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Old 04-15-2016, 08:11 AM   #1
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Race of the Day -- TRACK PHANTOM

4/15/16

OP 7th– BACHELOR STAKES 150K, 6F DIRT


6 COUNTERFORCE 2-1
2 I WILL SCORE 5-2
1 WILL MUNNINGS 9-2
7 MORNING FIRE 5-2

PICK: #6 COUNTERFORCE (2-1)
Female tree is impressive. 2nd dam, is a half to Rags to Riches, Jazil and Casino Drive, all superstar deep route types. This one ran too good to lose in his last start. He dueled with other speed, put that away, was game with the winner (who got a perfect trip). 4 next out winners from debut at OP.

VALUE: #1 WILL MUNNINGS (9-2)
Could get the run of the race. He will break inside and has tactical speed. The quicker runners will be head to head and soften each other up some. Broke 1st from the gate in 3 of last 4. Was 2nd to Derby hopeful Whitmore.

A) 2,6
B) 1,7
C) 3,4
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Old 04-16-2016, 07:27 AM   #2
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4/16/16

KEE 6TH– OPT CLM 62K, 1M DIRT


4 STREET SONG 8-1
5 ESKENFORMONEY 8-5
6 FLEET BERTIE 8-1
3 GENRE 6-1

PICK: #4 STREET SONG (8-1)
She comes out of a sneaky tough race at Tampa. The runner-up in there came back to win a 50k stks at FG over Ahh Chocolate. The 4th place finisher came back to win at opt clm at TAM. 7th ran 2nd by a half to stakes type Pangburn in a 75k stks. Works are eye popping.

VALUE: #6 FLEET BERTIE (8-1)
Woke up nicely at 8-1 in her last start before the layoff. She comes in here with a sharp worktab for a trainer who wins at a very high % with comebackers w/ a large ROI.

A) 4,5
B) 2,3,6
C) 1,8,9
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Old 04-17-2016, 07:40 AM   #3
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FREE KEE FULL CARD ANALYSIS SHEET AT WEBSITE IN SIGNATURE

4/17/16

KEE RACE 4 -- MSW 60K, 1M TURF (2:45 ET)


8 TWENTY FOUR SEVEN 10-1
11 NANA LOOCH 3-1
2 BLINDSIDED BLUES 12-1
12 GO NAVY GO 12-1

VALUE: #8 TWENTY FOUR SEVEN (10-1)
3rd start for this new gelding. He was in serious traffic when trying to close into a slow pace in the debut (notice recent Ark Derby winner was 2nd). Was bet in 2nd start but was away two lengths slow. Made up late ground for a close 5th. Dam is half to 1997 BC Turf, $3M earner, Chief Bearhart.

VALUE: #2 BLINDSIDED BLUES (12-1)
He has been on the turf twice and in both starts he was off a bit slow and made up a lot of ground in the middle of the race before tiring a bit in the late going. Has a pretty decent turf pedigree with the Chester House influence. Cuts back a bit and draws well on the inside. Maybe for a small share.

A) 8,11
B) 2,4,6,7,12
C) 1,5,9,10
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Old 04-19-2016, 10:19 PM   #4
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4/20/16 KEE 7TH– ALLW 66K, 1M 1/16 TURF

8 MOJO RISIN 7-2
5 NO FAULT OF MINE 8-1
7 OL’ FASHION GAL 3-1
10 PRETTY FANCY 12-1

PICK: #8 MOJO RISIN (7-2)
Another Chad Brown Euro import with his top call rider, Castellano, up. Together they are 7 for 17 (11 in the money) with Euro shippers. This filly was in the Group 1 Longines. The filly who finished right in front of her, Queen’s Jewell, came back and ran 3rd in the BC F&M Turf behind Stephanie’s Kitten. Sharp works.

VALUE: #5 NO FAULT OF MINE (8-1)
Dam was a stakes placed grass runner. Comes out of a race when 2nd to a 415k, G2 winner. 2nd in the G2 Golden Rod at this distance. Trainer is excellent with turf runners. Big name rider.

A) 5,8
B) 7,10
C) 1,2,6,9
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Old 04-22-2016, 07:58 AM   #5
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4/22/16 KEE 6th– MSW 60K, 1M 1/16 TURF

2 MANITOULIN 5-1
1 SIR DUDLEY DIGGES 3-1
11 KING’S PLAYER 10-1
7 WAR ORDER 9-2

PICK: #2 MANITOULIN (5-1)
This is the move that the breeding calls for. The dam was a superstar on grass. She moved from the dirt to the turf and promptly went 6 for 7 to finish her career, including win in the BC F & M Turf. Massive rider move and a few very sharp drills for a trainer who is 21% going dirt to turf. Expect a serious move forward.

VALUE: #11 KING’S PLAYER (10-1)

Bred to love the grass and has had legitimate excuses. 1st time gelding should come back more relaxed.

A) 1,2
B) 3,6,7,11
C) 5,10
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Old 04-23-2016, 06:39 AM   #6
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4/23/16 KEE 5th– MSW 60K, 1M 1/16 TURF

2 PRIVATE CLIENT 10-1
5 CHERUB 9-2
12 TRY YOUR LUCK 5-1
3 TIZTHESOUND 3-1

PICK: #2 PRIVATE CLIENT (10-1)
Proctor knows this female line well. He’s had the dam, many of the sibs and 2nd generation runners. All are turfers led by the sibs of this one, Keertana (millionaire), Diversy Harbor, Snow Top Mountain (both graded stakes on turf. Sire is a grass influencer. Works are very typical for a Proctor 1st timer. He is 2 for last 4 at this distance on turf with a debut runner.

VALUE: #12 TRY YOUR LUCK (5-1)
You can toss her last start as it was on a dirt track and she stumbled badly leaving out of the gate. She ran well in all 3 turf starts prior to it. Lanerie up for a sharp 10-1 3rd two back.

A) 2,5
B) 3,12
C) 6,8,9,10
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Old 04-24-2016, 07:16 PM   #7
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4/24/16 LRC 5th– OPT CLM 62K, 1M DIRT (3:58)

1 BACKINTHEACADEMY 10-1
2 DIVINA COMEDIA 9-5
5 NITE DELITE 5-2
3 BIG BREAK 4-1


PICK: #1 BACKINTHEACADEMY (10-1)
She may be a tad cheap compared to the rest of these but she won’t get a better pace set-up for her late run. Basically, every other runner wants to be near the front. She’ll be all alone waiting for the pace setters to tire. Finished in front of the mare to her outside two starts back. Notice her last win came a year ago at 23-1 closing from last in a 6 horse field.

VALUE: #3 BIG BREAK (4-1)

A) 1,2
B) 3,5
C) 2,6
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Old 04-27-2016, 06:59 AM   #8
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4/27/16 KEE 7th– OPT CLM 80K, 6F DIRT (4:24 ET)

3 WAKE UP JOE 12-1
6 NO HIDING PLACE 1-1
1 BREWING 3-1
4 GRANDE BASIN 7-2

PICK: #3 WAKE UP JOE (12-1)
There is speed to the inside and outside in this small field. This one can sit handy right up near the lead or finish late from farther back. He is a new gelding. Race he comes out of was strong, were 3 next out winners (2 stakes). Great HAW drills.

VALUE: #4 GRANDE BASIN (7-2)
3 wins in a row here and 4 of his last 5. He now moves to trainer Dallas Stewart. The race may produce a quick pace. He’ll be coming from far back. La-bred is in great form. Picks up some pieces late.

A) 1,3,6
B) 4,5
C) 2
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Old 04-28-2016, 06:43 AM   #9
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4/28/16 LRC 7TH– CLM 8K, 5.5F DIRT (4:58 PT)

3 HAWK’S EYES 12-1
7 MR. ITKINS 7-2
9 JOHNS JOURNEY 5-2
2 MATTY’S TRIBAL 5-1

PICK: #3 HAWK’S EYES (12-1)
Expecting to see this one more ahead in his second start off the break. He just ran evenly at 5F in his last start and that came with an apprentice up. He gets a huge rider move to Pereira who was up for the last win. Extra half of a furlong should also come in handy. Pace of this race should be a fast one, setting up late closing kick.

VALUE: #2 MATTY’S TRIBAL (5-1)

A) 3,7,9
B) 2
C) 1,5,8
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Old 04-29-2016, 07:25 AM   #10
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4/29/16 LRC 8th– MDN CL 30K, 5.5F DIRT (8:28 ET)

4 HOLLYWOOD RIVIERA 8-1
7 QUALITY KAY 3-1
9 EVENING AGAIN 5-2
3 LIL JESSICA 5-1

PICK: #4 HOLLYWOOD RIVIERA (8-1)
Dam was a stakes placed sprinter and 3 sibs are sprinters, as well. This is a 1ster for Rollins. This trainer has had 12 first timers on dirt sprinting. He won with 5 of them (including the only 2 he started here at LRC, both in MSW). Works are on typical side for him. Doesn’t face much.

VALUE: #3 LIL JESSICA (5-1)
If the two top choices, both 1sters, don’t fire, this filly has a chance. Tired setting the pace in last. Might just keep going.

A) 4,7
B) 3,9
C) 2,5,8
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Old 04-30-2016, 08:44 AM   #11
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4/30/16 LRC 5th– MDN CLM 30K, 5.5F DIRT (6:58 ET)

1 JOHANN’S COMMAND 12-1
10 KEEPING THE FAITH 3-1
3 GONE WITH IT 5-2
5 CALVERT STREET 4-1

PICK: #1 JOHANN’S COMMAND (12-1)
Willing to forgive the route try last out when he couldn’t get the lead and was wide. Race two back was decent. Went blazing fast and tired but 4th and 5th in there won back at md clm 25k and in a MSW (at 17-1) both at GG. Digs in late.

VALUE: #10 KEEPING THE FAITH (3-1)
Think the cutback is the key with this one. He didn’t carry his speed going a route twice but has finished better in 3 sprints when facing better runners.

A) 1,3,10
B) 5,11
C) 2,8
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Old 05-01-2016, 09:16 AM   #12
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5/1/16 -- LRC RACE 5– MSW 45K, 6F DIRT (3:58 PT)

8 FANTASY OF LUCK 3-1
9 UNUSUALLY TALENTED 7-2
4 ROCKY’S RAINBOW 4-1
7 WARM ENDOWMENT 9-2

PICK: #8 FANTASY OF LUCK (3-1)
Baffert runner cost 180k and went off at less than 2-1 in both starts. She flopped in both. Her strong works and addition of Bejarano indicate we’ll see her best here today. Her 1:10.3Hg work came along w/ Toews On Ice, who won a 100k at CD Sat.

VALUE: #4 ROCKY’S RAINBOW (4-1)
Worth noting that Desormeaux lands on this one despite not riding for Puype all that much. The works are strong for this and the rider upgrade is pretty big. Drew the 9 post in debut, draws better today.

A) 8
B) 4,7,9
C) 3,5,6
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Old 05-04-2016, 02:13 PM   #13
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5/5/16 SA 6th– MSW 56K, 6F DIRT (4:30 PT)

9 HALEY’S COMMENT 15-1
8 WALTZING 4-1
3 EMMZY 5-2
7 RIZZI’S HONORS 4-1

PICK: #9 HALEY’S COMMENT (15-1)
Mulhall is pretty decent with first timers but most of her wins came in maiden clm company. She did team up with a debut winner for these owners and ridden by Pedroza back in Feb (Indavidualist) who won wire to wire with a 90 Beyer at 4-1. She sports an eye catching 59.3 workout.

OTHER: #8 WALTZING (4-1)
Mandella not overly proficient with first timers dirt sprinting in a MSW (2 for 31). This one will be better on turf but can’t look past the steady stream of lightning fast drills on the main track. Check tote.

A) 8,9
B) 3,4,7
C) 1,5,6,10
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Old 05-07-2016, 03:34 PM   #14
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KENTUCKY DERBY (G1) $2ML – 1M 1/8 DIRT (5:49 ET)

2 SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS 20-1
17 MOR SPIRT 10-1
10 WHITMORE 20-1
13 NYQUIST 4-1
20 DANZING CANDY 15-1


#2 SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (20-1)
Closers like this one rarely ever win the Derby outright. Quite often, they make a serious late rally to pick up some pieces without really challenging for the top spot. But, I think this one is different. He has the kind of very late, and I mean in the final 100 yards late, acceleration that is rarely seen by a deep closer in the US. His late run in the Southwest was breathtaking. He was far back with half a furlong to go and he was moving two to their one late. Suffered major trouble in the Rebel 2 back and some traffic and wide in the Ark Derby last out. In both cases, he was taking lengths off of Creator in the final stages. Clockers have him working superbly. The Arkansas pipeline was very tough this year with full, deep fields. He drew the 13 and 14 in back to back races there. There are things to like, including likely 20-1 odds. If the pace percolates, there will be breaking news late.

#1 MOR SPIRIT (10-1)
Baffert and Stevens have won the Derby 7x (once together in '97 with Silver Charm). This runner is very reminiscent of Silver Charm. Both he and Silver Charm came into the Derby off of back to back runner-up finishes in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. Watching the replays of his three-year old races, it is quite clear the strategy was to allow Mor Spirit to run just fast enough to earn points for the Derby and save as much horse as they could. He was a 650,000 purchase, quite a lot for a Pa-bred. Baffert himself did the bidding and, reportedly, really wanted him after he flashed a 10.1 furlong as a two-year old in training. He should be in a prime spot early. With the best connections.

#10 WHITMORE (20-1)
As mentioned with Suddenbreakingnews, the Arkansas Derby prep season was the strongest top to bottom anywhere. This one found some serious traffic and difficulties in many of those starts. He did hang a bit in his races but with Espinoza up, he might be sitting closer to the pace and that will be a very good thing. Has always looked like a serious runner. Could be overlooked at 30-1 in here.

#3 NYQUIST (4-1)
Nothing but good things with him, except for maybe the price. He’s undefeated and won the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in superb fashion. He really opened some eyes with that win. He beat 2nd favorite, Exaggerator in the San Vicente. Didn’t think he did much in the Florida Derby but he did take care of business professionally. He should be on every ticket, defensively, at the very least.

A) 2,4,10,11,13,17
B) 3,4,5,9,19
C) 6,14,15
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Old 05-08-2016, 02:38 PM   #15
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5/8/16 -- SA 8th– CLM 8K, 1M 1/16 DIRT (4:13 PT)

5 BLUEGRASS REWARD 6-1 Bednar
2 CASS IN STONE 5-2 Pereira
4 SENNA 5-2 Baze
3 NO SURRENDER 12-1 Elliott

PICK: #5 BLUEGRASS REWARD (6-1)
Was in too high last out and didn’t help matters when he was wide into the lane. Forget the two races at TUP when with a 9% outfit. This trainer had him four back and he ran huge for 2nd by head after setting the pace. Could go wire to wire here.

OTHER: #3 NO SURRENDER (12-1)
Can completely toss last as there was a spill in the race and this one was forced out badly. Couldn’t make up ground back of a slow pace two back. All 3 wins came on dirt. Playable.

A) 2,4,5
B) 1,3,8
C) 6,7
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