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Old 07-19-2018, 08:41 PM   #1
letswastemoney
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Schuylerville Stakes discussion (opening day Saratoga)

Only one or two races to analyze for each horse right?

Let's give this 2-year-old stakes race a shot.

Catherinethegreat (5/2) - Ten-length winner at Gulfstream Park, although on a sloppy track. Also, she may have defeated tomato cans over there. While she could win here, it would be no fun to settle for a questionable favorite.

Nonna Madeline (7/2) - Average speed figure at Monmouth is not a concern. Todd Pletcher showed in past seasons that he warms up his 2-year-olds with a soft race at Monmouth, before they move forward at Saratoga. In fact, one example is this filly's sister, Nonna Mela, who won the Adirondack Stakes. The pick.

Congrats Gal (12-1) - For a 12-1 shot, she actually holds a solid TimeformUS Speed Figure of 92. She led all the way at Laurel through a fast pace. Can she do the same here? The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, so the dynamics will work against her at a tougher track. Skeptical.

Fightress (12-1) - She broke her maiden by four over the mud at Churchill. The speed figure was a relatively low one at 81 though. Pass for now.

Lonely Road (15-) - This one owns two starts. She broke her maiden the second time around, winning a Belmont maiden by over four lengths. Speed figure was an ordinary 83. Nothing sticks out on paper here, so pass.

Tapping Pearl (10-1) - Here is a Tapit half to Drill. This filly broke her maiden by a moderate two lengths at Churchill, after setting the pace on a speed-biased track. Speed figure was a lowly 73. Prefer to wait and see.

Serengeti Express (6-1) - Intriguing Amoss filly broke her maiden by over five at Indiana, earning a field-best 96. None of the horses from that race started since then, making it hard to analyze. This horse is wheeling back in 16 days, which means the connections want to strike while the iron is hot. Contender.

Eyeinthesky (6-1) - Hyped filly started as the second choice in the Astoria, and actually ran well when closing for third. She might turn out to be a better elongated sprinter, or even a router. Oddly, Florent Geroux abandons ship to ride Tapping Pearl. That could be a bad sign. But she could come late.

Lady Apple (8-1) - Some kind of sale occurred after the April 12 Keeneland race. Phoenix Thoroughbred bought part of her, and then sent the filly to Asmussen. She rewarded them with a brave inside run in the Astoria, only losing by a neck. Irad is up. Expect another solid run to hit the board.

Blame the Frog (10-1) - Nothing to note here. Three starts and no speed figures above 82, although they progressively got better. Pass for now.


Conclusion


In terms of the win spot, Nonna Madeline and Serengeti Express seem most interesting.

Last edited by letswastemoney; 07-19-2018 at 08:43 PM.
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Old 07-19-2018, 10:09 PM   #2
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Number for me
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Old 07-20-2018, 09:16 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by letswastemoney View Post
Nonna Madeline (7/2) - Average speed figure at Monmouth is not a concern. Todd Pletcher showed in past seasons that he warms up his 2-year-olds with a soft race at Monmouth, before they move forward at Saratoga. In fact, one example is this filly's sister, Nonna Mela, who won the Adirondack Stakes. The pick.
I remember watching this race. I bet against on the X, the 2nd choice in this race figuring the Pletcher airs. Green at the start and the first part of the race, suddenly the lightbulb hits the old horse brain and its lights out.

Horse will improve off that effort and should be either first or second in this spot (second in case one of the other second races fillies freak)

I would take her over and under in exactas.

2/3467

3467/2

Allan
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Old 07-20-2018, 12:23 PM   #4
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Pletcher and The Schuylerville, like money in the bank. Anything can finish 2nd. All the longshots underneath in the exacta.

Pick three:w/w/,

Last edited by Nutz and Boltz; 07-20-2018 at 12:30 PM.
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Old 07-20-2018, 12:27 PM   #5
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I did this race as part of the Key Races Blog free at Amwager
https://www.amwager.com/handicapping/ellis-starr-blog



If you don't want to venture over there here's my top 3:

Congrats Girl won her debut last month about as easily as a horse can win, ridden out by six lengths. It wasn't just the ease in which she won that was impressive, it was the fact she ran the field off their feet by establishing a three length lead shortly after the start. Since then, Congrats Gal put in a very sharp 58.8 five furlong drill to demonstrate she's in fine form. Trainer Lynch doesn't ship from the Maryland base to New York much but is two-for-two with the move recently including a 10/1 winner in June and I think this filly is very capable of repeating her debut while mostly ignored in the wagering given the presence of much more notable trainers and horses in the group.



Fightress won by nearly five lengths in her only start, last month at Churchill Downs, which was impressive because she broke slowly then rushed up right after the break. That kind of expenditure of energy can be costly but not for this gal, who earned an 87 Equibase figure (Congrats Gal earned an 82 figure for her win). That 87 figure is on par with the best in the group – Lady Apple (89), Blame the Fog (87) and Eyeinthesky (87) and like many of the other fillies in this race, improvement is very likely in her 2nd career start.



Nonna Madeline is the other main contender in this race, as she won under wraps in her career debut last month. It is always odd when Pletcher ships out of New York to race at Monmouth as he did here, as it suggests a horse is not among his "A" group, but that was not the case with this filly who is a half-sister to 2016 Adirondack Stakes winner Nonna Mela. Considering Pletcher's very high 31% win rate with last out maiden winners in two-year-old stakes races over the last couple of years, this gal would be no surprise if winning right back.
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Old 07-20-2018, 12:35 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by ubercapper View Post
I did this race as part of the Key Races Blog free at Amwager
https://www.amwager.com/handicapping/ellis-starr-blog



It is always odd when Pletcher ships out of New York to race at Monmouth as he did here, as it suggests a horse is not among his "A" group, but that was not the case with this filly who is a half-sister to 2016 Adirondack Stakes winner Nonna Mela. [/B][/B]
Schuylerville winner in 2016, trained by Pletcher also came to the race of a maiden win at Monmouth
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Old 07-20-2018, 04:56 PM   #7
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Old 07-20-2018, 05:22 PM   #8
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Good call..Hope you boxed.
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Old 07-20-2018, 08:14 PM   #9
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I boxed 1-3-7.



Bit I did play the 1 1W3P.
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