*No-Handicapping Belmont Part-2 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

NorCalGreg · 05-12-2016, 05:18 AM

--This is intended for those that want to find a couple horses quickly, put a little scratch in their pocket....and go on with life.

If only it were that easy. In my quest for the easy winners, I've come up with a new method. It always seems necessary to remind folks I'm not here to "prove" anything--and yes, as a matter of fact I do know this is an incredibly small sample.

Stuff like this interests me....and I know it holds interest for some of you.

We've discussed Bris Prime Power---and ways to actually profit from the ratings.

I looked at Aqueduct previously--and staying in NY, I'm now sampling the Belmont meet, from 4/29 through today.

I first looked at Top Prime--by min 2pt gap--trainer over 20% win. Sounds like that should screen out the riff-raff, and leave in the choice plays--right?

No sir---the results were so bad I just gave up--could see where it was going--nowhere. Keep in mind---Prime Power is still just a mechanical method--it's not neural, it doesn't "learn". So with that screen I supposed --was giving the most obvious, blatant, overbet favorite.

I tried just taking the highest odds of the top two rated. Was amazing at first--remember that couple days when CONGARETTE, STORMY SKY, & FLATTERYWILLGETYOU all scored at Big odds? Each of those was Prime's 2nd pick--thought maybe I was on to something, but nooooooooo. That streak stopped as quickly as it started.

Today's method: one of the biggest, most important facts I've ever learned in handicapping--is how important CLASS DROP is. If you are building a method---you can't go wrong starting right there--horses dropping in class.
Don't remember the exact number, but it's something like "Horses going UP in class win less than 25% of all races". That's ballpark anyway.

I took every top-rated Prime Power horse @ Belmont--and of those ONLY selected horses competing for a smaller purse today--than last race. If the horse ended up being scratched--I didn't go looking for the next in line--it was just a non-race for this method:

CORE PORTFOLIO $9.00
PORCH POUNDER X
GREEN MASK 2ND
NY CHROME $4.10
RENWICK $4.70
TAKREES X
LADY SHIPMAN $3.10
INSIDE STRAIGHT $2.60
DADZ LAUGH 2ND
SWEET ADVANCE $6.30
ECONOMIC MODEL $3.70
BUCKSKIN DOLL 2ND
SHOTGUN LOVE X
AWESOME GENT X
LIBERTY FUZE 3RD
TASREEH $4.00
ANCHOR DOWN $5.70
CELTIC CHAOS $10.40
CARDS OF STONE X
IRONICUS $3.80
BEAUTY IN THE PULPIT X
COMMUTE $2.90
HOT DUDETTE $5.20
DADS CAPS X
FIRESTAR $5.40
BIG EAST X

This looks great--so far.

26 SELECTIONS - 14 WINNERS

54% WIN--another 3 ran 2nd

Bet $52.00 - returned $70.90

AVG MUTUAL $5.06

ROI = $1.36

Will this hold up? No, not in the long run...but it's an interesting take, nonetheless.

Today @ Belmont there's a play:

6th ALTER BOY 6-1. Good looking stats, too---Improving, Dropping, Top Prime. One other looks horrible...3/5 shot GIFT BOX.....the only value with that one is if he DOESN'T HIT THE BOARD--then exotics should pay well.

Good luck all

-NCG

Cice · 05-12-2016, 10:28 AM

Gift Box is MTO.

biggestal99 · 05-12-2016, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

--This is intended for those that want to find a couple horses quickly, put a little scratch in their pocket....and go on with life.

If only it were that easy. In my quest for the easy winners, I've come up with a new method. It always seems necessary to remind folks I'm not here to "prove" anything--and yes, as a matter of fact I do know this is an incredibly small sample.

Stuff like this interests me....and I know it holds interest for some of you.

We've discussed Bris Prime Power---and ways to actually profit from the ratings.

I looked at Aqueduct previously--and staying in NY, I'm now sampling the Belmont meet, from 4/29 through today.

I first looked at Top Prime--by min 2pt gap--trainer over 20% win. Sounds like that should screen out the riff-raff, and leave in the choice plays--right?

No sir---the results were so bad I just gave up--could see where it was going--nowhere. Keep in mind---Prime Power is still just a mechanical method--it's not neural, it doesn't "learn". So with that screen I supposed --was giving the most obvious, blatant, overbet favorite.

I tried just taking the highest odds of the top two rated. Was amazing at first--remember that couple days when CONGARETTE, STORMY SKY, & FLATTERYWILLGETYOU all scored at Big odds? Each of those was Prime's 2nd pick--thought maybe I was on to something, but nooooooooo. That streak stopped as quickly as it started.

Today's method: one of the biggest, most important facts I've ever learned in handicapping--is how important CLASS DROP is. If you are building a method---you can't go wrong starting right there--horses dropping in class.
Don't remember the exact number, but it's something like "Horses going UP in class win less than 25% of all races". That's ballpark anyway.

I took every top-rated Prime Power horse @ Belmont--and of those ONLY selected horses competing for a smaller purse today--than last race. If the horse ended up being scratched--I didn't go looking for the next in line--it was just a non-race for this method:

CORE PORTFOLIO $9.00
PORCH POUNDER X
GREEN MASK 2ND
NY CHROME $4.10
RENWICK $4.70
TAKREES X
LADY SHIPMAN $3.10
INSIDE STRAIGHT $2.60
DADZ LAUGH 2ND
SWEET ADVANCE $6.30
ECONOMIC MODEL $3.70
BUCKSKIN DOLL 2ND
SHOTGUN LOVE X
AWESOME GENT X
LIBERTY FUZE 3RD
TASREEH $4.00
ANCHOR DOWN $5.70
CELTIC CHAOS $10.40
CARDS OF STONE X
IRONICUS $3.80
BEAUTY IN THE PULPIT X
COMMUTE $2.90
HOT DUDETTE $5.20
DADS CAPS X
FIRESTAR $5.40
BIG EAST X

This looks great--so far.

26 SELECTIONS - 14 WINNERS

54% WIN--another 3 ran 2nd

Bet $52.00 - returned $70.90

AVG MUTUAL $5.06

ROI = $1.36

Will this hold up? No, not in the long run...but it's an interesting take, nonetheless.

Today @ Belmont there's a play:

6th ALTER BOY 6-1. Good looking stats, too---Improving, Dropping, Top Prime. One other looks horrible...3/5 shot GIFT BOX.....the only value with that one is if he DOESN'T HIT THE BOARD--then exotics should pay well.

Good luck all

-NCG

Well one of Cramers fav moves is the track switch/class drop.

I would say the majority of these horses had this angle.

Allan

biggestal99 · 05-12-2016, 10:54 AM

This seems to me a good angle for the few opening weeks of any meet.

Allan

Ocala Mike · 05-12-2016, 04:39 PM

ALTAR BOY ran a nice 2nd - easy $31.80 exacta score.

whodoyoulike · 05-12-2016, 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

--This is intended for those that want to find a couple horses quickly, put a little scratch in their pocket....and go on with life.

If only it were that easy. In my quest for the easy winners, I've come up with a new method. It always seems necessary to remind folks I'm not here to "prove" anything--and yes, as a matter of fact I do know this is an incredibly small sample. ...

No sir---the results were so bad I just gave up--could see where it was going--nowhere. Keep in mind---Prime Power is still just a mechanical method--it's not neural, it doesn't "learn". So with that screen I supposed --was giving the most obvious, blatant, overbet favorite.

I tried just taking the highest odds of the top two rated. Was amazing at first--remember that couple days when CONGARETTE, STORMY SKY, & FLATTERYWILLGETYOU all scored at Big odds? Each of those was Prime's 2nd pick--thought maybe I was on to something, but nooooooooo. That streak stopped as quickly as it started.

Today's method: one of the biggest, most important facts I've ever learned in handicapping--is how important CLASS DROP is. If you are building a method---you can't go wrong starting right there--horses dropping in class.
Don't remember the exact number, but it's something like "Horses going UP in class win less than 25% of all races". That's ballpark anyway.

I took every top-rated Prime Power horse @ Belmont--and of those ONLY selected horses competing for a smaller purse today--than last race. If the horse ended up being scratched--I didn't go looking for the next in line--it was just a non-race for this method: ...

Good luck all

-NCG

BPP is a good rating system and have noticed a lot of my top selections are also the top BPP. So, I do like it. The problem I have with it is that it's not a predictive algorithm. I think it's based strictly on past performances. I've previously mentioned on here that I was handicapping two races for the same horse on the same day, different tracks and different distances but the BPP was the exact same number for each race. The description for BPP indicated that distance plus a number of other variables were considered in it's calculation. I know this is only one example but, these situations don't come up very often to build a database. I guess, you just need to know when to apply it.

NorCalGreg · 05-12-2016, 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

BPP is a good rating system and have noticed a lot of my top selections are also the top BPP. So, I do like it. The problem I have with it is that it's not a predictive algorithm. I think it's based strictly on past performances. I've previously mentioned on here that I was handicapping two races for the same horse on the same day, different tracks and different distances but the BPP was the exact same number for each race. The description for BPP indicated that distance plus a number of other variables were considered in it's calculation. I know this is only one example but, these situations don't come up very often to build a database. I guess, you just need to know when to apply it.

This is what I found surprising about this survey---Prime Power is, within itself a far better "handicapper" than you or I. It doesn't miss a thing--makes no errors in calcs, is unable to "fall in love" with a horse, like we humans do--emotion, intuition, past experience plays no part in today's rating. It is a brilliant handicapping software program.

That's also it's achilles heel.....it can't play angles, innuendos, remember a similar situation last year, and on and on. CLASS HANDICAPPING is built into the matrix....as are a ton of other known handicapping pinciples.

So why---when I further refine the rating with a yet another "class" variable----do the ratings improve? Allan may have hit on it--it may just be the new meet. But aren't these basically the exact same horses that ran Aqueduct? They never missed a start, for the most part--did they? Looks like they just vanned up and moved down the road.

That is why I asked myself "WILL THIS HOLD UP?"....and the answer is a resounding NO. It can't.

This is the reason I'm not a data-base guy. The fun is in the research--not the cold, sterile results.

I'll revisit this again---and if it is still holding up--I'll bet them, while keeping meticulous records. It'll be my luck it starts it's inevetible decline THAT VERY DAY.

all who posted or just took the time to read--

Thank you

-NCG

Dave Schwartz · 05-12-2016, 11:34 PM

NCG,

I like your approach.

Back in the late 90s while while on a business trip to Las Vegas, I found myself at the Orleans with no computer. I grabbed a Form and hit upon an interesting approach.

You know how people like to say, "All the winners were overlays" after the fact? So, I got this bright idea to look at each horse's last race, looking for horses that won and considered their odds in that race as the line for today's race providing they were coming back at the same class (or lower), same surface, same distance.

The idea was if a horse was (say) 2/1 in his last race and he's entered in similar or easier company today, then if I got 5/2 or 3/1 it would have to be an overlay.

I also included horses that almost won - finishing within a neck of the winner.

It was astounding how many horses qualified and performed well in the next race.

Dave

mikesal57 · 05-13-2016, 08:20 AM

OMG.....

Look who's sucking up here........or was there a marriage overnight that I, NCG's attorney, wasn't invited to...

NorCalGreg · 05-13-2016, 09:14 AM

Thank you Mike.....you're like a pit bull when you chomp down on someone's leg---you just don't let go

We can get back to talking horses now.......

That's really thinking outside the box, Dave...I like that.

Does anyone remember Derek Simon? He had a blog on Twinspires? He was also the type of guy who thought outside the box.

He came up with an idea of taking the Top Prime Power horse---and using the Morning Line as a baseline...demanded 2X the Morning Line, to insure himself of betting only a probable overlay.

So if the top choice was 2-1...he would theoretically bet @ 4-1 or better--5-2 he would have a bet @ 5-1 and so on.

There weren't a lot of plays, obviously...but he did a lengthy (2 or 3 months) test--and came up a solid winner.

I'm absolutely positive there are profits to be made using any ratings you know to be close to Prime Power in accuracy....and figuring out how to manipulate those figs for profit. The nuts and bolts handicapping is already done for us.

BTW.....DEREK SIMON...where the heck are you? If anyone knows if he's still publishing his angles and research somewhere---please let his fans know where to find him.

-NCG

mikesal57 · 05-13-2016, 09:26 AM

OK...NCG.....as your attorney , I have advised you....

Kidding aside...

Why not play around with finding horses where Joe Public and most every software will not go....

Find winners where Prime ranks , say, 3RD or worse..?????

Yes, the percentage goes down but the payouts go up....

Think about it..

Mike

Winger · 05-13-2016, 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Thank you Mike.....you're like a pit bull when you chomp down on someone's leg---you just don't let go

We can get back to talking horses now.......

That's really thinking outside the box, Dave...I like that.

Does anyone remember Derek Simon? He had a blog on Twinspires? He was also the type of guy who thought outside the box.

He came up with an idea of taking the Top Prime Power horse---and using the Morning Line as a baseline...demanded 2X the Morning Line, to insure himself of betting only a probable overlay.

So if the top choice was 2-1...he would theoretically bet @ 4-1 or better--5-2 he would have a bet @ 5-1 and so on.

There weren't a lot of plays, obviously...but he did a lengthy (2 or 3 months) test--and came up a solid winner.

I'm absolutely positive there are profits to be made using any ratings you know to be close to Prime Power in accuracy....and figuring out how to manipulate those figs for profit. The nuts and bolts handicapping is already done for us.

BTW.....DEREK SIMON...where the heck are you? If anyone knows if he's still publishing his angles and research somewhere---please let his fans know where to find him.

-NCG

Derek Simon is writing for USRacing.com.

Dave Schwartz · 05-13-2016, 11:37 PM

NCG,

You can also friend him on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Youbet.DerekSimon?fref=ts

NorCalGreg · 05-14-2016, 09:38 AM

In case anyone missed it----yesterday's TOP PRIME/CLASS DROP play was

JET BLACK-2ND

STORM PURSUIT $13.60 $5.50 $4.80

Today's plays:

6TH-OFFERING PLAN 8/5

8TH-RECEPTA 5/2

9TH-ADVENTIST 4-1

Good luck ya'all

-NCG

powerrun · 05-14-2016, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

In case anyone missed it----yesterday's TOP PRIME/CLASS DROP play was

JET BLACK-2ND

STORM PURSUIT $13.60 $5.50 $4.80

Today's plays:

6TH-OFFERING PLAN 8/5

8TH-RECEPTA 5/2

9TH-ADVENTIST 4-1

Good luck ya'all

-NCG

Good Luck! Should be interesting to see how Adventist sizes up to Unified. I agree with Recepta possibility sitting on a great race.