSE 11 ----
2ND HORSE 12 ----
2ND HORSE 13 ----
2ND HORSE 14 ----
2ND HORSE 15 ----
2ND HORSE 16 ----
100.00
win pool $37,986
% win pool played played 96%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
01-21-2018, 02:25 PM
|
#11
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Code:
"Aqueduct
Race
5
Post
2:24
MTP
0
$1 Exacta Pool
$122,377"
PGNO BET SIZE
FAVORITE 2 BET SIZE
2ND HORSE 1 22
2ND HORSE 2 ----
2ND HORSE 3 12
2ND HORSE 4 16
2ND HORSE 5 6
2ND HORSE 6 ----
2ND HORSE 7 45
2ND HORSE 8 ----
2ND HORSE 9 ----
2ND HORSE 10 ----
2ND HORSE 11 ----
2ND HORSE 12 ----
2ND HORSE 13 ----
2ND HORSE 14 ----
2ND HORSE 15 ----
2ND HORSE 16 ----
100.00
win pool $111,559
% win pool played played 100%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
01-21-2018, 03:25 PM
|
#12
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Code:
"Aqueduct
Race
7
Post
3:26
MTP
1
$1 Exacta Pool
$73,710"
PGNO BET SIZE
FAVORITE 8 BET SIZE
2ND HORSE 1 8
2ND HORSE 2 6
2ND HORSE 3 15
2ND HORSE 4 ----
2ND HORSE 5 31
2ND HORSE 6 ----
2ND HORSE 7 ----
2ND HORSE 8 ----
2ND HORSE 9 34
2ND HORSE 10 7
2ND HORSE 11 ----
2ND HORSE 12 ----
2ND HORSE 13 ----
2ND HORSE 14 ----
2ND HORSE 15 ----
2ND HORSE 16 ----
100.00
win pool $64,681
% win pool played played 92%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
01-21-2018, 03:36 PM
|
#13
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Code:
"Tampa Bay Downs
Race
7
Post
3:35
MTP
1
$1 Exacta Pool
$24,724"
PGNO BET SIZE
FAVORITE 8 BET SIZE
2ND HORSE 1 ----
2ND HORSE 2 ----
2ND HORSE 3 ----
2ND HORSE 4 ----
2ND HORSE 5 9
2ND HORSE 6 62
2ND HORSE 7 10
2ND HORSE 8 ----
2ND HORSE 9 5
2ND HORSE 10 ----
2ND HORSE 11 15
2ND HORSE 12 ----
2ND HORSE 13 ----
2ND HORSE 14 ----
2ND HORSE 15 ----
2ND HORSE 16 ----
100.00
win pool $16,375
% win pool played played 91%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
01-21-2018, 04:20 PM
|
#14
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Code:
"Tampa Bay Downs
Race
8
Post
4:17
MTP
0
$1 Exacta Pool
$29,801"
PGNO BET SIZE
FAVORITE 4 BET SIZE
2ND HORSE 1 ----
2ND HORSE 2 ----
2ND HORSE 3 23
2ND HORSE 4 ----
2ND HORSE 5 ----
2ND HORSE 6 12
2ND HORSE 7 10
2ND HORSE 8 8
2ND HORSE 9 47
2ND HORSE 10 ----
2ND HORSE 11 ----
2ND HORSE 12 ----
2ND HORSE 13 ----
2ND HORSE 14 ----
2ND HORSE 15 ----
2ND HORSE 16 ----
100.00
win pool $24,386
% win pool played played 89%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
01-21-2018, 05:36 PM
|
#15
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Code:
"Santa Anita Park
Race
5
Post
5:36
MTP
1
$1 Exacta Pool
$39,970"
PGNO BET SIZE
FAVORITE 6 BET SIZE
2ND HORSE 1 6
2ND HORSE 2 76
2ND HORSE 3 7
2ND HORSE 4 11
2ND HORSE 5 ----
2ND HORSE 6 ----
2ND HORSE 7 ----
2ND HORSE 8 ----
2ND HORSE 9 ----
2ND HORSE 10 ----
2ND HORSE 11 ----
2ND HORSE 12 ----
2ND HORSE 13 ----
2ND HORSE 14 ----
2ND HORSE 15 ----
2ND HORSE 16 ----
100.00
win pool $68,062
% win pool played played 97%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Rate This Thread |
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|