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08-05-2019, 01:03 PM
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#991
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,835
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
I'm monitoring this thread for the timely SELL alert
I hate giving back more than 20% of my account value , 19 I can live with
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Sell everything now and never get back in again.
Problems solved.
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08-05-2019, 01:14 PM
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#992
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by donmat
Instead of relying on a single SELL signal I've been using Adaptive Asset Allocation. Rank the top 1 or 2 asset classes based on momentum each month and invest in them. Usually beats the S+P 500 but this year is under performing.
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The model I use has three monetary factors and one momentum factor plus I use a few more. The SP has fallen 4% from its peak which is negative momentum and is a sell signal. However, in this case it is not enough of a signal that indicates going 100% into cash. I have cash on the side and have been waiting for a pullback so I can buy. This might be a good time to buy. I will wait and see how it shakes out. The economy looks good overall. Interest rates are low. A lot of money will be flowing into the market. Buffett is sitting on 122 billion in cash. He will put this to use at some point.
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08-05-2019, 01:20 PM
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#993
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
Buffett is sitting on 122 billion in cash. He will put this to use at some point.
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He's waiting for a much bigger drop than you're anticipating, that's for sure...
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08-05-2019, 01:22 PM
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#994
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
He's waiting for a much bigger drop than you're anticipating, that's for sure...
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Maybe. I assume he would buy a good value regardless of the level of the sp
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08-05-2019, 01:28 PM
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#995
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Sell everything now and never get back in again.
Problems solved.
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And rob us of his great wit?
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08-05-2019, 02:36 PM
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#996
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Dow -850.....Just a drop in the bucket. The real Storm hasn't even arrived yet.
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08-05-2019, 02:44 PM
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#997
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,835
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Ben up...ben down....who cares.
The leftists only post when it drops...when it goes back up, they never mention it...has happened a couple of times during Trump...it's hilarious to watch.
If the market goes back up from here at some point, they'll never say a word...they'll only post on big down days, as if it means something.
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08-05-2019, 03:01 PM
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#998
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Dow -850.....Just a drop in the bucket. The real Storm hasn't even arrived yet.
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This is good. The market hit all time highs recently. A pull back should make for some buying opportunities.
My gold/silver mining stocks are up 5% today.
Ray Dalio gave good advice about building what he calls a four season portfolio. If one part is down , chances are another will be up. It is a good way to build long term but you won't get rich as quickly as buying 10 banger high tech stock.
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08-05-2019, 03:19 PM
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#999
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Dramatic change in rate expectations now vs early last week. The market is now pricing in a 68% chance of rates (fed funds) being 100 bps lower by the end of this year. Gold seems to agree and expects even more.
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08-05-2019, 03:29 PM
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#1000
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
Dramatic change in rate expectations now vs early last week. The market is now pricing in a 68% chance of rates (fed funds) being 100 bps lower by the end of this year. Gold seems to agree and expects even more.
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I read or heard the bond or futures market was pricing in a 90% likelihood of lower rates. I forget how many basis points. But the point is rates are probably going lower. Bad for savers. Good for home buyers.
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08-05-2019, 03:31 PM
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#1001
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
I read or heard the bond or futures market was pricing in a 90% likelihood of lower rates. I forget how many basis points. But the point is rates are probably going lower. Bad for savers. Good for home buyers.
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That's for the next meeting (Sept). For Sept, there's a 42% chance of a 50 bps cut and a 58% chance of 25 bps (so 100% chance of a cut). My prior post was for the cumulative change by year-end.
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08-05-2019, 04:06 PM
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#1002
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
That's for the next meeting (Sept). For Sept, there's a 42% chance of a 50 bps cut and a 58% chance of 25 bps (so 100% chance of a cut). My prior post was for the cumulative change by year-end.
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A 50 point cut would send a very interesting signal. Right now rates are around 5.25%. Historically, that is not all that low. Back in the early 60s my grandfather shopped around for a loan. He turned one down at 4.50% for one at 4.25%.
Martin Zweig used 8% as the dividing line between high and low rates. So there is still a lot of room for cuts.
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08-05-2019, 04:15 PM
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#1003
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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5.25 % for what ?
30 yr mortgage is 4%
Zweigs ancient benchmarks are like trying to handicap with my old Kelco Calculator
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08-05-2019, 04:21 PM
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#1004
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
That's for the next meeting (Sept). For Sept, there's a 42% chance of a 50 bps cut and a 58% chance of 25 bps (so 100% chance of a cut). My prior post was for the cumulative change by year-end.
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There is an old saying that low interest rates have long tails. So I expect them to stay low for the next couple of years.
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08-05-2019, 04:24 PM
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#1005
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
5.25 % for what ?
30 yr mortgage is 4%
Zweigs ancient benchmarks are like trying to handicap with my old Kelco Calculator
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Prime rate is 5.25
Bill Ziemba and I co-wrote this paper on using Zweig today:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full...2.2015.1165917
It has served me well.
Last edited by highnote; 08-05-2019 at 04:35 PM.
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