Quote:
Originally Posted by Matrix1022
Formula please explain where your pick is or exacta. I’m lost with all those numbers So difficult to read Is there a simple solution
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I HOPE THIS HELPS.
OUTPERFORMING THE WIN BET WITH AN EXACTA BET.
JUMPING RIGHT TO THE NUTS AND BOLTS OF THE PLAY.
USING THE TOTEBOARD, I DELVELPOED MANY VIEWS OF THE WPS AND EXCATA RELATIONSHIPS.
I NOW HAVE 13 SUCH RELATIONSHIPS, FORMULAS
THE USA RACES, WITH WPS AND EXACTA POOLS DIFFER FROM THE UK, HK, AND SAF, AND SO DO THE RELATIONSHIPS.
LOOKING AT THE USA RACES:
I SUM THE RESULTS OF ALL 13 FORMULAS TO FORM AN ODDS LINE. CALL THIS PLAY #1
I ALSO USE ONE OF THOSE 13 FORMULAS AS A SECOND, STAND ALONE ODDS LINE. CALL THIS PLAY #2
I THEN COMPARE THOSE ODDS TO THE CURRENT TRACK WIN POOL ODDS LINE, GENERALLY AT 1,2, OR 0 MINUETS TO POST (WHEN USING 0 MINUETS TO POST, THE HORSES HAVE YET TO COMPLETELY LOAD INTO THE GATE).
A HORSE BECOMES A PLAY (EXPECTED TO FINISH 2ND) WHEN THE TRACK ODDS EXCEED THE SCREENS ODDS LINE. THE SIZE OF THE HORSES BET IS THE TRACKS ODDS, BASED AS A PERCENTAGE.
YOUR JOB IS TO PICK THE WINNING HORSE AND MAKE AN EXACTA PLAY FOR YOUR HORSE OVER ALL OF MY SELECTED HORSES AT THE BET SIZES INDICATED.
THE PLAY IS SUCCESSFUL IF SUCH A $1 PLAY RETURNS MORE THAT THE $1 WIN BET.
THE PLAY IS PROFITABLE IF IT OUTPERFORMS THE WIN PLAY BY MORE THAN THE WIN POOL BOOKING PERCENTAGE OF THE RACE. THE BOOKING PERCENTAGE OF THE RACE IS 1/(1-TRACKOUT). AT THE NYRA TRACKS THE WIN POOL TAKEOUT IS 15 %, THE BOOKING % THEN = 1/(1-.15)=1.18
INCLUDED IN MY POSITINGS ON PACEADVANTAGE ARE THE PROGAM NUMBERS, COLUMN 1
THE BET SIZE FOR PLAY #1 , COLUMN 2, AND WHEN SHOWN, THE BET SIZE FOR PLAYS #2, COLUMN 3
THE BET SIZE FOR EACH COLUMN 2 AND 3 ALWAYS 1.
IF YOUR HORSE IS LOCATED IN THE SAME COLUMN AS THE PLACE HORSE, THE $1 RETURN IS CALCULATED BY DEDUCTING THE BET SIZE OF YOUR HORSE FROM THE COLUMNS TOTAL AND RE-NORMALIZE.
FOR INSTANCE IF YOUR HORSE HAS A BET SIZE OF SAY, .15 AND IT COMBINES WITH A PLACE HORSE WHO’S BET SIZE IS SAY .20, THEN FOR THE PURPOSE OF COMPARING THE PLAY’S RETURN TO THE $1 WIN RETURN, THE TOTAL EXCATA BET SIZE IS NORMALIZED TO .20/(1-.15) PRODUCING AN EXACTA BET SIZE OF .235. THIS NEW NUMBER IS USE FOR COMPARING THE EXACTA RETURN TO THE WIN BET RETURN ONLY. IT DOES NOT CHANGE THE .15 BET SIZE.