*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by green80

Greg,



I'm a big fan of the minimum odds setting that most ADW's have. I usually put my bets in with a minimum odds setting at 0 or -1 minutes to post ,depending on the track, and catch those that have low starting odds but go off at a decent price.


Matter of fact when I use Platinum some days I'll bet the all the top power horses and set the odds at around 10/1 or better. While most of the time the post time odds are too low, I have caught quite a few boxcar payoffs using this method. With just a little bit of handicapping you can refine this method quite a bit. Good luck.

You know, Mike...I'm familiar with conditional wagering, but say you suspect a horse will be odds-on--so you make a condition of 2-1 at 0 Min to post. As soon as there is 0 MTP--you have a bet.
Only problem is--there may still be at least 2 or maybe 3 blinks of the board AFTER the 0 MTP mark. You could easily end up with a 1-5 bet--you all know how those late odds go.

Usually I don't need a condition because I can't see it being necessary. I try to avoid possible favs--but as I explained with the Jon Wong horse--it's not that hard to misread the wagering patterns, especially if you aren't on track.


This is the Comp Report from EXOTIC BETS for Parx today-sometimes it can be extremely accurate, depending on the track.
I'll probably play a few horizontals, since there's some good prices showing.

Good luck,
-NCG

[green80]

I agree with you, not much you can do about those last click odds drops. It seems like they are more of a problem at certain tracks. Right now I am playing Oaklawn and the late odds drops are not much of an issue there.

[mmmjjjj]

hey greg so here are a few notes

i will start with the second race as i ran out of time


remember this is only how the board might shape up and what the lines may appear to look like
mostly will focus on ur longer price selections since you stated there were prices today
on your comp report . unless some favourites look obvious

dont cut my throat off if im wrong sometimes 5 percent of the time it happens

race 2-- vested ventrure--7-2 ml --but he has to go chalk here almost 100 percent
there is really nothing anyone could do about it

race 4-- make the rules --- 6-1 ml --- is more like a 4-1 shot here but the fact that the #5 last race was so strong
it might not materialize . regardless he will be in the top three betting along with the 5,7
#6 gets ignored

race 6 zensational zip ---5-2 ml -- since you only listed him -- he has too much opposition from my linears
for his line not too hold here. so if u believe that much go for it

race 7---stormin justin --- 10-1 ml--- now way you see that line and most likely 6-1 or so as he could go second choice
the fact that red razzo is so strong will hold his price up but he realistically is a 12 percent horse
and the inside and big win are not helping ur cause. although the jockey switch may keep him at bay


race 8--- brio man-- 10-1 ml---- i can tell u with 100 percent certainty that this is the biggest simulator drop of the day.
he carries 148 out of 168 simulations in my algorythims. if it wasn't that he is on a extended
cycle i would have 100 percent made him the real chalkkkkkkk here but i have reservations.
regardless there is no way in hell he will be higher than 3-1 here according to what i am seeing

ok hope it helps

mmjj

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by mmmjjjj

hey greg so here are a few notes

i will start with the second race as i ran out of time


remember this is only how the board might shape up and what the lines may appear to look like
mostly will focus on ur longer price selections since you stated there were prices today
on your comp report . unless some favourites look obvious

dont cut my throat off if im wrong sometimes 5 percent of the time it happens

mmjj

What?

You must be the master of all trades if you can be right 95% of the time according to your statement.

Unless your saying something else. Just cutting into Greg’s thread he built up and you have to complain about who he likes for the past few days. Not a bother but pretty annoying when someone will post picks and the saying how you think his picks are not good I guess?

[mmmjjjj]

kidd
i guess u forgot to read this part

"remember this is only how the board might shape up and what the lines may appear to look like"

nobody is dishing on any selections
nobody is telling him his selections are no good
i am only trying to help him with the pitfalls

mmjj

[NorCalGreg]

Sorry...I just spent at least 45 minutes typing up a post---and it somehow just disappeared. Oh well, it's appx 1:30 AM cali time so I not going to retry it, sorry.

I'll try again tomorrow night. I did have @ Tampa-- SPECTACULAR ROAD to WIN in the 8th-with a straight EX to LADY AZTECA underneath

That's what I get for taking Xanax before posting (yes,it's prescribed)

Good Luck all,

-NCG

btw...please post any question,comments or anything you want to say. I get emails all the time--but seriously people would like to help you or answer your question, if they see it on here. There are some really sharp people here.

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by mmmjjjj

kidd
i guess u forgot to read this part

"remember this is only how the board might shape up and what the lines may appear to look like"

nobody is dishing on any selections
nobody is telling him his selections are no good
i am only trying to help him with the pitfalls

mmjj

����*♂️

Sorry I did not see that.
Kinda was having a bad night and didn’t really need to post here for anything. Sorry bro.

[mmmjjjj]

no worries kid

all good

[NorCalGreg]

Here's a quick $10 pick-3 starting in the 4th @ Parx...You won't hit these everyday, but they're quick and easy.

Man, I was off a week and suddenly got a ton of orders. Call me at home for immediate service 1-510-972-0050

Good Luck,

-NCG

[coacht]

That’s great Greg

Good luck today

Gene

[NorCalGreg]

Hey Gene:

How are you? Got anything good today???

Was watching a television program about the assassination of President Lincoln----fascinating.

What's amazing is Mary Surrat (& others) were tried and convicted (and hung) within a week--and she really didn't seem to be guilty of anything

[NorCalGreg]

Thanks for your help, Larry --I knew you was a solid dude

[NorCalGreg]

Okay...I'm right here at this phone# watching KNIVES OUT AND jumanji.anyone need any help at all, please let me know--NCG

1-510 972-0050 -(BTW Knives Out is really entertaining)

[NorCalGreg]

Let me take a shot at a few "price" horses today at Parx: I have not checked scratches

2ND MIDDAY PRAYER 6-1

4TH JACK O LIAM 9/2

5TH PROTA 20-1

7TH BOURBON HONEY 10-1

9TH GRASSHOPPIN 8-1

10TH R JOLLEY DREAMER 15-1


Good Luck Boys (and girls)

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

GGX for tomorrow--I would take a shot at the late DD, first of all.