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Old 07-08-2016, 11:59 AM   #46
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7/8/16 - SA R1 – MDN CLM 75K, 5F DIRT (1:30 PT)

4 MR LARSON 9-5
2 ZEN DEPUTY 4-5
5 CURLY’S WATERFRONT 5-1
1 DUDE’S DUDE 4-1

PICK: 4 MR LARSON (9-5)
This is the first runner to come back out of the maiden race on June 10th. Winner was a Bonde well-meant first timer who was working well. That race could come back strong. 110k purchase last year is adding blinkers and working very well.

VALUE: 5 CURLY’S WATERFRONT (5-1)
Trainer has had 5 first timers on dirt in the last two years. He has 1 win (14-1), 1 second (51-1) and two others ran 4th at long odds. Gets the best post draw, will allow Garcia options from the gate. Just a 16k purchase. This is a good debut spot.


A) 2,4
B) 5
C) 1
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Old 07-09-2016, 05:22 AM   #47
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Belmont, Santa Anita and Canterbury full card analysis available at the website in the signature below.

7/9/16 - SA R4 – OPT CLM 62K, 1M DIRT (2:59 PT)

4 SAMMY MANDEVILLE 4-1
1 FIRING LINE 4-5
6 KRISTO 7-2
2 CONQUEST COBRA 8-1

PICK: 4 SAMMY MANDEVILLE (4-1)
Clocker reports are not very high on the work being done by Firing Line. So, we will give him one. This deep closer was much improved in last, 2nd off a layoff. It could be a quick pace and expect to see him flying. G3 placed horse is improving.

SECOND: 1 FIRING LINE (4-5)
Runner-up to American Pharoah in the Kentucky Derby hasn’t been seen since the Preakness. The clocker reports have been less than inspired by what he has been doing in the AM. Clearly the best in the race but likely not 100% cranked up.


A) 4
B) 1
C) 2,3,5,6
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Old 07-10-2016, 02:42 AM   #48
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7/10/16 - SA R3 – OPT CLM 20K, 6.5F DIRT (2:29 PT)

1 DIS SMART CAT 6-5
6 BAKO SWEETS 6-1
3 TUSCANY BEAUTY 5-2
4 JAN’S SPIRIT 4-1

PICK: 1 DIS SMART CAT (6-5)
Looked untouchable after her first two starts. Set a quick pace going a mile last time out but tired at 3-5. She did battle on gamely. 5th beaten 18 in that race, ran 2nd for 25k claiming nw2l next out at 6-1 (Friday). Love the route speed + cutback.

VALUE: 6 BAKO SWEETS (6-1)
Rolled in her debut at 12-1. Might have bled in her 2nd start as she showed early speed and stopped and got Lasix for the 1st time next out. Sloppy track when in with better in last. Back to fast dirt here should produce better effort. Price play.

A) 1
B) 3,6
C) 4,5
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Old 07-15-2016, 02:01 AM   #49
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DEL MAR

7/15/16 - DMR R1 – CLM 12K, 1M DIRT
3 SUCCSSFL RUNNER 3-1
9 ACCELERANT 4-1
1 HADFUNLASTNIGHT 7-2
6 TIZ JOLIE 4-1

(PICK) 3 SUCCSSFL RUNNER (3-1)
Claimed in last by a high % outfit for 8k. He’s never been out of the money in 11 starts. Notice the 2nd place finisher was nearly 10 from the rest of the field. Hartman is 30% with all runners for owners. He has a perfect running style for the race flow that will develop.

(VALUE) 9 ACCELERANT (4-1)
The trainer has been cold in 2016 but is 4 for 16 (25%) first off the claim. He didn’t beat much in the win last out but did it with style. His two races off the layoff have been the best he’s had since ’14.

A) 1,3,9
B) 2,6
C) 4,10
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Old 07-16-2016, 02:42 AM   #50
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Full card analysis sheets for Del Mar, Canterbury (Extreme Day) and the Best Bets of the Day -- Click on link in signature.....

DEL MAR

7/16/16 - - DMR R1 – CLM 16K, 6F DIRT
5 WADE 5-2
2 STORMIN TRICK 2-1
4 BROTHER SOLDIER 4-1
3 DESERT EXPRESS 15-1

(PICK) 5 WADE (5-2)
Desormeaux will have options w/ this one. He has the kind of early speed to run with the main pace but can also rate kindly right up on the pace. Winner in last won a starter 40k two prior. He’s gone off at 6-5 or less 8x. Have to like it that he’s run well for this rider.

(VALUE) 3 DESERT EXPRESS (15-1)
Might not be quick enough but it might be a perfect race flow for him here. He cuts back and there are a few that might go at it early on. Pedroza was up for a solid 3rd at 21-1 4 back. Under in exotics.

A) 2,5
B) 3,4
C) 1,6
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Old 07-16-2016, 08:04 PM   #51
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Longshot play of the day!!

DEL MAR R8 – MSW 63K, 5F DIRT
4 TAP ON A STAR 20-1
9 LOVELY LINDA 15-1
6 GO BABY RUN 4-1
10 LA VITESSE 7-2

(PICK) 4 TAP ON A STAR (20-1)
Trainer Molly Pearson brought in one two-year old debut starter at DMR for these owners. That was 3 years ago and that filly won at 45-1, wire to wire, with a similar worktab. Dam was a solid stakes winner in the Mn-bred ranks (she won 250k). Could lite up the tote.

(VALUE) 9 LOVELY LINDA (15-1)
Eoin Harty is 7 for 79 with debut 2YO’s in MSW sprinting. But 6 for 22 in that category in the last yr. Clearly, he’s changed his training to have them ready for first start. Is half to stakes type Lt Colonel.

A) 4,6,9
B) 3,8,10
C) 1,5,7
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Old 07-17-2016, 10:06 AM   #52
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7/17/16 - DEL MAR R2 – CLM 20K, 1M 1/16 DIRT

1 THANKSGIVING DAY 7-2
4 BIG TIRE 3-1
6 DIVE DOWN 6-1
7 ROMAN TIZZY 5-1

(PICK) 1 THANKSGIVING DAY (7-2)
Form is rock solid right now. He blew the start 3 and 4 back. Was steadied on the turf, a surface he just hasn’t handled, 5 back. Won at 14k six back. So, he’s found a level he can run at. Beyer figs are above par for the level. Might be able to save ground from the rail.

(VALUE) 6 DIVE DOWN (6-1)
He’s 2 for 2 at the distance and was able to carry his speed going a mile and 1/8 three back. Was a claim for 16k by Palma in his last start which was clearly to bring him to Del Mar. Pace factor here.

A) 1,4
B) 6,7
C) 2,3,5
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Old 07-20-2016, 01:14 AM   #53
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7/20/16 DEL MAR R1 – MDN CLM 40K, 6.5F DIRT (2:00)

4 DREAMY MARTINI 4-1
7 AGRONOMY 5-2
1 ELEGANT STREET 8-1
5 ZEALOUS TALE 3-1

(PICK) 4 DREAMY MARTINI (4-1)
Last time this one was sprinting, he ran 2nd at 17-1 on the turf at Santa Anita. It was a career best effort for him. He was on a soft turf track from the outside 10 post two back. Was wide again on that class drop in last. Think he deserves a long look with cutback and move to dirt.

(VALUE) 1 ELEGANT STREET (8-1)
Drops into the claiming ranks. Works at LA were pretty decent and he has a few efforts that would put him in the mix in this spot. There were 3 next out winners from his last start (3 more top 3). He fits well with these. Will be a decent price.

A) 1,4,7
B) 5,6
C) 2,3
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Old 07-21-2016, 07:27 AM   #54
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7/21/16 -- DEL MAR R1 – CLM 25K, 1M DIRT (2:00)

4 FAR OUT KAILEE 2-1
5 WARREN’S T. BAZE 5-2
2 MELVILLE 10-1
3 GUNSLINGER 9-5

(PICK) 4 FAR OUT KAILEE (2-1)
Only win (or even in the money for that matter) came right here almost exactly a year ago at this same distance. Takes a slight class drop after facing str allw foes. Blinkers off and a sharp worktab for his return. Would expect to see him off the pace here. Looks well-spotted.

(VALUE) 2 MELVILLE (10-1)
He has had excuses in his last two starts (and only two in So. Cal.). Stumbled at the start in last and really lost any shot when off at 46-1. Was in too high in the two back race and steadied, too. Makes just his 3rd start on dirt. Overlay likely.

A) 4
B) 2,3,5
C) 6
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Old 07-22-2016, 07:23 AM   #55
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7/22/16 DMR R1 – CLM 25K, 1M DIRT (4:00)

3 CUDDLE ALERT 3-1
6 SUMMER VEIL 2-1
5 CHEROKEE IN ME 5-1
4 MIDNIGHT LADY 6-1

(PICK) 3 CUDDLE ALERT (3-1)
Trainer has only 11 wins in the last five years but 3 of those wins came here at Del Mar. Big changes with this mare in here. Blinkers come off and a big jockey change to Baze. Drops in half for this as she tired vs better. Sports a bullet work at SLR. Should be a good fit with these.

(VALUE) 5 CHEROKEE IN ME (5-1)
Pretty honest filly who has earned 23x her purchase price in 2013. Claimed out of a win at OTP last out. Trainer has two wins at Del Mar and one of them was 1st off the claim. Nice running style for the race flow here. She’ll be a major player.

A) 3,5,6
B) 4
C) 1
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Old 07-23-2016, 04:56 AM   #56
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Saratoga, Del Mar and Canterbury full card reports at link in signature

7/23/16 DMR R1 – MSW 63K, 6F DIRT

7 EXHALE 2-1
2 PATRON 5-2
3 KETOS 7-2
4 FELDINI 8-1

(PICK) 7 EXHALE (2-1)
Eurton 3 for 35 in MSW with 1sters sprinting (discounting turf). Two of those wins were by 10 and 14 lengths. 500k purchase is a sibling to G1 Luminance (who won debut for Baffert). Dam is sibling to G1 routers George Vancouver and Saarland. You know they’re serious for the first start since Mike Smith has been up in the morning for these blistering drills. Has a big future.

(VALUE) 2 PATRON (5-2)
Baffert 1ster actually outworked multiple stakes winner, Toews on Ice on 6-26. Not much with the breeding. Elliott is 5 for 13 for Baffert. 2 of the wins were by daylight with 1sters. Looks live.

A) 2,7
B) 3,4
C) 1,5,6
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Old 07-24-2016, 09:23 AM   #57
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FULL CARD SHEETS FOR DEL MAR, SARATOGA, CANTERBURY PARK ARE AVAILABLE FOR SUNDAY, 7/24/16 AT THE LINK IN SIGNATURE

7/24/16 DMR R1 -- CLM 25K, 5.5F DIRT

4 AIMING STRAIGHT 5-2
5 BACK BEAUTY 2-1
3 SONG FOR JADE 12-1
6 STIR FRY 7-2

(PICK) 4 AIMING STRAIGHT (5-2)
Very sharp effort in her first start since October. 4th place finisher, beaten 6.5 lengths, came back to win easily (and beat #7 Nazareth in that win). She’s been a pretty consistent performer and is now at the right class level. She has a good record at Del Mar (3 for 4 in the top 3). Decent work pattern.

(VALUE) 3 SONG FOR JADE (12-1)
She has speed which is always a dangerous thing. She ran career best in last and did so w/ a wide post. Drops 7lbs with apprentice.

A) 4,5
B) 3,6
C) 2,7
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Old 07-27-2016, 08:02 AM   #58
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Full card analysis for both Saratoga and Del Mar for Wed, 7/27, at the link in the signature

7/27/16 - DMR R1 CLM 16K, 1M (2:00 PT)

6 WAHINE WARRIOR 4-1
3 QUINNETTE 7-2
5 KRISTINITE 5-2
1 TOOMANYTOMATOES 5-1

(PICK) 6 WAHINE WARRIOR (4-1)
Trainer McCanna is 29% first off the claim. He claimed Terrys Tom Cat from No. Cal. a year ago, brought him to Del Mar, and won at a price. We’re not sure if this one wants the dirt but her form is good and her style fits nicely for this race and for Desormeaux. This level in So. Cal. is dying for a new face.

(VALUE) 3 QUINNETTE (7-2)
Consistent mare for Ellis is a check earner. She has run well at this distance and she’s been in the exacta in 6 of her last 9 starts. Might get a cozy trip sitting midpack. Blanc knows her very well having been aboard her in her last 7 starts. Must use in the exotics.

A) 3,5,6
B) 1,2,4
C)
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Old 07-28-2016, 11:03 AM   #59
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Full card reports for Del Mar, Saratoga and Canterbury for 7/28 at link in signature below

7/28/16 - DMR R1 CLM 25K, 6F (2:00 PT)

7 TRIBAL ROAR 5-1
2 SAM SLICK 3-1
4 PROHIBITION REPEAL 5-2
6 DRAMATIC ANGEL 10-1

(PICK) 7 TRIBAL ROAR (5-1)
He’s run three times at Del Mar. The 1st time came in his second start and he stumbled at the start as the favorite. He won here in his 3rd start at 7-1 and then ran 2nd at 29-1 six starts back. Think he ran pretty well at near 50-1 in last. That was a strong field. The 2nd place finisher ran 2nd at the same level next.

(VALUE) 6 DRAMATIC ANGEL (10-1)
Interesting item. He was much the best 2nd time out at LRC. They tried him in a loaded 40k claimer. The winner returned to take an opt clm 75k and then run a close 4th in a 31k stakes at SA. 5th beaten 14 was beaten half a length at 16k from 12 post. Love the drills.

A) 1,2
B) 4,6
C) 1,3
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Old 07-29-2016, 02:15 PM   #60
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7/29/16 - DMR R5 CLM 8K, 1M DIRT (6:00 PT)

2 JONNY’S CHOICE 5-2
7 NAHEM 3-1
1 CARLOT COWBOY 20-1
9 MISDEED 8-1

(PICK) 2 JONNY’S CHOICE (5-2)
Glatt does well with these big class drops in low claiming (30%). He’s won 3 of 9 w/ 50% class drop at Del Mar. This one looks best suited for this level. He was 2nd two back in what turned out to be a sharp race. Winner won back at 16k and 3rd won back for 10k at 10-1 at SA. He’s 5 for 5 top 3 at the distance.

(VALUE) 1 CARLOT COWBOY (20-1)
Don’t expect him to win this but he makes a decent play under in the exotics. He comes out of the same race as the top choice when he tired some at 23-1. Gets a 10 pound allw with the apprentice rider aboard. Last win came at 10k so he’s back at the right level.

A) 2
B) 1,7,9
C) 3,4,5,6,10
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