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10-17-2018, 07:47 PM
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#31
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
I wish Trifecta Mike still posted here. He supposedly built models to handicap races that either didn't use speed figures or else used them in a very minor way. Of course this is just pure speculation by me trying to interpret his obscure or rather mysteriousl postings. He did run some trial with 10 posters on here, that used a secret method that he designed. Of course they had to give up their first born if they ever revealed the method. Please don't take that last comment seriously.
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Here's the thread, interesting nuggets in some posts...
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...light=trifecta
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10-17-2018, 08:19 PM
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#32
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,830
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Amazing. All you have to do is put figures in a thread title and it draws out all the "non-figure" guys. Hey, whatever.
Here is the next in the series:
https://www.paulickreport.com/horsep...demonstration/
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10-17-2018, 08:38 PM
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#33
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
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It's funny, but I used to have the Sheets delivered to a specific convenience store back in the early '90s for $35 a pop, didn't even bat an eye at the price. But I kept evolving as a horseplayer, soon I no longer had a need for the Sheets or Thorograph, they were obsolete to me....My how time flies when breakthroughs of hard work come into existence, and the creative process/methodology goes forward another huge step...Always barely staying ahead of the competition.
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10-17-2018, 10:34 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
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I apologize for bringing up Trif. Mike and de-railing the thread. Didn't know there were forum rules that the class, form, or tote guys shouldn't be posting in figures threads. Hey, whatever.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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10-17-2018, 10:44 PM
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#35
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Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
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I caught this and it may add to Paulicks review of TG and JB.
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10-17-2018, 11:07 PM
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#36
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,830
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
I apologize for bringing up Trif. Mike and de-railing the thread. Didn't know there were forum rules that the class, form, or tote guys shouldn't be posting in figures threads. Hey, whatever.
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No rules, post what you like. I just don't understand it. Been going on for a couple decades now.
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10-18-2018, 09:06 AM
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#37
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,888
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I find it amazing for a poster who admits he does not handicap at all to post a negative comment about speed figures.
By his own posts, he is the LAST person a handicapper would need to take advice from.
Too bad we don't have an e-bug-zapper.
Put up a thread about figs and draw them in only to ZAP!
Good series of articles, btw.
Thanks for posting the links.
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10-18-2018, 12:40 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
I find it amazing for a poster who admits he does not handicap at all to post a negative comment about speed figures.
By his own posts, he is the LAST person a handicapper would need to take advice from.
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And I don’t find it surprising at all that those who relish speed figures so much are the first to complain about anyone who presents any skepticism about those revered numbers.
Funny thing is the advice I posted was quoted from another well-known source. But there’s no sense heeding his words. After all his information is over 100 years old. What possible relevance could there be for today’s game? I guess, “One man’s gold is another man’s garbage”.
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10-18-2018, 01:20 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,823
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
And I don’t find it surprising at all that those who relish speed figures so much are the first to complain about anyone who presents any skepticism about those revered numbers.
Funny thing is the advice I posted was quoted from another well-known source. But there’s no sense heeding his words. After all his information is over 100 years old. What possible relevance could there be for today’s game? I guess, “One man’s gold is another man’s garbage”.
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Do you really not get that there was an article posted interviewing CJ about his figure making, and that coming on here immediately afterwards and saying everyone who makes or uses speed figures is an idiot makes you pretty obnoxious, not to mention tone deaf? CJ's a nice guy and a moderator here, and you're whatever the hell you are....and you're surprised people don't like you derailing the thread?
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10-18-2018, 02:12 PM
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#40
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,830
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10-18-2018, 02:16 PM
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#41
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
Do you really not get that there was an article posted interviewing CJ about his figure making, and that coming on here immediately afterwards and saying everyone who makes or uses speed figures is an idiot makes you pretty obnoxious, not to mention tone deaf? CJ's a nice guy and a moderator here, and you're whatever the hell you are....and you're surprised people don't like you derailing the thread?
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Nitro is a true elitist. He's also works in another timezone, obsessed with Hong Kong in the middle of the night , which might account for some of the unpleasantness.
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10-18-2018, 02:25 PM
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#42
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Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
Do you really not get that there was an article posted interviewing CJ about his figure making, and that coming on here immediately afterwards and saying everyone who makes or uses speed figures is an idiot makes you pretty obnoxious, not to mention tone deaf? CJ's a nice guy and a moderator here, and you're whatever the hell you are....and you're surprised people don't like you derailing the thread?
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Thank you for posting that. People do the sport differently and I respect that. I prefer to do horse racing in a fun and enjoyable manner. Differing opinions are great. But the constant chest thumping and tone of how some other people do horse racing, to me, is not attractive or fun.
I enjoy looking at the PP's and making bets. Thats all I really do.
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10-18-2018, 08:00 PM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
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In all methods studied, the projection method to determine the expected time of a race is key to the process of calculating a variant. The systems that interpret the horses' times to project the expected times or figures (Beyers, TimeformUS, T-Graph, The Sheets) are taking into account which are the most representative of a horse's past races to get this and take into account the various factors involved in weighing the importance of these races. The totally computer generated systems (Brisnet, Equibase) are simply averaging the horses past races without regard to human interpretation of which races are most representative of a horses' ability to give more weight to.
While the methods that are completely computer generated without human intervention are less prone to human error, IMO, the systems that take into account which past races are most representative and weigh them accordingly produce more accurate projections and ultimately, more accurate final figures.
Last edited by bobphilo; 10-18-2018 at 08:03 PM.
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10-18-2018, 09:20 PM
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#44
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,888
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For a good idea of how good BRIS numbers are, look at the 4th at Belmont today. MC40000 - the 1 horse got an 89 last time out.
That fig stand out like a sore thumb.
It is 2.5 second faster the winner's last race fig.
2.5 seconds.
You can't make this crap up.
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10-18-2018, 10:04 PM
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#45
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,888
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The human element can be less than a blessing, too.
NYRA Beyers - I think they break out more than they don't.
Unlike any other track I follow. OP is by far the most consistent.
NYRA figs change a lot, too, days-weeks later. More so than most other tracks I see.
Unless NYRA changes the run ups and mis-times a lot, I have little confidence in the figs for that whole circuit.
Hard to tell - looking at the recent week, Belmont is seriously inept when it comes to timing races. Even getting wrong times seems to escape them lately - 0 times at all showing up.
Embarrassing that a "major track" can't get it right.
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