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Old 06-06-2018, 06:06 PM   #1
Teach
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Belmont Stakes Analysis

2018 Belmont Stakes Analysis – Post Position Order:

JUSTIFY. Was that a game effort - or what - in the Preakness! What more can you say? Undefeated. Winner of the first two legs of the Triple Crown. He draws the rail for The Belmont. As George Gershwin might have said: “Who can ask for anything more?” But wait. This Scat Daddy-bred chestnut colt has run a grueling schedule of races since breaking his maiden at first-asking in late-February at Santa Anita. This colt’s win in the Preakness, just three weeks ago, had to have taken something out of him. I ask: Is twenty-one days sufficient time for this 3-year old to recover from his taxing schedule? That, my friends, is the question. Or, should I say: “The Question”. Personally, I can’t bet him on top, at his M/L odds of 4/5, at least without “buying insurance,” i.e., “hedging”. I’ll do some part-wheels, back-wheels…but no cartwheels. There is talk of showers in the New York City area (Elmont, NY) late-Saturday afternoon. If they do develop, this would move him up. He’s proven he can handle wet-tracks conditions, as evidenced by his sloppy-track wins in both the The Derby and The Preakness. Yet, I hark back to one word: fatigue. Bob Baffert trains. “The Money Man,” Mike Smith, is in the irons.

FREE DROP BILLY. After winning a Grade I Stakes at Keeneland last fall, there were those among “the improvers of the breed” who were chanting – as you’d hear at baseball games: “MVP…MVP…MVP”; only in his case, at the track: “Triple Crown”. Not. This Union Rags-bred chestnut colt hit “a bump in the road”. He hasn’t won since; yet, he did finish second in the Grade II Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. Yes, I can make excuses for this colt in the Derby. There was more traffic in that one than rush-hour on Manhattan’s FDR Drive. Yet, quite candidly, there has been nothing in recent efforts that has me believing that this colt can win the 2018 edition of the Belmont Stakes. In his favor, however, is the fact that he’s been rested since his uninspiring Derby effort. There have been several horses who, in recent years, ran in the Derby, but skipped The Preakness, only to come back and win The Belmont, e.g., Creator, Palace Malice, Union Rags (this colt’s sire, 2012), Summer Bird, Jazil, Birdstone, Empire Maker (American Pharoah sire), etc. Finally, I wouldn’t rule this colt out, completely. He would certainly add value to an exotic if he were to grace the Belmont Park tote board just before 7 p.m., this Saturday, June 9. Dale Romans (he won the 2011 Preakness with Shackleford and upset American Pharoah in the 2015 Travers at Saratoga with Keen Ice) trains. Robby Albarado has his feet in the stirrups.

BRAVAZO. As Marlon Brando (Terry Malloy) said in the 1954 movie, “On The Waterfront,” “I coulda bin a contendah. I coulda bin some body.” Well, Bravazo, you are somebody. And yes, you are a contender, at least in this year’s edition of the final jewel of racing’s “Triple Crown,” The Belmont Stakes. This colt’s last race at Pimlico in The Preakness was outstanding. He was coming fastest of all in deep stretch…like an express train. Had the race been The Derby distance, he woulda won, but, alas and alack, it wasn’t to be. Speaking of The Derby, his jockey in that race, Luis Contreras, said he handled the off-going very well. Surprisingly well. But wait. Hark. These horses are stretching out an additional quarter-mile from their Derby effort (slightly more if you take into the account the Preakness distance). That should help. The Panamanian-born Luis Saez is in the saddle for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Finally, yes Bravazo, you are a “contendah”. And if your odds stay anywhere near 8-1, I’ll be frothing at the mouth like one of those Pavlovian dogs.

HOFBURG is – in my estimation – “The Sleeper”. Lightly-raced. Well-rested. Regally-bred: Tapit (Pulpit). A Hall-of-Fame trainer: Bill Mott. An outstanding jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. Yet, I’m not quite sure what to expect. But this much I do know…if this colt “fires,” he’s right there at the wire. This 3-year old got brushed and steadied in the large-field Derby. No chance! His connections skipped The Preakness. I believe this colt must be given consideration in The Belmont. I suppose my only gnawing question: “Can he get the distance?” For some horses this is “a bridge too far!” I’m not quite sure. His pedigree seems to say he can get there. In his favor, he was closing in The Derby. I believe this colt merits consideration in the Belmont Stakes.

RESTORE HOPE. Personally, I don’t see much hope for trainer Bob Baffert’s “other horse”. Yes, he did finish 3rd to Vino Rosso in the Grade II Wood Memorial at Aqueduct as a slightly better than 7/2 shot a couple months ago. In this colt’s most recent start, in early May, he finished up the track in the Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs (he did get caught wide). If anything, this Giant’s Causeway-bred might be better suited for the grass. It’s possible that he could move up on a wet surface. Florent Geroux is this colt’s chauffeur.

GRONKOWSKI. His namesake, the New England Patriots tight-end, Rob Gronkowski, is a part-owner (“Gronk” says he’ll be at Belmont Saturday to root on his horse). I guess what concerns me about this colt is that he has been racing - and doing quite well “Across the Pond” - but on all-weather and turf surfaces. How will this colt do on Belmont’s dirt surface? Further, his longest race has been at one mile. He now stretches out a half-mile from his previous races. This Kentucky-bred is now being asked to go appreciably further than he has ever gone before. This colt was slated to run in The Derby, but he came down with a fever. He’s had a long respite, dating back to late March, to get ready for The Belmont. He should, if anything, be well rested. Just having “Gronk” (the football player) in attendance Saturday should make it that much more exciting. Now, if his namesake could run as well the real “Gronk” catches passes, we’d really have something. I have my doubts - about the colt, that is. “Mechanicsville Chad” Brown trains.

TENFOLD. This colt is a bit of enigma. Frankly, I’m on the horns of a dilemma. Does this Curlin-bred run back to his hard-charging close (he finished 3rd) in the Preakness, or does this 3-year-old run out of steam as he did in the Grade I Arkansas Derby? Which Tenfold do we get? If we get the former, this colt can be “a player”. I believe this colt will definitely move up if we get showers. Any moisture on the racetrack will enhance his chances. Yet, as stated, I’m not quite sure what to do with this colt. I may well err on the side of caution and use him in some of my exotics. Ricardo Santana, Jr. reprises the ride for the Hall of Fame trainer from “The Streets of Laredo,” Steve Asmussen.

VINO ROSSO. I’m willin’ to toss out his Derby race. He drew outside in a large field. That appeared to compromise his chances. Yet, in his favor, he was making headway in the stretch. His connections skipped the Preakness and now have him entered in The Belmont. The colt’s breeding appears to be saying two things: (1) he would move up if the track turned out to be wet, and (2) he appears to have the pedigree that can get the 1 and ½ mile Belmont Stakes distance. This chestnut colt won the Wood Memorial despite being bumped, twice. The Hall of Famer, Johnny V., is in the irons for the "Big D’s” Todd Pletcher.

NOBLE INDY was last seen finishing up the track in the Kentucky Derby. I’ll give this colt “a mulligan” in that one as he drew an extreme outside post. Although forwardly placed at the start, this colt ended up fading on the backstretch. To his credit, in his race just prior to The Derby, this 3-year old won the Grade II La Derby at Fairgrounds. This colt’s running style indicates he would like to be forwardly placed. That task may be made that much more difficult by his outside starting post. In his favor, this colt has won three of his five pari-mutuel starts. Yet, he appears to be a rank outsider. However, he does have the services of both the veteran reinsman, Javier Castellano, and trainer Todd Pletcher. One thing appears certain; he will be a price.

BLENDED CITIZEN is a West Coast “invader” who has made his way east for the Belmont Stakes. The colt’s trainer, Doug O’Neill, is a West Coast product from Santa Monica, CA. In 2012, O’Neill trained Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner, I’ll Have Another. In 2016, O’Neill trained 2016 Kentucky Derby winner, Nyquist. The colt’s jockey, another West Coast product, is Kyle Frey (PRONOUNCED: Fray). One thing I can say for this colt that I can’t say for the others – he’s had a race over the track. This Proud Citizen-bred won the Grade III Peter Pan about one month ago. At first blush, this colt’s pedigree looks turf-oriented (he has run three times on the turf). This bay colt appears to have a “tailgate” running-style that says: “I can run all day”. A plodder. He might just benefit from the Belmont Stakes distance. I’m personally giving serious consideration to using him in my gimmick plays. I’m always looking for value. This could just be – “my value horse”.

As always, the very best of luck!
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Old 06-07-2018, 12:37 PM   #2
Nitro
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Very nice write-up Teach!

I'm also leaning away from the heavy favorite.

BTW I think your post should also be located in the Triple Crown forum.
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Old 06-07-2018, 12:43 PM   #3
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As always, good job. Only one slight disagreement. Justify really has not improved his speed figures on a "off" track, his best race or races have come on a fast track.
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