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Old 03-04-2019, 11:04 AM   #31
delsully
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Disappointed with the Scroll but the money I lost I will now save in the next future pool. Bourbon War was the only horse that had decent closing speed but if he can't get the job done having race fall in his lap then I'm skeptical he can win going much longer. Toss all. Down to two CA horses unless something pops in a 9F prep.
The short stretch didn’t help him any. I’m going to take a wait and see approach before I narrow it down to 2 horses that have yet to run this year. Though, with Baffert’s history, I can see why you are.
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Old 03-04-2019, 11:14 AM   #32
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The short stretch didn’t help him any. I’m going to take a wait and see approach before I narrow it down to 2 horses that have yet to run this year. Though, with Baffert’s history, I can see why you are.
My hope is we get a couple unexpected strong closing horses in the final big six 100 point preps which might open the door for a Giacomo type Derby. The preps run so far this year have not shown me much which is why I'm leaning toward the pair of Bafferts. Game Winner has quintessential Derby breeding being a Raise A Native, Buckpasser-x, and family 1-x. Improbable looks great but the City Zip sire leaves doubt until I see a 9F result. The San Felipe is a paid workout for both. With potentially only four horses we may learn little. I probably shouldn't totally disregard Scroll either but I'm skeptical he'd be pointed towards the Derby at this point.
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Old 03-04-2019, 12:19 PM   #33
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“Yes, we are disappointed but there were no regrets that we picked this race,” said Juddmonte’s U.S. racing manager Garrett O’Rourke. “The options were limited. If we had tried to get him into an allowance race, it might not have filled and then our whole schedule would have been thrown off. I’m disappointed we got into a duel with a 100-1 shot, but that sort of thing happens. As Bill said, let’s turn the page and move on. Everybody felt he acquitted himself fairly well. We’ll just regroup and see how he comes out if and then discus the options.”

While O’Rourke said there are no definite plans to go on to the GI Florida Derby or to stay on the Kentucky Derby trail, he made it clear that the temptation to do so will probably win out at the end of the day.

“Prince Khalid is at a certain stage in his life and he has not won the Derby and neither has Bill,” O’Rourke said. “You don’t want to commit too early to not staying on the trail. The horse could show us a complete turn around in the next few weeks, so I think we’ll just stay the course of what we felt beforehand and just keep on following it along. Everyone totally trusts Bill and he knows there’s no pressure from us. If there are any ‘ifs’ we will back off, but if the horse drags us to the Derby it’s an option we want to keep open.

“Yes, for the time being, we are leaning towards staying on the Derby trail. Why would you not? The Derby is the Derby. With the Derby, you’ve got to get right down to the deadline before you pull yourself out. There is a feeling of disappointment that we got beat, but a good feeling that we still have a potentially special horse. We’re very confident we have a very good horse.”

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com...n-derby-trail/
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Old 03-04-2019, 12:41 PM   #34
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Thanks for that post MN. Perhaps Hidden Scroll is like Bodemeister. Same female family 23-b. Similar result in early March prep. Equibase did give HS a 107 figure which is an eight point drop from the previous but not a big bounce. I can't put my finger on it but the main track seemed to be running weird Saturday and perhaps that hindered him too.
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Old 03-04-2019, 12:56 PM   #35
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Thanks for that post MN. Perhaps Hidden Scroll is like Bodemeister. Same female family 23-b. Similar result in early March prep. Equibase did give HS a 107 figure which is an eight point drop from the previous but not a big bounce. I can't put my finger on it but the main track seemed to be running weird Saturday and perhaps that hindered him too.
Way faster pace probably responsible for the speed figure drop more than anything else.
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Old 03-04-2019, 02:29 PM   #36
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I wonder what Hidden Scroll's 'good race' looks like.

So far, I've seen two races from him, and neither gave me a straight-forward representation of what his good race is.

If I had to guess, I'd say that he does not look like a top Kentucky Derby or triple-crown-series contender at this point. He belongs in the 20 horse field (TBH I didn't just run down a 20-deep field, but 'F it, put him in the top-20), he's just not looking like a win-contender.

That was a long shot chance after his debut, but it couldn't be ruled out, and I'd say it's even less likely now.

I know it's a business and the talking heads did a great job, but I think I heard 'Justify' being mentioned 297 times between the previews and the broadcasts... Smart media. But Justify is a different animal. Justify also would have done a lot more, even with that hot pace. Nobody ran a big race in the FOY, but even if you make a case for Hidden Scroll, I can't see his performance numbers being much higher than the dream trip winner.
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Old 03-04-2019, 04:34 PM   #37
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Mott said the jockey for his next race was “undecided.”

https://www.drf.com/top-news/florida...-scroll-458535
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Old 03-04-2019, 05:08 PM   #38
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Mott said the jockey for his next race was “undecided.”

https://www.drf.com/top-news/florida...-scroll-458535
Smart move since JR has Game Winner. The connections should consider the Wood or Blue Grass. Extra week of rest and tracks that occasionally feature strong speed bias.
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Old 03-05-2019, 12:45 AM   #39
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His FOY kind of made sense.
He went to the front on his own......and stopped on his own.
If they bring him back in one of the major preps I expect he'll stop again.
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Old 03-06-2019, 10:45 PM   #40
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Mott said the jockey for his next race was “undecided.”

https://www.drf.com/top-news/florida...-scroll-458535
Joel Rosario Moving Tack Back East
With racing canceled indefinitely at Santa Anita, leading rider is headed to Florida.
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Old 03-09-2019, 12:24 AM   #41
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I like this horse for the Kings Bishop
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Old 03-10-2019, 03:56 AM   #42
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I would be surprised if HS comes back in another Derby prep.
Here's his come home final three quarters & final 1/16th in the Fountain of Youth:
22.4/24.3/26.2....[7.3].
That is not a good line....
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Old 03-10-2019, 10:19 AM   #43
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I would be surprised if HS comes back in another Derby prep.
Here's his come home final three quarters & final 1/16th in the Fountain of Youth:
22.4/24.3/26.2....[7.3].
That is not a good line....
That's what Justify's line looked like for his allowance win that made him the Pool 3 favorite. I thought people were nuts at the time.
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Old 03-10-2019, 12:30 PM   #44
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Hidden Scroll doesn't belong in the same sentence/paragraph/train-of-thought/crazy-train as a healthy Justify.

I think they've been compared 947 times since Hidden Scroll's best 'Mendelssohn impression/parody'.

However, Hidden Scroll's pace figures show that the pace in the FOY was fast enough early, that he deserves another chance. He didn't pass my eye-test, but even so, good horses go too fast all the time. There's a possibility he can at least be a top 20 horse if he's rated. There's also a smaller model which is interesting -- that work when he absolutely buried Tacitus (who won the Tampa Bay Derby with a favorable trip).

TLDR; If you're a Hidden Scroll fan, you still have hope.
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Old 03-10-2019, 12:50 PM   #45
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The Fountain of Youth and the Derby had comparable pace setups, obviously the Derby was a much longer race but in terms of pace figures they were in the same zip code....I guess the difference is probably an indication of just how good Justify was and not really a knock on Hidden Scroll.

I saw nothing yesterday that that I would take over a few of the horses from the FOY, including Hidden Scroll.
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