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Old 11-11-2017, 08:14 AM   #1
Teach
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,032
Aqueduct: Saturday, November 11

On this Veterans Day, 2017 - before I begin with my picks - I would like to thank all the veterans of this country for their service. It is those brave men and woman, living and dead, whom we honor. It is they who have helped keep this nation free. Thank you.

Race One:

DEEP SEA gets my tepid nod in this 14k, n3L, claiming sprint. “Good golly, Miss Molly…” this horse is dropping faster than Luna Park’s (Brooklyn) parachute jump at ol’ Coney Island. It wasn’t that long ago that this Mineshaft-bred was competing against 50k claimers. Most recently, against 35k company. What’s goin on here? The DRF call today’s drop: “Suspicious!” “Here, here…” I mean…either this chestnut gelding destroys this field, or he’s an up-the-track also-ran. Well, as Sgt. Joe Friday used to say: “Just the facts, Ma’am”. This once highly-priced Keeneland Sales yearling did finish 3rd in his last in the aforementioned 35k company. The gelding does have the services of “The Louisiana Kid,” Kendrick Carmouche. Carmouche has been as hot as the tabasco sauce on those Cajun wings. Yet, does this A.P. Indy-bred want to go longer? Is six panels his optimal distance? Carmouche must get this gelding into the game, early. The gelding’s new trainer (he was claimed out of his last, a Sept. 1st Spa race) is Pat Reynolds. Although he’s a good trainer, Reynolds has a less than stellar record with horses making their 2nd start under his tutelage; yet, albeit, in all fairness, with a limited sampling. Others: , , /

Race Two:

MR. DOUGIE FRESH is my selection in this 40k n2L that’s being run on the turf at one mile. Yes, I freely admit that what immediately catches my attention is the fact that this Ghostzapper-bred bay gelding is taking a significant class drop. Over the summer, this 3 year-old was facing allowance types at both Belmont and Parx. It should be stated that, in both cases, this Pulpit-bred did nothing to distinguish himself. Yet, another factor that catches my eye is that there’s been a significant rider switch to the hot-as-a-petardo-on The 4th of July, Irad Ortiz, Jr. (Ortiz, Jr. “booted home” three winners on yesterday’s card). Yes, this gelding does have a degree of turf pedigree. Nothing to write home about, mind you. Yet probably good enough to get the job done. You can throw into the mix some solid morning works and, I might add, a broodmare that had 2 winners from 2 starters and 1 turf winner. The very capable conditioner, Kiaran McLaughlin, trains this gelding. McLaughlin does well with horses that have been on the shelf. Others: , ,

Race Three:

In this OC state-bred sprint, I’m picking BLUE BELT. This 3-year old Bluegrass Cat-bred gelding tried the lawn in his last two. In neither case did he hit the board. This Storm Cat-bred now switches back to the main where’s he’s had a modicum of success. In fact, he strung together two in a row at Aqueduct earlier in the year. I believe this Go for Gin-bred will benefit from his outside starting post. In addition, the gelding has the services of the top-flight rider, Joel Rosario. He also has the services of a solid conditioner, Dave Cannizzo. Cannizzo does well with horses making their second start with a trainer. A couple solid works since this gelding’s last start bolster confidence. Others: , ,

Race Four:

In this 6-panels MSW state-bred turf sprint, I’m looking outside in this large-field race to the , COLLECTIVE EFFORT. Yes, this Mission Impazable-bred has never run on the grass. Yet, I believe there’s enough turf pedigree, especially “on the bottom," e.g.,” Freud, to get the job done (the dam had 1 turf winner from 3 starters). I should mention that this 2-year old has hit the board in every one of his five pari-mutuel starts, including two non-graded state-bred stakes up at Finger Lakes. Yet, I’d be remiss if I didn’t raise a “red flag” by saying that this colt’s conditioner, Ray Handal, has not won a dirt-to-turf race in 26 tries. Yes, that does raise concerns; however, I still believe this grey colt has a shot. Others: AE, AE (if they draw in), , , (I know…you can’t bet everybody).

Race Five:

In this state-bred allowance turf route, I’ve selected TROPHY ASSET. This “Mechanicsville Chad” Brown trainee turned in a professional effort by breaking his maiden at first asking at Belmont about a month and one-half ago. This Macho Uno-bred 3-year old grey gelding didn’t disappoint in that one as the 7/5 favorite. I believe this Holy Bull-bred is most capable of making it two-straight. Javier Castellano reprises the ride. Others: /, , .

Race Six:

In the 7-panels 60k MSW, I’m picking ALLURED. This 2-year old Chad Brown-trained, Paul Pompa, Jr.-owned chestnut colt has been the “bridesmaid” (or should I say “the best man”) in his only two pari-mutuel starts. This Flatter-bred was 2nd up at the Spa in MSW company in mid-August. He was also 2nd to a runaway winner, Montauk, at Belmont about one month ago. I believe today is graduation day. Irad Ortiz, Jr. reprises the ride. Others: , , /

Race Seven:

In this OC turf route, I’m going with AQUAPHOBIA. This 4 year-old bay colt won his last. He was claimed out of that race by Bob Falcone, Jr. (How are the stable pets, Snickers and Cannoli?) for the Drawing Away Stable. I believe this Giant’s Causeway-bred has a solid chance of repeating. The aforementioned Falcone, Jr. does very well with horses who are making their first start off a claim. Yet, I should also cite that he does not do particularly well with horses entered in route races. Look for this Storm Cat-bred to be out and going when the gates unlatch. The Venezuelan-born reinsman, Javier Castellano, is in the irons. Others: , ,

Race Eight:

In the feature race, the Grade III Red Smith, to be contested over the distance of one and 3/8ths miles on the Aqueduct turf course for a purse of $200,000 for 3-year olds and up, I’m picking MONEY MULTIPLIER. The connections are impeccable: Chad Brown trains; Javier Castellano rides, and the owners are a top-flight outfit: Klaravich Stables and William H. Lawrence. Yet, this roan ridgling threw in “a clunker” in his last. He finished 8th in a field of 11 in the September 30th Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont Park. He was rank in that one; a race won by Beach Patrol. Today, in the Red Smith, I believe this 5-year old has a chance to make amends. A recent solid morning-work bolsters my confidence level. Others: , ,

Race Nine:

In the finale, a 25k MC state-bred sprint, I’m picking: MYDADFLOYD. This 3-year old Bluegrass Cat-bred bay gelding is dropping down the claiming ladder to a point where he now he has a solid chance of garnering his first win. Yes, he’s shown little to this point in his three lifetime pari-mutuel starts, yet in two of those he was facing MSW company; his most recent try came against 40k claimers. Now, alack and alas, he’s in with the kind of competition he should handle. The gelding’s trainer, Bruce Alexander, does well with horses who are entered in maiden-claiming races, albeit with a limited sample. Finally, what seals the deal – at least for me – is an eye-popping, recent morning work in which this gelding “drilled” four panels in :47.3, breezing. Others: , ,
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Walt (Teach)

"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.

"The important thing is what I think of myself."
"David and Lisa" (1962)












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