Contrarian Investing-JNJ? - Page 10 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Valuist · 03-24-2020, 06:18 PM

Match.com interesting from the short side. Match also owns Tinder. Other than cruise lines, can you think of a worse business to be in right now? Stock was up nearly 20% today. Have to see quite a bit more pain in that company.

FakeNameChanged · 03-26-2020, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valuist

Match.com interesting from the short side. Match also owns Tinder. Other than cruise lines, can you think of a worse business to be in right now? Stock was up nearly 20% today. Have to see quite a bit more pain in that company.

Not to be contrary, but I'd be more inclined to take the other side of that trade. But then the whole market looks like the bottom has been hit. Many have crossed both 8 day EMA (trendline) and also either the 15 or 21 day SMA to the upside. Plus both short and longer term MACD's are in the positive momentum territory. This doesn't feel like it's going to be a sideways market for the long periods that some "experts" have called for.

Valuist · 03-26-2020, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

Not to be contrary, but I'd be more inclined to take the other side of that trade. But then the whole market looks like the bottom has been hit. Many have crossed both 8 day EMA (trendline) and also either the 15 or 21 day SMA to the upside. Plus both short and longer term MACD's are in the positive momentum territory. This doesn't feel like it's going to be a sideways market for the long periods that some "experts" have called for.

The recent lows will be retested. At least once.

ReplayRandall · 03-26-2020, 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valuist

The recent lows will be retested. At least once.

I agree the lows will be retested.....and broken through. Lambo is in the ballpark with 15K, though I think it may go lower than that. God forbid another Black Swan appears out of nowhere, it just might collapse the entire global financial/credit system.

FakeNameChanged · 03-30-2020, 09:16 AM

While the futures this morning are down(again) on $WTIC, it looks to me like it's close to a bottom. One of my best investments several years back was shorting oil when it hit $110/bbl. This is mostly a gut feeling, while all my indicators are mixed. IF the market does reverse(big IF), then it will need energy to fuel the expansion. Since wind, sun and atomic power sources aren't really too invested in the markets yet, we're gonna need a glut of oil. And I read all the "energy/oil experts" reports, and they all contradict each other. For now, I'll remain on stand-by.
(edit)-I see a 1 to 2 year target at $53 /bbl.

FakeNameChanged · 04-02-2020, 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

While the futures this morning are down(again) on $WTIC, it looks to me like it's close to a bottom. One of my best investments several years back was shorting oil when it hit $110/bbl. This is mostly a gut feeling, while all my indicators are mixed. IF the market does reverse(big IF), then it will need energy to fuel the expansion. Since wind, sun and atomic power sources aren't really too invested in the markets yet, we're gonna need a glut of oil. And I read all the "energy/oil experts" reports, and they all contradict each other. For now, I'll remain on stand-by.
(edit)-I see a 1 to 2 year target at $53 /bbl.

So I'm reading an article this morning that China is stepping in to buy oil reserves at these record low prices. Futures up over 10% right now. Still on standby until some hurdles have been cleared.

FakeNameChanged · 04-02-2020, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

So I'm reading an article this morning that China is stepping in to buy oil reserves at these record low prices. Futures up over 10% right now. Still on standby until some hurdles have been cleared.

Along with my interest in oil with the "coming" recovery, XOM is very attractive to me plus its 9.2% dividend. Of course div's are not the driving force, as it may be cut altogether. Being a contrarian and an optimist, my personal model says Exxon is at the bottom, or very near. If everything in the economy goes to hell, then it won't matter much. Many if not most of the WS analysts have NOW downgraded XOM and that is a plus in my book. Caution, do your own due diligence.

highernote · 04-02-2020, 11:58 AM

This article is behind a paywall, but it looks interesting.

Quote:

Saudi-Russia oil war is a game theory masterstroke

https://www.ft.com/content/1da60fa2-...4-1391a2047972

FakeNameChanged · 04-02-2020, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by highernote

This article is behind a paywall, but it looks interesting.

We(I) wouldn't mind if you give us the cliff notes, you know throw it over the the wall, since you must have access.

highernote · 04-02-2020, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

We(I) wouldn't mind if you give us the cliff notes, you know throw it over the the wall, since you must have access.

I don't subscribe to the Financial Times otherwise I would give you a summary. I subscribe to WSJ.

highernote · 04-04-2020, 02:26 PM

Ray Dalio of Bridgewater has been publishing his research on the long term cycles of empires -- ascent, peak, decline. Fascinating reading.

The United States has a lot in common with the two previous empires -- the Dutch and the British.

China is now on the rise.

His article at this link explains it well:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/chapt...ell-ray-dalio/

Here is the link for the introductory chapter in case you want to read them in order:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/chang...-ray-dalio-1f/

FakeNameChanged · 04-06-2020, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

While the futures this morning are down(again) on $WTIC, it looks to me like it's close to a bottom. One of my best investments several years back was shorting oil when it hit $110/bbl. This is mostly a gut feeling, while all my indicators are mixed. IF the market does reverse(big IF), then it will need energy to fuel the expansion. Since wind, sun and atomic power sources aren't really too invested in the markets yet, we're gonna need a glut of oil. And I read all the "energy/oil experts" reports, and they all contradict each other. For now, I'll remain on stand-by.
(edit)-I see a 1 to 2 year target at $53 /bbl.

Since posting this 3/30, oil jumped up 40% but futures this morning say it's taking a breather, which is good IMO.

FakeNameChanged · 04-09-2020, 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

Along with my interest in oil with the "coming" recovery, XOM is very attractive to me plus its 9.2% dividend. Of course div's are not the driving force, as it may be cut altogether. Being a contrarian and an optimist, my personal model says Exxon is at the bottom, or very near. If everything in the economy goes to hell, then it won't matter much. Many if not most of the WS analysts have NOW downgraded XOM and that is a plus in my book. Caution, do your own due diligence.

XOM, CVX both up 16% since posting this. The energy etf is up 15%. Can't fuel the recovery on sun and wind power(yet). The market analysts have anything from underperform to sell on both these companies. WTH are they looking at? $Natgas is one I still can't decipher(both technically or fundamentally).

FakeNameChanged · 04-09-2020, 02:03 PM

CEO Phillip Frost, MD bought 400,000 shrs at the market price on Tues for this small lab company that is involved with Covid testing. Literally in the last 10-15 minutes volume spiked to 5.9 mm shrs. OPK is the symbol. Maybe Ocala Mike has some insight, since this looks like his wheelhouse.

FakeNameChanged · 04-09-2020, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

CEO Phillip Frost, MD bought 400,000 shrs at the market price on Tues for this small lab company that is involved with Covid testing. Literally in the last 10-15 minutes volume spiked to 5.9 mm shrs. OPK is the symbol. Maybe Ocala Mike has some insight, since this looks like his wheelhouse.

edit- I see Phil Frost bought an addl. 50,000 shrs of Opko Health. back on Apr. 6 at the market also. Missed that.