Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
things seem somewhat chalky. pick after pick it reads like fierceness, sierra and touch followed by 2 more that are pretty logical with large ML odds
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Agreed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
too many people like the deep closers
worst case freedom and sierra are 19/20 for 2 calls.
honor marie is going to take action as well and could easily be in the same spot
i'm not say these are bad horses or you shouldn't play them. i will say that they're going to take heavy action and should be compromised in this race.
seems like in the KD you never have the actually closer that runs big in this race. it's almost never the ones you expect.
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The pace will be fast by virtue of field size and at least two that want the lead, two more that run early, and maybe others that uncharacteristically send and hope. But it's not like there's an abundance of do-or-die speeds here to ensure a meltdown. You may be on to something with overbet closers.
Maybe the way to address this is have a slot for "closer," and use them as one unit. So play
in the closer slot, but don't play them to finish together. Even if two of them do make the number, heavy action will depress the payoff. Dropping the
and adding a deeper shot emboldens the move, although later runners
,
,
, and
aren't certified closers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
i expect problems for sierra. i could see him getting pinched, hit and get messed up as he retreats to the rear and they run to the first turn. not to mention being almost 20L back and having to weave around everybody once he decides to run. dicey pick imo
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All that with the inside post. Maybe he goes with the flow, saves ground, and works out a decent position. But seems more likely an inevitable crush of horses squeeze him into trouble. He deserves the attention, but a lot to overcome at a short price.
Getting past the top two makes things more interesting.
To be fair, David Aragona did pick
Forever Young on top. He's a somewhat distant third choice at worst, maybe even fifth choice if Just a Touch and Catching Freedom take money.
Speaking of which, on a cautionary note, Craig Milkowski is all in on the closers,
for his top three. Turns out, he and David landed on the co third choices on David's line on top. They both include
but exclude
.