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Old 06-18-2018, 12:47 PM   #16
AndyC
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Originally Posted by oughtoh View Post
Just the way he is. Long story that I will not get into on this forum. But know he sells everything.
I know several people like that but none of them are substantial bettors. If I were a big bettor and knew the combination to the vault, I sure wouldn't be selling it for a small amount.
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Old 06-18-2018, 01:03 PM   #17
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I know several people like that but none of them are substantial bettors. If I were a big bettor and knew the combination to the vault, I sure wouldn't be selling it for a small amount.
Would you sell it for a BIGGER amount?
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Old 06-18-2018, 01:04 PM   #18
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I'm not sure if it's the same one, but I looked at something like that years ago. I think that's the one that uses the morning line to come up with contenders, right?
As I recall one of the rules was to only use it on fields of 8 or more, so it will work (or not work!) just as well at any track on any race with 8 or more entries.
I'll dig around my stuff tonight to see if I still have my research on that.
Yes that is it! Thanks!
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Old 06-18-2018, 01:22 PM   #19
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If no more scratches, 7 bets out of 7 tracks. Hard to find 8 horse fields on the small tracks.
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Old 06-18-2018, 02:26 PM   #20
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Would you sell it for a BIGGER amount?
Everything has its price.
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Old 06-18-2018, 04:39 PM   #21
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If you yourself had "discovered" the handicapping system that you inquire about here...would you ever consider selling it to the public? Wouldn't it make more sense to keep it for your own private use?
Would only that all the people who pay attention to all the stock market gurus in America ask thask's same question....
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Old 06-18-2018, 06:06 PM   #22
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I perused the system you guys are talking about here. Actually very interesting approach.

Please know that I am not saying it has a snowball's chance in the very deep south of winning, but it is interesting.

It is interesting enough to discuss a little. It would, logically, put the average handicapper onto some exciting races and the occasional big day.

The author is putting forth the concept of "segmentation." Essentially, he is suggesting that the handicapper divide the fields into groups for a reason: to separate the most likely winners from each other (i.e. into different groups).

The next step is to look for the "right group" by applying some rules that (indirectly) have to do with how competitive the group itself is. Doesn't really matter how you do this, but occasionally you will wind up on some lopsided groups, which just scream to fit the system.

See, I read (and often buy) a lot of... what I call, "idea systems," ... just to see if the author has stumbled across something buried in their that has value.

So, allow me to offer a different approach that is actually based upon some of the same principles but makes a little more sense.

This will NOT be a winning system, but you can have a good time with it and (probably do a lot better).

Step 1: Divide the field into 2 groups based upon your belief of the odds in the race.

Group A: All horses that figure to be below 7/2. I don't suggest that you use just morning line for this but you can if you wish.

Group B: Everyone else.

Step 2: Handicap each group like they are in completely different races. The goal is to pick the best horse in each group.

This puts you on two horses in each race, one low-priced, and one higher-priced.


Summary
You will cash a lot of tickets with the Group A horses that will keep you alive and then cash the occasional Group B horse.

There are a lot of bells-and-whistles one could add to this, like:

A. Building a model of what wins at this track in Group B.

B. Instead of splitting groups based upon predicted price, put front-runners in Group A and the rest in Group B. (Group B will always be "the rest.")

C. Get creative with the groups. See how many ways YOU can come up with group segmentation.

D. If this is too simple for you, try creating multiple sets of Groups in each race. You could have Group A be early horses, class horses (what ever that means to you), recent high speed ratings, etc.

Then you could model which GROUP is doing the best.


This approach actually has a lot of potential for winning if you add a few bells-and-whistles as discussed.


Finally, personally, I am trying to do more for the don't-want-to-do-much-work handicapper. I think I will spend some time expanding on this just for fun.

If an average player (i.e. not a winning player) takes any "segmentation" approach, he will open himself to having some pretty good races simply because sometimes he will find himself looking past the obvious horses in the race and playing the best-of-the-rest.

Hope this helps.


Dave
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Old 06-18-2018, 06:44 PM   #23
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This is pretty much how I have played for a long time. I will use a horse that I think has the best chance to win, regardless of odds and if that horse is short on odds I will also use the horse i like best with odds of at least 4-1 or better. That may be too short for some but there are times when I can beat the even money horse and the DD, pick-3 or pick-4 will pay very well because everyone singled the chalk. The 4-1 horse can also drift up in odds by post time because of the action on the favorite. When the top 2 favorites look best then it is a pass for me.
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Old 06-18-2018, 06:48 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
Would only that all the people who pay attention to all the stock market gurus in America ask thask's same question....
Totally different. In race betting your followers reduce your price. In the stock market they help you by buying what you buy.
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Old 06-18-2018, 07:19 PM   #25
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I am going to use it today, not betting money, and see what it does. I read it and seemed weird to me. But knew pari mutual clerks years ago, 70's, that use to use a Chinese system. No it didn't work, would hit from time to time.

Everything changes when you use it betting real money.
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Old 06-18-2018, 07:37 PM   #26
oughtoh
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I know that. Just having fun with it because the guy that made it was a good friend of mine. It is always easier without money. I finally figured Greg's out, I am to old to figure another one out.
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Old 06-18-2018, 10:38 PM   #27
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For some reason this reminds me of an old joke I once heard a comedian say, "I saw an ad in the paper that said, 'Send me $500 and I'll tell you how I make money", so I sent him the $500 and received a letter that said,"Thank you, this is how I make money".
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Old 06-19-2018, 08:37 PM   #28
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Old 06-19-2018, 10:44 PM   #29
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Old 06-20-2018, 10:28 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
I perused the system you guys are talking about here. Actually very interesting approach.

Please know that I am not saying it has a snowball's chance in the very deep south of winning, but it is interesting.

It is interesting enough to discuss a little. It would, logically, put the average handicapper onto some exciting races and the occasional big day.

The author is putting forth the concept of "segmentation." Essentially, he is suggesting that the handicapper divide the fields into groups for a reason: to separate the most likely winners from each other (i.e. into different groups).

The next step is to look for the "right group" by applying some rules that (indirectly) have to do with how competitive the group itself is. Doesn't really matter how you do this, but occasionally you will wind up on some lopsided groups, which just scream to fit the system.

See, I read (and often buy) a lot of... what I call, "idea systems," ... just to see if the author has stumbled across something buried in their that has value.

So, allow me to offer a different approach that is actually based upon some of the same principles but makes a little more sense.

This will NOT be a winning system, but you can have a good time with it and (probably do a lot better).

Step 1: Divide the field into 2 groups based upon your belief of the odds in the race.

Group A: All horses that figure to be below 7/2. I don't suggest that you use just morning line for this but you can if you wish.

Group B: Everyone else.

Step 2: Handicap each group like they are in completely different races. The goal is to pick the best horse in each group.

This puts you on two horses in each race, one low-priced, and one higher-priced.


Summary
You will cash a lot of tickets with the Group A horses that will keep you alive and then cash the occasional Group B horse.

There are a lot of bells-and-whistles one could add to this, like:

A. Building a model of what wins at this track in Group B.

B. Instead of splitting groups based upon predicted price, put front-runners in Group A and the rest in Group B. (Group B will always be "the rest.")

C. Get creative with the groups. See how many ways YOU can come up with group segmentation.

D. If this is too simple for you, try creating multiple sets of Groups in each race. You could have Group A be early horses, class horses (what ever that means to you), recent high speed ratings, etc.

Then you could model which GROUP is doing the best.


This approach actually has a lot of potential for winning if you add a few bells-and-whistles as discussed.


Finally, personally, I am trying to do more for the don't-want-to-do-much-work handicapper. I think I will spend some time expanding on this just for fun.

If an average player (i.e. not a winning player) takes any "segmentation" approach, he will open himself to having some pretty good races simply because sometimes he will find himself looking past the obvious horses in the race and playing the best-of-the-rest.

Hope this helps.


Dave

I think it's a good idea. I touched upon this recently, in another thread, when I said that your best chance of showing a profit basically comes down to handicapping the horses that appear to have less of a chance to win. What I mean is, if you're betting multi-race exotics, like the Pick 4, sure, you have to include some favorites or "obvious" contenders. But if you think you can make a profit betting to win, you're going to have to come up with winners that pay well. Which means that you're going to have to get good at picking the winners that don't look like obvious contenders. The first thing to do is find races where the obvious contenders don't look that good. In other words, there isn't a strong favorite.

Of course, this kind of fits into the old ABC rating of contenders that Steve Crist, Barry Meadow, and others have talked about, the ranking of contenders to use in exotic wagers.

The bottom line is, if you're not good at picking the winners that aren't that obvious, you're pretty much screwed and you should not be betting horses.
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