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Old 07-30-2016, 12:59 PM   #61
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7/30/16 - DMR R8 CLM HIRSCH-G1 300K, 1 1/16 DIRT

1 BEHOLDER 1-5
2 STELLAR WIND 5-2
3 ThE DREAM 20-1
5 DIVINA COMEDIA 15-1

(PICK) 1 BEHOLDER (1-5)
I mean…c’mon! What else can you say about this all-world champion mare? She’s on an 8 race winning streak and has hardly been tested in those wins. She has good speed and draws the rail. She clearly beat her main rival, Stellar Wind, in her last start. It’s a major upset if she’s beat.

(VALUE) 3 THE DREAM (20-1)
If she can run at all, she’s got a shot to be an exotics player. The other 2 other than the top choices are just not in their league. Group 1 winner in Chile has been working extremely strong for this superstar trainer. He doesn’t enter them for the heck of it.

A) 1
B) 2
C) 3
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Old 07-31-2016, 01:01 PM   #62
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1 MSW 63K, 1M 1/8 TURF (2:00 PT)

3 TROJAN NATION 5-2
1 BRILLIANT LIGHT 12-1
9 PAPPOU 3-1
7 BEDEVILED 7-2

(PICK) 3 TROJAN NATION (5-2)
This is a great spot for this maiden. He’s got turf in the pedigree and clearly can handle the distance. Massive 82-1 runner-up in the G1 Wood. Not really disgraced in the BEL in his last start when overmatched. Back with his friends in this spot. Van Dyke was up in the morning drills. Looks very tough in here.

(VALUE) 1 BRILLIANT LIGHT (12-1)
Given the fact that the dam was a Group 1 winner on turf (won the QEII in Sha Tin and was 2nd a head in the G1 Bev D), you’d have to think the turf was the plan all along. We know Cassidy runners improve with racing. Very sneaky in here, 2 sprints to a long turf.

A) 3
B) 1,7,9
C) 5,6,8
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Old 08-03-2016, 10:15 AM   #63
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Full card analysis for both Saratoga and Del Mar today at the link in the signature

8/3/16 - DMR R1 CLM 12K, 5.5F DIRT (2:00 PT)

4 FLEXIBLE ETHICS 9-5
1 ALEXITA 8-1
7 HEAT ME 4-1
5 RADIANT JOURNEY 7-2

(PICK) 4 FLEXIBLE ETHICS (9-5)
Big efforts in both starts for O’Neill. She was claimed for 20k three back and ran well at the higher levels in the last two. So the drop here is ok. Runner-up two back won easily or 32k straight claiming here at DMR. She’ll face other speed and adds half of a furlong. Likely winner but will need to be at her best.

(VALUE) 1 ALEXITA (8-1)
She’s clearly better than her last start. She won at 17-1 vs much better company 2 back and earned a Beyer in line with this type of a race. 2nd place finisher two back returned to win a str allw at 6-1 (87 Beyer) and was nose back in alw 63k here. Needs a clean break.

A) 1,4
B) 5,7
C) 3,6
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Old 08-04-2016, 02:51 PM   #64
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ALL 3 TRACKS (CBY, SAR, DMR) ARE FREE TODAY AT LINK IN SIGNATURE

DMR 8/4/16 R7 OPT CLM 80K, 1M 1/16 TURF (5:03 PT)
6 HOW UNUSUAL 3-1
8 SWEET HALORY 8-1
7 THAT’S A LADY 5-1
10 NINE POINT NINE 7-2

(PICK) 6 HOW UNUSUAL (3-1)
In the Sandy Blue, she was last for most of the running before she ducked to the inside and was full of run. Just then, another horse came in on her and nearly knocked the rider off. She lost all chance there. She has a big late kick and this turf definitely plays to the deep closers. She’ll get an honest pace here.

(VALUE) 8 SWEET HALORY (8-1)
Third time starter goes to the turf for her 1st time in here. She has Halory Hunter and Van Nisterlrooy (a 3 for 6 graded stakes winning turfer) in the female tree. Dam won 500k in her career. Winner in last ran 2nd to Baffert trained, Luminance last weekend. Must use.

A) 6
B) 4,5,7,8,10
C) 1,2,9
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Old 08-05-2016, 03:01 AM   #65
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Full cards for Sar, Dmr, Cby at link in signature

DMR 8/5/16 R1 MDN CLM 32K, 5.5F DIRT (4:00 PT)

2 FEEL FREELY 5-2
7 RAVIZZONE 4-1
1 RED APPLE 4-1
5 REWARD OF ROSES 7-2

(PICK) 2 FEEL FREELY (5-2)
She faced open class MSW in her debut and did make a decent middle move before tiring in the lane. That was a much, much tougher race and the class relief, and getting a race under her belt, should make her very tough in this spot. She comes back with a decent 5F drill. Expecting an improved effort here.

(VALUE) 7 RAVIZZONE (4-1)
The race the #1 and #5 come out of is not a good race and was far too slow to take very seriously here. Eurton doesn’t win with first timers very often (6%) but this would seem to be a good spot for one. 32k purchase is in for that price. Decent drills and a hot rider.

A) 2
B) 7
C) 1,5
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Old 08-06-2016, 07:52 AM   #66
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FULL CARD ANALYSIS FOR SARATOGA, DEL MAR, MOUNTAINEER AND CANTERBURY FOR SATURDAY, 8/6/16 AT LINK IN SIGNATURE

DMR 8/6/16 R3 CLM 16K, 5.5F DIRT (3:03 PT)

5 MIA’S STORM 7-2
6 ANGEL LANE 9-5
2 HOLIDAYINCAMBODIA 5-1
7 ESMERALDA BELLE 12-1

(PICK) 5 MIA’S STORM (7-2)
Big closer goes back to the rider who was up for the 3rd place finish 3 back. She takes big drop in class for this and will get a fast pace to close into. Big cutback in distance might force her to move sooner than she is used to. Clockers say she is getting better in the AM. She’s at the lowest level of her career today.

(VALUE) 2 HOLIDAYINCAMBODIA (5-1)
Seems like a very honest filly for this level. The only poor run in her career was on turf three starts ago. Blinkers were added for the first time in last and she bobbled at the start of the race. There are a few efforts early on that would win this race. Should be a player.

A) 2,5,6
B) 4,7
C) 8
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Old 08-07-2016, 03:56 AM   #67
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DMR 8/7/16 R3 MDN CLM 20K, 7F DIRT (3:03 PT)

3 BUZZER BEATER 3-1
1 ALWAYS DANGEROUS 9-5
4 IF YOU BELIEVE 5-2
6 SPREAD THE JOY 7-2

(PICK) 3 BUZZER BEATER (3-1)
Hartman hasn’t exactly gotten off to a quick start here but this filly should get his 1st win at the meet. The filly and mare low claiming group in So. Cal. is awfully weak. The races this one was running in at CD and OP tower over what she’ll face in here. Runs by them.

(VALUE) 6 SPREAD THE JOY (7-2)
Blinkers come off today after she really ran a big race last out. It was her first against a 20k claiming group. The winner flopped in a return vs 25k nw2l. 3rd came back to run 4th vs this same level on Friday. Cal-bred faced large fields in every start. Should get a slice.

A) 1,3
B) 4,6
C) 5
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Old 08-10-2016, 05:35 AM   #68
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DMR 8/10/16 R1 OPT CLM 62K, 5F TURF (2:00 PT)

4 PAY THE FINE 5-1
5 BOTTLE ROCKET 2-1
6 CHIPS ALL IN 5-2
1 RANGI 3-1

(PICK) 4 PAY THE FINE (5-1)
Was traveling very well on the rail in his last start. He moved to the leader early in the stretch but was steadied right out of the race. Draws much better here. O’Neill went 3 for 27 to start ’15 DMR before rattling off 5 of 6 wins early Aug.

(VALUE) 6 CHIPS ALL IN (5-2)
The way this race shapes up, an outside post might be perfect. He won 3 of 4 at the distance before last. He was favored in common race won by Why Two. He’ll benefit from quick and contested pace.

A) 4,5,6
B) 1
C) 2,3
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Old 08-11-2016, 11:58 PM   #69
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Full card analysis sheets for Del Mar, Saratoga and Canterbury for Friday, 8/12/16 at the link in the signature below

DMR 8/12/16 R1 MDN CLM 20K, 6.5F DIRT (4:00 PT)

2 TINIAN 5-1
5 CORRELATION 5-2
1 MOTHER FLOWER 20-1
3 JOURNEYTOTHESTARS 3-1

PICK – 2 TINIAN (5-1)
Drops out of MSW company where she ran very decently in her first two starts. Didn’t get away well in the debut. She ran on well for 3rd at 10-1 in 2nd start. Did very little in that last start. Blinkers come off and sports 2 solid works since. Expecting better effort.

VALUE – 1 MOTHER FLOWER (20-1)
Ran well at 20-1 in the debut. She was off slow but rallied into 2nd behind one won 2x for 25k afterwards. Didn’t really handle the move to mile. Blinkers caused her to go too quick. Blinkers off and a set of sharp drills.

A) 1,2,5
B) 3,4
C) 7,8
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Old 08-13-2016, 05:49 AM   #70
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Full card analysis reports for Del Mar, Saratoga, Canterbury and the Best Bets of the Day (which includes all 5 Arlington Park graded stakes) is available at the link in the signature below

DMR 8/13/16 R3 CLM 32K, 1M 1/16 TURF (3:03 PT)

5 HORIZONTALYSPEAKIN 6-1
3 BUYMEABOND 7-2
1 TE RAPA 5-2
7 UNUSUAL TASTE 8-1

PICK – 5 HORIZONTALYSPEAKIN
6YO gelding who ran a football field behind in the first off the claim for Glatt. Doesn’t it appear Glatt had a license to make a drop in class? Instead, blinkers off, better rider is up and a jump in class. Think Glatt feels he’s better than last. Stalks the early pace.

VALUE – 7 UNUSUAL TASTE
He’s a deep closer in a race that might fall apart late. Can excuse the effort two back as it was at 5F, not a distance he can make an impact in. Expected more from last but he’ll get a good trip behind the speed here.

A) 1,3,5
B) 7
C) 6,8
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Old 08-14-2016, 02:28 PM   #71
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DMR 8/14/16 R1 MDN CLM 50K, 6F DIRT (2:00 PT)

1 ATLANTIC SLEW 5-1
2 SPINDLE 5-2
7 LADY CLOUD 4-1
6 TOPAZ TIME 8-1

PICK 1 ATLANTIC SLEW
Despite showing nothing in the debut, she was favored in her next start. She steadied on the rail while tiring. Was off 9 months after that and really ran a big race at SA in her last start. She went :21.3 and was game for 3rd. 2nd came back to run 2nd twice, at same level and MSW. Flanks cheap speed.

VALUE 7 LADY CLOUD
Delgadillo likely had his choice between the two Garcia runners and stays with this one. She was right behind Spindle in her last at 27-1. The blinkers were off for the first time there. Exotics position almost a certainty.

A) 1,2,7
B) 3,6
C) 5
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Old 08-16-2016, 07:24 PM   #72
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Full card analysis sheets for both Saratoga and Del Mar are FREE for Wed, 8/17/16. Click the link in the signature.

1 CLM 12K, 5.5F DIRT (2:00)

2 ADIOS PRINCESS 7-2
6 YOU SLEEP ON THAT 7-2
5 SOONER TIME 3-1
4 KHALAYA 10-1

PICK 2 ADIOS PRINCESS (7-2)
It is worth noting that this rider, Lindsay, was aboard 2 others in their last race but decides to remain here. This filly had won 3 of 4 before a fading effort in last. She was facing 25k foes and now drops to the right level. She has good tactical speed and she’ll get a good trip today.

VALUE 6 YOU SLEEP ON THAT (7-2)
Ran here at the end of last month in the same race that two others come out of. She flashed early speed while 4 wide and then tired after chasing the fast pace. It was her first start in 3 months, needed the start. Talamo stays here.

A) 2
B) 4,5,6
C) 1,3
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Old 08-18-2016, 03:20 PM   #73
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DMR 8/18/16 R1 MDN CLM 62K, 5.5F DIRT (2:00)

2 NUKE LALOOSH 3-1
4 IDEAL 9-5
5 PAPA GULF 5-1
3 FOOLISH TO DECEIVE 10-1

PICK 2 NUKE LALOOSH (3-1)
Peter Miller is 26% with comebackers off of a 6 month or more layoff and starting back here at Del Mar. He’s 5 for 7 with such runners in a maiden claimer. Added blinkers last out and showed speed in key race that saw superstar, Exaggerator, win. Espinoza been up in works.

VALUE 5 PAPA GULF (5-1)
Hasn’t been out since November and comes in as a new gelding. Takes a drop in class but it isn’t like Sadler has given up on him. Gets to try dirt for the first time. Solid worktab for him and Sadler runners been very live at this meet.

A) 2
B) 4,5
C) 3
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Old 08-19-2016, 07:18 AM   #74
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DMR 8/19/16 R1 MSW 62K, 1M 1/16 DIRT (4:00)

1 CURLIN ROAD 3-1
2 TOP OF THE GAME 7-2
6 BOLLYWOOD 2-1
4 MAGICAL MYSTERY 5-2

PICK 1 CURLIN ROAD (3-1)
There are many in here that are hard to trust. Not this guy. He’s very honest and is coming in off his career best effort. He was helped by a fast pace to soften some of his foes but he did finish with interest in the first start that Kent D was aboard. Think pace may back up again.

VALUE 2 TOP OF THE GAME (7-2)
Ran well when beaten a head to a Baffert foe two back. That one has since come back to win an allowance at Belmont. Winner in most recent start ran 3rd in an allw at Saratoga next at 24-1. Benefits if the pace falls apart here.

A) 1
B) 2,6
C) 3,4,5
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Old 08-19-2016, 11:57 PM   #75
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Will have full card analysis for both Saratoga and Del Mar for Saturday (click on the link in the signature)

DMR 8/20/16 R6 DMR OAKS-G1 300K, 1 1/8 TURF (4:25)

7 HARMONIZE 9-2
5 BARLEYSUGAR 5-1
2 DECKED OUT 8-1
10 STAYS IN VEGAS 5-1

PICK 7 HARMONIZE (9-2)
Mott filly only off the board twice in her career. She added blinkers in last and often times 2nd time blinks is a positive angle. She stumbled at the start of the Edgewood but was really in full gear and getting to the top 2 late. Winner 8 for 9 (8 in a row). 2nd won a 100k at CD next.

VALUE 5 BARLEYSUGAR (5-1)
Her US debut was awfully good. She came in from midfield and drew off in the lane at over 10-1. Winner two back is 4 for 4 in her career and followed up that win with another at Royal Ascot beating 20 foes. Could be the real deal.

A) 2,5,7
B) 3,8
C) 1,11
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