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Old 07-05-2015, 09:02 PM   #31
sammy the sage
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5-2 now...although will have to admit today's pick/reasoning w/climate...might not have been the best of reasons...still something one must consider infrequently as it may be...
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Old 07-09-2015, 05:56 PM   #32
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7/9/15: Belmont R8

Havana getting all the early tote action getting bet down to 2/1 with the Classy Class the ML favorite right there at 3/1. In an OC $62.5n2x, I see both looking ahead to bigger and better while trying to land a win in this one and advance.

The 7F distance is what really gets me interested here. While both ran this distance in their last out, both finished well back in 11th and 4th respectively at this track. I'm sure one or both will rebound with a much more solid effort against less competition, but a win certainly isn't guaranteed.

The Doc Almon is running as well as he ever has coming in off of 2 victories at Monmouth and Parx. They have tried him at Belmont before 3 times with a lone 2nd, so he can run decently enough here while getting Jacobson in the barn and Cornelio on the mount.

However, I'll be leaning elsewhere with the Warrior's Crown. His last on Belmont Stakes day wasn't that bad against a pretty solid field. He came out of it with some solid works,a nd another move forward today could see him in the winner's circle at a nice 5-6/1 price.
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Old 07-09-2015, 06:03 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
7/9/15: Belmont R8

Havana getting all the early tote action getting bet down to 2/1 with the Classy Class the ML favorite right there at 3/1. In an OC $62.5n2x, I see both looking ahead to bigger and better while trying to land a win in this one and advance.

The 7F distance is what really gets me interested here. While both ran this distance in their last out, both finished well back in 11th and 4th respectively at this track. I'm sure one or both will rebound with a much more solid effort against less competition, but a win certainly isn't guaranteed.

The Doc Almon is running as well as he ever has coming in off of 2 victories at Monmouth and Parx. They have tried him at Belmont before 3 times with a lone 2nd, so he can run decently enough here while getting Jacobson in the barn and Cornelio on the mount.

However, I'll be leaning elsewhere with the Warrior's Crown. His last on Belmont Stakes day wasn't that bad against a pretty solid field. He came out of it with some solid works,a nd another move forward today could see him in the winner's circle at a nice 5-6/1 price.
Swing and a miss. Classy Class with a solid, professional, and easy win as he coasts home to a 1+ length victory over a late running Doc Almon. was an also ran along with the Havana in which CC ran them off their feet and could have won by 5 or more if need be.
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Old 08-08-2015, 11:44 AM   #34
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8/8/15

1st race at Saratoga...#6....Mail...trainer's leading jock bails...so will I...

6th also 'toga'....#4...Ocean Knight...whilst the best here...don't think this race is the intended target...more like a good work-out...might get paid...might not is my stance....thinking NEXT is the time to bet this one...
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:05 PM   #35
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correct on 1...scratch on the other...record now...6-2...
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Old 08-12-2015, 09:19 AM   #36
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8/12...Delmar stakes 7th race...#7 Pretty N Cool...a Baffert throw-out from the win spot......which is tough to do...still...last 2 works are NOT Baffert like....
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Old 08-12-2015, 09:35 PM   #37
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ouch...wrong on this one...record now 6-3...average...
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Old 10-03-2015, 10:48 AM   #38
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5th...Belmont...Honor Code #5...3/5...yes last was spectacular...yes he's won on mud before....BUTTTTT.......this horse has been ouchy and never put 3 good ones in a row++++today's race is NOT the target....
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Old 10-03-2015, 10:54 AM   #39
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I hope you're right, I took a swing against Honor Code today.
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Old 10-03-2015, 11:18 AM   #40
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Keeneland 6th..#3..Judy the Beauty..at 6/5...whilst bred for slop...hasn't done it yet+++many other's here also well bred for it++++her last 2...no excuses...+++this race is NOT her target... if she wins...I lose...
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Old 10-04-2015, 07:11 PM   #41
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record 8-3
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Old 10-30-2015, 10:37 PM   #42
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Keenland BC sat...notice didn't attempt to beat the "Map" on Fri...BUT...here goes...nor will I try to beat songbird...sat.

10th..Golden Horn..best horse..yes..but no Lasix lowers chances here..plus travel should catch up at some point..plus just might be a bit of race riding going on here..

11th..AP...not the fastest horse in the race...will get the best trip...which worries me...and they might seal and roll the track...which worries me...still think he gets beat tho...
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Old 02-13-2016, 10:00 AM   #43
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Final official record for late 2015 posted...9-4...or 70%...2/1 or less didn't win...had a few more for a redboard...not posted...such as private zones last...ect...not counted since not posted...

again the premise... to find horses to bet against...and then of course...find the right ones to bet on...I'll leave that part up to you

2016...got 2 today...

Tepin in Tampa...7/5 ML...think this is just a work-out...gut call...why else would Lexie Lou be in the same race...bigger plans for both in the future...

Calculator in S.A....again bigger plans going longer...trainer has publically stated NOT fully cranked for this...off surgery for cracked ankle...have to let a 4/5 or lower beat me here...
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Old 02-13-2016, 12:26 PM   #44
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I didn't look over the Calculator race that carefully, but despite the time off due to injury, he may still be below even money and that is a very bad bet, in my opinion.
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Old 02-13-2016, 02:42 PM   #45
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Love your call on Tepin. She has been an ATM machine for me dating back to her runner-up in the G2 San Clemente. She rolls in off of back-to-back career races, so there is little doubt she won't be fully cranked and they are likely just looking to get her feet under her in 2016. Lexie Lou is interesting, but the Lovely Loyree has me interested.

Calculator is a must bet against. Going with the newbie Fusaichi Samurai. This might be a pretty damn good horse.
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