The Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) $1,500,000 Saturday June 10

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Here are my Belmont Stakes selections

Best of luck to all!

Attachment 33092

Not a “holy sh*t score,” but a score non the less. Congrats to everyone who was on the winner and had winning tickets!

[Vinnie]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Arcangelo. Improves at all and he should be coming like a freight train…..if he runs back to his last he will still be there I think.

He had a tough drive last out which I normally hate to bet back, but he showed some real heart coming back to win.

Nice call Ralph!! I hope that you had something on him. I took a shot and missed. Even ES had him rambling late on the sim. Again, excellent call. Thrilled for Ms. Antonucci, the horse and his connections. Big race by Arcangelo...

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Arcangelo. Improves at all and he should be coming like a freight train…..if he runs back to his last he will still be there I think.

He had a tough drive last out which I normally hate to bet back, but he showed some real heart coming back to win.

Thanks! I got some of it as usual should have bet more…..

BTW- I POSTED The Derby winner and the Belmont winner this year using EQUISIM as my only tool

[Vinnie]

Once again Congratulations Ralph. Excellent capping!

[f2tornado]

I was live on the 2-day P6, a P4, and a pair of $5 doubles to the Forte. Had some backup plays with the and . Had a hunch the would fire but that hunch came far too late. Ugh. Managed to throw a saver $2 3/1 double to effectively break even on the feature. Feeling slightly annoyed, I threw a dime down at Santa Anita and snagged another $50. Close to a big payday my my standards but will have to settle about a $100 more than I started with.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

I saw that, thanks & I have the same concerns as you. Also, I believe Cox says he did it at the behest of Flavien Prat. The fact that Prat, being a jockey, essentially made the call has me even more worried...Too much tinkering on a horse that already knows how to win.

No slight on Castellano in the Belmont as Arcangelo was expertly handled while eager & loaded throughout, but I have to say 'mission accomplished' to Flavien Prat with the blinkers on for Angel of Empire.

Those blinkers really aided Prat's brilliant strategy to hustle the horse strongly from the gate to secure a 7-wide stalking position going into the first turn. Never mind that stablemate Tapit Shoes was similarly sent from the bell as rabbit to immediately harry the speedy National Treasure up front.

At that point the plan apparently was to switch the horse off & let him get shuffled back to 7th entering the backstretch. Prat then wisely gave him his head again & allowed the horse to pull his way back to an up close spot to keep the pressure on his 2 stablemates lest they fail to keep National Treasure honest.

Time for another breather heading to 5/8s pole, where Prat cannily took the opportunity for a quick goggle change which I'm sure was critical despite the fact that the horse had been wide and in the clear up to that point. Little known fact but the kickback at Belmont originates spontaneously from the ground at all times unlike other tracks which require a galloping horse's hind hooves to send dirt clods flying into horses silly enough to be sitting directly behind another. This is because the dirt for the Belmont main track is sourced from the deserts of Mexico (hence 'Big Sandy') and is infested with jumping beans...

From there, Prat just needed to sit & wait for another genius to go all in so that he had his cue to make his bid. That came from the back courtesy of Luis Saez on Tapit Trice in an apparent nod to the brilliant ride perpetrated by Kent Desormeaux on Real Quiet in the 1998 Belmont Stakes (it was the 25th anniversary of that race, didn't you know?). Prat did not hesitate to match strides with that ill-timed move, which came with well over a half mile left to run.

Angel of Empire now found himself in between horses after all that effort to keep him in the clear. This is where the blinkers ended up being a life saver, as he was now unable to look either of his rivals in the eye as they slugged it out down the lane. This ensured that Prat was able to pull off his cunning plan...to see the Kentucky Derby form completely reversed as Hit Show & Tapit Trice made up the 5 & 7 lengths respectively they needed on Angel of Empire at Churchill Downs.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by zico20

You went from having a hard time finding a horse to hit the board to giving us the super cold. I have said for over 30 years you are the greatest handicapper I have ever met!

Well, I didn't say I bet much on the cold super.... But you may be correct, if somewhat pathetic, if I am the greatest handicapper you have ever met. You need to get out more!

Thought the 2-6-7 were the three key horses, but didn't think the 3 would fire. Seems like the Peter Pan indicates a liking for the track, if nothing else. Had a 3-2 exacta saver that I got nosed out of that would have been a break even return on investment. D'oh!

At the risk of sounding like the proverbial broken record, I don't think much of this year's 3YO crop - but maybe that's just the way racing is now. 30 years ago we had some horses that pointed for the spring classics, and were good enough to fire two or three times in a row. These days a horse has to tower over the competition and/or be running on something besides hay, oats and water to do well in the Triple Crown.

Mage or Forte or maybe even Arcangelo may turn out to be decent horses, but another year goes by where we have to "wait and see" past the Triple Crown. Guess we got spoiled with the likes of Alysheba, Bet Twice, Winning Colors, Risen Star, Easy Goer, Sunday Silence, etc. It's a different world.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by jocko699

I was all in with Hit Show in the KD. I'm all in with Arcangelo here.

Preach!

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Well, I didn't say I bet much on the cold super.... But you may be correct, if somewhat pathetic, if I am the greatest handicapper you have ever met. You need to get out more!

Thought the 2-6-7 were the three key horses, but didn't think the 3 would fire. Seems like the Peter Pan indicates a liking for the track, if nothing else. Had a 3-2 exacta saver that I got nosed out of that would have been a break even return on investment. D'oh!

At the risk of sounding like the proverbial broken record, I don't think much of this year's 3YO crop - but maybe that's just the way racing is now. 30 years ago we had some horses that pointed for the spring classics, and were good enough to fire two or three times in a row. These days a horse has to tower over the competition and/or be running on something besides hay, oats and water to do well in the Triple Crown.

Mage or Forte or maybe even Arcangelo may turn out to be decent horses, but another year goes by where we have to "wait and see" past the Triple Crown. Guess we got spoiled with the likes of Alysheba, Bet Twice, Winning Colors, Risen Star, Easy Goer, Sunday Silence, etc. It's a different world.

Not bagging on you, and it almost always seems this way, but the racing public always seems to fawn over the good ol' days of the 70s and 80s.

We had damn good horses in the 90s and 2000's. The significant drop off in horses being unable to race more than at least once a month is a 2015 or so forward phenomenon.

In 2013, we had Will Take Charge run in all 3 Triple Crown races, the Jim Dandy, Travers, and BC Classic. Granted, that is old school trainer D Wayne Lukas, but that simply doesn't happen less than a decade later. 2014 we had California Chrome that ran 9 times as a 3YO and nearly won the Triple Crown. 2015 we had American Pharoah and Frosted and Keen Ice. 2016 we had Gun Runner. And that is about where it died.

[MJC922]

Congrats to those who had the winner. I only hit a DD saver and made nothing. The only reason I even hit a saver is because I made a change-up on my DD ticket when I was doing 'look aheads' and saw National Treasure was sitting very chilly at 10-1 for almost the entire betting cycle (final was 9-1 in doubles) I figured no significant team Baffert money was evident at those odds.

What I did right at that point was I cancelled my tickets and swapped in Archangelo as a saver, but what I did wrong was I pressed even harder on Forte at that point. I also didn't press on 'Up to the Mark' in the first leg of it even though his last race would crush that field and wow, he sure ran back to that. Even a tiny press with him and I'd have done ok, still not great but ok. What I would've scored with is the 5-3 DD (Soldier Rising) obviously would've been nice but that race wasn't even close

Like the Derby, drawing a line through Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice was again the correct play IMO. Forte should've been good enough here if he's 'right' and I don't think he is, the Florida Derby was a very slight regression, part of that was evident when Mage went right by him on the turn and yesterday literally everyone got separation from him on the turn, he was just spinning wheels and not able to push off. If it isn't the bruise then if he were mine I'd be looking for something else being wrong, you don't win 6 of 7 when you can't apply pressure to rivals approaching the quarter pole. Something is off. He does bring it in the stretch, absolutely doesn't give up, nice horse... but I may be looking to bet against him from here on out until I see him take turns better.

Also very uncomfortable trip for Forte as far as the flow of the race went, I should've expected Hit Show to cause issues for Forte drawn outside of him, my bad there, that wasn't hard to see, if posts are reversed then Forte has a much more comfortable trip with options. Ended up with Forte being boxed and between horses a whole lot while sitting behind a very moderate pace. I saw the pace as moderate going in but expected Forte to be tracking in second or third behind National Treasure in a relatively clear first-flight with horses like Archangelo at least 3-4 lengths behind there, didn't work out, he was surrounded and ultimately shuffled way back. The only way it may have worked out better is if Irad had sent out of there with the intent to be a clear second early and then Hit Show would've sat just off him maybe a length or two back, hindsight is 20/20.

[judd]

Originally Posted by jocko699

I was all in with Hit Show in the KD. I'm all in with Arcangelo here.

[Bennie]

I did okay yesterday but after several hours of handicapping the last 2 days, talking after the Belmont with a friend, it occurred to both of us that there were only 2 horses that had run at Belmont before. Of which I had made a small note on one of my many scraps of paper, but never really factored into my actual handicapping. My friend does consider horses that ran at the same track as one of the factors in his handicapping but didn't use it as a lone selection yesterday. Only 2 that ran at Belmont, for those who don't want to go back and check themselves were Archangel and Forte. Was it that easy?

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by Bennie

I did okay yesterday but after several hours of handicapping the last 2 days, talking after the Belmont with a friend, it occurred to both of us that there were only 2 horses that had run at Belmont before. Of which I had made a small note on one of my many scraps of paper, but never really factored into my actual handicapping. My friend does consider horses that ran at the same track as one of the factors in his handicapping but didn't use it as a lone selection yesterday. Only 2 that ran at Belmont, for those who don't want to go back and check themselves were Archangel and Forte. Was it that easy?

I think that makes it too easy. I see lots of over-thinking the race in this thread. Most of the horses were a known entity. I’m not an expert on handicapping by using breeding etc, but this one stood out to me.

The winner was not a known entity. On only his fifth race, with a huge license to improve. I just thought this one still had more in him. I kept thinking about his sire in the 2017 Dubai Gold Cup. Arrogate was a late bloomer too.

Arrogate’s times at a mile and a quarter are incredible too. 1:59.36 in the Travers win in 2016. A 122 BSF. I believe a track record. Followed by 200.11 in the Breeders Cup Classic win. 120 BSF. Hell this horse might get better if he follows in his sires footsteps.

My software showed if he ran the exact same race as last time, he would eke out a win…..I figured he had the breeding for the distance and every right to improve. Hell, I don’t play very often but this one looked like somebody fired a flare and pointed at him for me.

[Robert Fischer]

Great job Ralph, Jocko and all who were on the right track

I didn't bet, and I didn't have had the Arcangelo.
Felt there was too good a chance of Forte or Angel of Empire, but some good models that at least gave respect to the .

Peter Pan - Bishops Bay is a solid horse for a supertrainer, and Bishops Bay had a dream pace scenario in contrast. In addition, although the scratch of Slip Mahoney brought the field down to 8 runners, Arcangelo was still very live on the board in the Peter Pan to be less than 3/1 off a 10/1ml.

[Bennie]

Ralph - I was trying to be some what funny. Thought the head against the brick wall fit. My friend uses the same track as part of his handicapping, more for separation when a couple horses figure very close. If one of them had a race over the track, he will lean that way. I loved the Arrogate breeding of this horse. For those who use thorograph, he also had the best last number, which was a 1. The only other who had run a 1 was Tapit Trice two races back. The only question was will he regress off the 1 or move forward again. If he moves forward or even equals the 1, he bests this field. I know the sheets guys look for patterns and not just best last but Arch 1-5, Angel 2-2, Forte 3-2, Hit Show 3-4 and Tapit Trice 5-1 were the best numbers. I moved tapit up a couple spots in case he ran back to the 1 two races back.I had Archangel and Angel of Empire as my live horses to cash the 2 day pick6 for $244. I also flat bet Arch to cover the difference in probable payouts. I did not hit the exacta, tri or super because I keyed Tapit and Forte in those as "insurance" as some like to call it.I had the race covered from all angles and lucky for me, i caught what was probably the best payout of them all. Not earth shattering by any means, but I did only invest $6.40 in the 2 day pick6. Single on Cody's wish and Up to The Mark.