2018-2019 HONG KONG

[Nitro]

UPDATE- R#11- 1600M C3 (8F)T....2-11-6 W/ 5-13-9 …....5:45 AM EST

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE- R#11- 1600M C3 (8F)T....2-11-6 W/ 5-13-9 …....5:45 AM EST

9-5-8-13– Dutch Loss 84% Profit Margin-Passed / Quota reached

It turned out to be another profitable card with some decent Dutching opportunities. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 67%, and came from hitting 5 of 5 playable races.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. March 13, 2019… 54th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 67 Degrees Cloudy 50% of rain Wind: E 10 to 20mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190313_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 322 (Winners: 2nd & 4th, Second: 6th & 11th)
Race 1 Wish Come True (53-1)

Race 335 (Winners: 2nd 7 7th, Second: 11th)
Race 2 Shamport (4-1)

Race 361 (Winners: 1st & 7th, Second: 3rd & 6th)
Race 3 Travel Datuk (10-1)

Race 417 (Winners: 1st & 6th, Second: 3rd)
Race 3 Gracious Ryder (5-1)

Race 423 (Winners: 6th, 8th, 10th & 12th)
Race 8 Victory Machine (15-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Look Eras (9-1)
Race 7 Lucky Girl (7-1)
Race 8 Victory Machine (15-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 1 Show Mission (8-1)
Race 3 Aiolos (7-2)
Race 7 Good Beauty (5-2)

Horses for courses running tonight:
None

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 8 Fantastic Fabio (28-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 5 Universal Go Go (7-1) After just getting up in his last while breaking from the 11 post beating Happy Warrior (who has since come back and won his last race) drew another bad post with the 10 hole. He broke well and was looking to get over heading into the first turn but was unable to and had to race three wide without any cover. He then settled mid-pack on the backside on a track that favoured front runners all night while the eventual winner Merrygowin was sitting right behind the front runner. Still stuck three wide in the turn for home he was closing on the winner at the wire just missing by 3/4 a length. He only picked up 1 rating point which will allow him to race again at Class 4.

Race 7 All You Know (9-2) In his first try in Class 3 after having 4 impressive races in Class 4, picked up de Sousa for the mount due to Moreira being sat down (again) for wreck less driving. Was taken to the rear heading into the first turn and traveled in the two path until they headed into the stretch, moved to the middle of the track then and started gaining on the leaders on a speed favouring track and just missed by a little more than a length at the wire. Proved he could run in this class as long as he stays at the downtown course under the lights.

Race 8 Starlit Knight (28-1) Drew the rail and the light weight in a 14 horse field going 7 furlongs on a track that is not all that kind to him. After 300 metres he became rank after being caught up in traffic, this continued for the next 300 metres with Yeung having to grab his mouth at least three times. In the stretch with 300 he refused to split thru the rail and Alcari who was starting to tire, then Yeung had to grab him again at the 250 mark but by then his race was done and was not asked afterwards. Good that he’s back at his home track.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 3 Frustrated (7-2)

Key Play:
Race 6 Blitzing (5-2)

Longshot:
Race 8 Starlit Knight (28-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 8 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) -
(3)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5,

Post Time Race #1 – 7:15 AM WED EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T…...1-8-12 W/ 3-6-7 …...7:15 AM
(May sub (3, 6, 7) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T…...3-4-5 W/ 2-8-9 …...…7:45 AM
(May sub (2, ,8, 9) into top 3 & may add #7 to bot 3 if live tote dictates)

R#3– 1000M C4 (5F)T….….10-5-7 W/ 9-3-12 ….8:15 AM
(May sub (9, 3, 12) into top 3 & may add #8 to bot. 3 if live tote dictates)

R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T…..3-1-4 W/ 8-5-2 …...8:45 AM
(May sub (8, 5, 2) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#5- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T….5-7-8 W/ 12-3-6….…9:15 AM
(May sub (12, 3, 6) into top 3 & may add #4 to bot. 3 if live tote dictates)

R#6- 1200M C3 (6F)T……...7-12-8 W/ 9-4-5 …..9:45 AM
(May sub (9, 4, 5) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#7– 1650M C3 (8.25F)T ..6-1-12 W/ 4-8-7 ....10:15 AM
(May sub (4, 8, 7) into top 3 & may add #5 to bot. 3 if live tote dictates)

R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)T……...1-4-2 W/ 10-5-6 ….…9:50 AM
(May sub (10, 5, 6) into top 3 & may add #8 to bot. 3 if live tote dictates)
.
.

[Unicorn]

Good luck today guys.

[Nitro]

R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T….1-8-12 W/ 3-6-7 …...7:15 AM
(May sub (3, 6, 7) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

1-12-7-9– Big Dutch Win 101% Margin/ $47.10 Quinella & $701.80 Triple / ALL of that one!

R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T…..3-4-5 W/ 8-9-7 – Sub #7 (good action) for #2 (no action) …..…7:45 AM
(May sub (2, ,8, 9) into top 3 & may add #7 to bot 3 if live tote dictates)

5-7-3-9– Dutch Win 51% Margin/ $311.70 Quinella & $3347.40 Triple / ALL of that one!

R#3– 1000M C4 (5F)T….….10-5-9 W/ 12-8 – Sub #9 (good action) for #7 (no action) & #3 dropped ….8:15 AM
(May sub (9, 3, 12) into top 3 & may add #8 to bot. 3 if live tote dictates)

9-2-4-10– Dutch Win 32% Margin-Passed /

R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T…..3-1-4 W/ 8-5-2 …...8:45 AM
(May sub (8, 5, 2) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

5-12-3-6– Dutch Loss 239% Margin/

R#5- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T….5-7-6 W/ 12-3-8 – Sub #6 (good action) for #8 (no action)….…9:15 AM
(May sub (12, 3, 6) into top 3 & may add #4 to bot. 3 if live tote dictates)

6-3-12-1– Big Dutch Win 103% Margin/ $147.90 Quinella & $3347.40 Triple / ALL of that one!

R#6- 1200M C3 (6F)T……...7-12-9 W/ 4-5 – Sub #9 (good action) & dropped #8 (no action) …..9:45 AM
(May sub (9, 4, 5) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

9-10-12-5– Dutch Win 20% Margin-Passed/

R#7– 1650M C3 (8.25F)T ..6-1-12 W/ 4-8-7 ....10:15 AM
(May sub (4, 8, 7) into top 3 & may add #5 to bot. 3 if live tote dictates)

8-9-7-6– Dutch Loss 144% Margin/

R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)T……...1-4-2 W/ 10-5-6 ….…10:50 AM
(May sub (10, 5, 6) into top 3 & may add #8 to bot. 3 if live tote dictates)

4-12-8-7– Big Dutch Win 156% Margin/

**Dutch Win Betting quota was reached and turned out to be another profitable card.
My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 39% from hitting the 4 of 6 playable races.
There were also some nice size Quinellas in the mix.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. March 17, 2019… 55th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 74 Degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: E 10 to 20mph.

Post time: 1am ET, 10pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190317_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 3 Charizard (7-2) Comes from a barn that has 2 wins out of 147 tries at Sha Tin this year and draws the 13 post with a short run to the turn.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 361 (Winners: 1st & 7th, Second: 3rd & 6th)
Race 1 Gallant Legacy (11-1)

Race 393 (Winners: 2nd & 3rd, Second: 1st & 7th)
Race 7 Stimulation (37-1)

Race 423 (Winners: 6th, 8th, 10th & 12th) Class 3
Race 10 Tornado Twist (3-2)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Regency Darling (24-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 2 Dan Control (5-2)
Race 7 Fortune Booth (17-1)
Race 8 Waikuku (even)
Race 10 Solar Patch (7-2)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 7 Full Of Beauty (3-5)
Race 7 Lean Perfection (28-1)
Race 8 Waikuku (even)
Race 10 King Opie (8-1)
Race 10 Tornado Twist (3-2)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 9 Happy Force (10-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 6 Dynamic Eagle (6-1) He is not the most consistent runner on the backside but he has been improving of late, and unfortunately was very unlucky at the draw getting the 13 post with the VERY short run to the first turn and after a very troubled trip he had in his previous out. At the start he threw his head up as if Ho wanted to take him directly back, by the time they reached the turn he had settled to the rear but went into the turn in the four path, by the time they entered the backstretch he was still parked wide which continued all the way into the stretch. At the wire he was striding out the best of the field and was gaining on the chalk winner who had a much easier trip while breaking from the rail.


Race 9 Invincible Missile (4-5) In his third lifetime start after breaking his maiden in Class 4 with ease in his debut, he was then moved up to Class 3 where he found things a little bit more difficult and getting a poor ride by Leung didn't help. He broke better today and raced mid-pack on the backside, in the turn he became unbalanced when he started to drift out and was blocked by Home Run on his outside. In the stretch he was held up with no exit plan being stuck behind a wall of runners, all the while that was going on the chalk was making his winning move. At the 200 metre mark it looked like a hopeless cause, but after Teetan angled him out to the far outside he started making up ground two strides to one on the winner at the wire and distanced himself from the field in the gallop out.


Race 10 Tornado Twist (3-2) After winning three in a row with ease at Sha Tin, he was back at the track where he didn't wint. He broke a length slow from the gate forcing him to race from the rear on a track that had been favouring speed all night, raced in the two path in the turn and continued his run to the wire but couldn't overcome the start and how the track was playing to get up. Thankfully he’s back at his favourite facility today.


Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 4 Circuit Three (14-1)
Race 7 Super Hoppy (27-1)
Race 8 Dark Dream (3-1)

Key Plays:
Race 5 Chairman Lo (2-1)
Race 10 Tornado Twist (3-2)

Longshots:
Race 2 California Turbo (15-1)
Race 4 Circuit Three (14-1)
Race 7 Super Hoppy (27-1)
Race 8 Harmony Victory (21-1)
Race 9 Winning Endeavour (11-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with all 10 to be run on Turf:
(Classes from top to bottom) –
(1)-GR1 Stake, (2)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SUN EST

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values of the selected entries add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1200M C4 (6F)T….8-2-13 W/ 10-3-1 ……1:00 AM EST
(May sub (10, 3, 1) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#2- 1200M C3 (6F)T….9-3-2 W/ 4-10-5…….1:30 AM EST
(May sub (4, 10, 5) into top 3 & (12) in bot. 3 if live tote dictates)

R#3- 1200M C4 (6F)T.…6-4-1 W/ 12-3-9 …...2:00 AM EST
(May sub (12, 3, 9) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#4- 1600M C4 (8F)T….7-4-10 W/ 3-14-9 …2:30 AM EST
(May sub (3, 14, 9) into top 3 & (2) in bot. 3 if live tote dictates)

R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T…..1-5-6 W/ 9-2-12 .....3:00 AM EST
(May sub (9, 2, 12) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#6- 2000M C3 (10F)T…..7-5-9 W/ 3-8-1 ….3:30 AM EST
(May sub (3-8-1) into top 3 & (2) in bot. 3 if live tote dictates)

R#7- 1200M C2 (6F)T…..4-2-5 W/ 8-10-6 …..4:00 AM EST
(May sub (8-10-6) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#8- 2000M G1 (10F)T…..1-4-2 W/ 5-8-3 …..4:35 AM EST
(May sub (5, 8, 3) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#9- 1400M C3 (7F)T….10-2-4 W/ 3-5-8 …..5:15 AM EST
(May sub (3, 5, 8) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#10- 1400M C2 (7F)T...3-13-4 W/ 10-1-7 ….5:50 AM EST
(May sub (10, 1, 7) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
.
.

[Nitro]

R#1- 1200M C4 (6F)T….8-2-13 W/ 10-3-1 ……1:00 AM EST
(May sub (10, 3, 1) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

2-7-12-13– Dutch Win 23% Profit Margin-Passed /

[Nitro]

R#2- 1200M C3 (6F)T….3-2-4 W/ 9-10-12 – Sub Favorite #4 for #9 & added #12 good late action & dropped #5 – no action …….1:30 AM EST (May sub (4, 10, 5) into top 3 & (12) in bot. 3 if live tote dictates)

4-3-12-6– Big Dutch Win 106% Profit Margin/$50.60 Quinella & $506.20 Triple Bx / ALL of that one!

[Nitro]

R#3- 1200M C4 (6F)T.…6-4-1 W/ 12-3-9 …...2:00 AM EST
(May sub (12, 3, 9) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

1-4-7-12– Dutch Win 35% Profit Margin-Passed / $18.70 Quinella

[Nitro]

R#4- 1600M C4 (8F)T…..7-2-10 W/ 3-14-9- Sub betting Favorite #2 w/#4 dropped - no action …….2:30 AM EST
(May sub (3, 14, 9) into top 3 & (2) in bot. 3 if live tote dictates)

2-14-1-9– Big Dutch Win 128% Profit Margin/ $24.10 Quinella

[Nitro]

R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T…..1-5-6 W/ 9-2-12 .3:00 AM EST (May sub (9, 2, 12) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

6-1-12-4– Big Dutch Win 128% Profit Margin/$23.10 Quinella & $252.60 Triple Bx / ALL of that one!

[Nitro]

UPDATE - R#6- 2000M C3 (10F)T…..7-5-9 W/ 3-2-14 ….3:30 AM EST

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE - R#6- 2000M C3 (10F)T…..7-5-9 W/ 3-2-14 ….3:30 AM EST

2-3-14-4– Dutch Loss 120% Profit Margin/$36.60 Quinella & $450.20 Triple Bx / ALL of that one!