What IF

[v j stauffer]

All thoroughbred racing was discontinued? And replaced by Arabian racing? What's the ONE thing you hate the most about our game? For me, by a landslide, it's when horses break down. In my 40 years on the track I've never seen an Arab pull up badly.

Once the transition was made almost all things would be very similar.

Breed the best to the best and hope for the best.

Horses would stay sounder longer and therefore stay in training for the fans to enjoy.

The owner would still invest big money if they had purses good enough to run at.

The best trainers would still command the biggest barns.

The best jockeys would still win the most races.

There would still be the Arabian versions of Zenyatta, Justify, Winx, et al

The competition would be just as dramatic. A thrilling nose bobbing whacker to the wire would get the blood pumping just the same.

The people would pump money through the windows just as before.

Only difference is the horses would be running much slower.

Being the best of the best can still be exalted whether they finish in 107 flat or 114.

That's it. I think we could replicate everything else.

What IF?

[thaskalos]

I, personally, can't visually distinguish a Secretariat from a $5,000 claimer... nor can I tell if a race finished in 1:14 instead of 1:08. If it would spare me the horror of watching these magnificent animals breaking down...I wouldn't care if I were betting on a field of mules. Assuming, of course, that I could still access the requisite speed and pace figures.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

All thoroughbred racing was discontinued? And replaced by Arabian racing? What's the ONE thing you hate the most about our game? For me, by a landslide, it's when horses break down. In my 40 years on the track I've never seen an Arab pull up badly.

Once the transition was made almost all things would be very similar.

Breed the best to the best and hope for the best.

Horses would stay sounder longer and therefore stay in training for the fans to enjoy.

The owner would still invest big money if they had purses good enough to run at.

The best trainers would still command the biggest barns.

The best jockeys would still win the most races.

There would still be the Arabian versions of Zenyatta, Justify, Winx, et al

The competition would be just as dramatic. A thrilling nose bobbing whacker to the wire would get the blood pumping just the same.

The people would pump money through the windows just as before.

Only difference is the horses would be running much slower.

Being the best of the best can still be exalted whether they finish in 107 flat or 114.

That's it. I think we could replicate everything else.

What IF?

I agree that all the things you are saying is true. The problem would be that eventually, the same forces that cause the current problems with racing, the profit motive above all other considerations, would reemerge. Massive breeding to unsound stock, as long as they were fast long enough in their brief careers to win big purses and later earn even bigger bucks at stud and we would be back to where we started. The modern T-Bred is actually the evolution of the breed from its Arabian ancestor through selective breeding for speed alone. The modern T-Bred is a locomotive running on toothpicks. A freak of nature that would never have evolved or survived had it not been for selective breeding through artificial selection for speed alone by man. I was there to see Ruffian on the day of her last win in the CCA Oaks and the sad day of her fatal breakdown during her match race with Foolish Pleasure and noted how massive and powerful her body was compared to how skinny her lower legs were.

From a practical point of view, such a change would cause billions of dollars of Thoroughbred stock to be instantly worthless and the powers that be would never allow that to occur.

The only practical solution that could work would be that the industry, for it's own long term survival, would be to put strict soundness criteria upon all breeding stock. I believe the German Jockey Club requires that all horses must have raced for something like 2 or 3 years, drug free, to stand at stud. For this reason German-bred horses have a reputation for soundness and staying power. The problem is that the American, as well as other Jockey Clubs, to adopt similar measures for their survival at the expense of the huge amounts of money they are currently making. It would be like a reverse engineering of the modern thoroughbred back to its sounder Arabian ancestor.

Sadly, I fear the the long term survival of the sport and industry will run a distant 2nd to the lure of the big fast buck.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I, personally, can't visually distinguish a Secretariat from a $5,000 claimer... nor can I tell if a race finished in 1:14 instead of 1:08. If it would spare me the horror of watching these magnificent animals breaking down...I wouldn't care if I were betting on a field of mules. Assuming, of course, that I could still access the requisite speed and pace figures.

Some racks actually do have mule racing with pari-mutual betting. These big eared characters are surprisingly fast and lots of fun to watch.

[Dave Schwartz]

All thoroughbred racing was discontinued? And replaced by Arabian racing?

Vic,

IMHO, the game would die so fast that nobody would notice it. Worse, nobody would miss it.

Where we are today is that the game is dying not JUST because of dwindling stock, but it is a big part. Truthfully, the shortage of horses can be traced back to the changes in the 1986 (I think) tax laws when owning a tbred could be depreciated like a truck.

Your theory is based (I believe) on the idea that if we replace TBreds with Arabs people will still bet.

Since the primary problem is (as being discussed in a concurrent thread) the loss of old customers without replacements of new ones, I can only assume that changing the caliber of the livestock would make the death come more quickly.

I'd say that a Romanesque spectacle with lions vs. Republicans would probably have a better chance at drawing young people.

Dave

[Jeff P]

Of the two thoroughbreds are significantly faster than Arabians.

Vic is right though - Arabians are more durable than thoroughbreds.

Like Thask, if the industry did make the switch from thoroughbreds to Arabians, provided players had access to a similar level of data we currently have for thoroughbreds --

I'd be perfectly ok betting Arabians instead of thoroughbreds.

But if that happened --

What's the under (in months) before ringers start showing up in races? One month? (Two?)

By ringer I mean horses with papers that say they're Arabians - but DNA that says they're part thoroughbred.

Given that thoroughbreds are significantly faster than Arabians --

How long would it be before a track announcer somewhere makes an announcement like the following?

Track Announcer:

Ladies and gentlemen may I have your attention please?

The conditions for tonight's eighth race state the race is for Arabians only.

But DNA test results for number three Quark's Little Dancer say she is 28% thoroughbred.

After much deliberation (and after consulting with the trainer) the stewards have decided that number three Quark's Little Dancer will now run for purse money only...

-jp

.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

What's the under (in months) before ringers start showing up in races? One month? (Two?)

By ringer I mean horses with papers that say they're Arabians - but DNA that says they're part thoroughbred.


.

There already is pari-mutual racing for Arabians and the fact that all the horses have to be registered pure bred Arabs precludes the danger of part T-Bred ringers.

[Buckeye]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Vic,

IMHO, the game would die so fast that nobody would notice it. Worse, nobody would miss it.

Where we are today is that the game is dying not JUST because of dwindling stock, but it is a big part. Truthfully, the shortage of horses can be traced back to the changes in the 1986 (I think) tax laws when owning a tbred could be depreciated like a truck.

Your theory is based (I believe) on the idea that if we replace TBreds with Arabs people will still bet.

Since the primary problem is (as being discussed in a concurrent thread) the loss of old customers without replacements of new ones, I can only assume that changing the caliber of the livestock would make the death come more quickly.

I'd say that a Romanesque spectacle with lions vs. Republicans would probably have a better chance at drawing young people.

Dave

Are we talking horses or Politics here?

I'm confused.

[Buckeye]

Here's an idea, explain to the younger generation that horses are victims and don't really want to run.

Better yet, replace them.

Not the horses.

[Augenj]

Thanks for thinking outside the box, Vic. We need more of this.

However, after a few decades of breeding the fastest to the fastest, wouldn't Arabians evolve into the fragile animals that thoroughbreds have become? Not that I'll be around.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Augenj

Thanks for thinking outside the box, Vic. We need more of this.

However, after a few decades of breeding the fastest to the fastest, wouldn't Arabians evolve into the fragile animals that thoroughbreds have become? Not that I'll be around.

As I said in my post, yes they would. I refer you back to my reply where that is what I said would happen.

They wouldn't if not for human intervention and selective breeding. Speed is not the only attribute for equine survival. Soundness is also very important. As I pointed out in my post, if left to natural election horses would have never evolved to be so fragile as the modern T-bred. People have developed the breed through selective breeding and artificial selection in breeding only for speed. The only strain of horses in existence now that is purely the result of natural selection is a sturdy pony-sized horse living in Asia similar to the zebra in size and structure.

[theiman]

How many Arabians are racing in the USA?

As far as I know there are no full card Arabian races carded at any track. Delaware has had a few in the past and Los Al used to have them, plus the CA Fairs. I think the last race on either Big Cap day or SA Derby Day at SA has a stakes race.

No supply, no racing fans or betting.

Here is the race schedule for 2018 for Arabian racing in the USA

https://34z5as1d9gu01m1geu13gzkc-wpe...etcalendar.pdf

[ReplayRandall]

When Greyhound racing is all but extinct, what chance would all Arabian racing have?.....The appetite for any kind of racing, even motor sports, is in steady decline.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

All thoroughbred racing was discontinued? And replaced by Arabian racing? What's the ONE thing you hate the most about our game? For me, by a landslide, it's when horses break down. In my 40 years on the track I've never seen an Arab pull up badly.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...3&cy=USA&rn=11

http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...15&cy=USA&rn=2

http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...14&cy=USA&rn=3

http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...4&cy=USA&rn=10

http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...12&cy=USA&rn=9

http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...9&cy=USA&rn=11

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...3&cy=USA&rn=11

http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...15&cy=USA&rn=2

http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...14&cy=USA&rn=3

http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...4&cy=USA&rn=10

http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...12&cy=USA&rn=9

http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...9&cy=USA&rn=11

While these are examples of Arabians sustaining racing injury, I don't know if that means that the incidence of injury is just as high in Arabs or these are just exceptions. I don't think v.j. was saying that Arabians are completely immune to injury. Only that he had never seen such an incident implying that this is likely less common in Arabian racing. I think v.j. can confirm this or not.

Plus I believe there was interbreeding of more fragile T-breds at one point in the racing Arabian population.

In addition, racing Arabians are also being bred for speed alone making them also susceptible to fragility.