You can pick apart the favorites and make cases for others to really even this field. Pace looks fair, with little standing out early or late. If anything, there's a pileup of midpack runners. Hard to see winning wire-to-wire or dropping out of the clouds. Best chances would seem to come from the front of mid pack with solid late run or stalking the pace outright.
Hard to take any short price on that. The challenge is not to bloat verticals trying to catch a number. Let's see if we can find a worthy key, taking them in ML order.
Tapit Trice is ordained as the horse to beat, but he doesn't have to win. Unless Saez can upgrade his position early, he'll have to navigate 10 horses to prevail—from the rail. His figs don't stand out. He is winning and improving for top connections with upside to spare, but favored each time, way odds-on last time with a late-favoring track. Hasn't beat much, but probably hasn't shown his best. How short a price can you take on that?
Verifying really pops on TFUS metrics. Looks to be stalking close early, packing a standout late pace rating. Best speed fig by a few points (earned with a tough trip in the slop). Raced a couple G1s—more class than most here, even in defeat. Stellar connections. Caught slop for 40% of his record, muddying his capability. Easy to like with little in his way—that's why he's second choice. He's only won at a mile or less and his pedigree points to sprints. Is he better shorter?
Raise Cain looks to be clear of half the pack early and he can run late. Best speed fig in the Gotham matches the favorite, but he rallied from 9th to win on that muddy track favoring closers. Broke his maiden here in a race that makes him competitive, stole place in the Gun Runner at 23-1, but just seems to be holding his own rather than moving forward. Hasn't won over more than a mile. Rosario aboard this Colebrook trainee, with the home team on another entrant. Worth consideration as a midpack choice near 10-1, but not third choice for half that.
Blazing Sevens shows up with Irad Ortiz aboard and three G1s under its belt (two in the slop). Earned the field's second-best speed fig, twice, once in a tough BC Juvie. Flopped in the FoY after that last time out. Certainly fits here; really comes down to how forgiving you want to be about that last race. I can get behind this one at 6-1 fourth choice—but seems more likely for the 9-2 third choice slot than
.
Sun Thunder has faced proper competition at Fair Grounds, and takes another swing just two weeks after its run in the La. Derby. There was no pace for this late runner in that race, which substantiates the unique move. You have to wonder whether there's enough in the tank for this event. Well beaten in the Risen Star, arguably one of the field's classier performances. Not super keen on another closer here, but maybe Geroux places him more aggressively. I'm interested at 10-1 fifth choice.
Classic Car Wash unambiguously second best to today's favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby, closing over a surface that favored the late run. That performance is still enough to justify him in the mix, while also inviting dismissal. He gained late in the Sam F. Davis after trouble in the gate to log a solid performance his fourth time out. The Casse/Castellano combo at Keenland doesn't inspire confidence. Sixth choice 12-1 seems a slot too high, but worth a look as a longer shot.
Hayes Strike dismissible but for his standout win in the Private Terms. That bests half the field's accomplishments, albeit lugging in his ninth start. Didn't do much in the Gun Runner after hitting the board in a couple G2s as a 2yo. He had troubled starts in the Ky. JC and Street Sense, so maybe that muddies his form. Can Graham prevail with a horse that pulled it all together last time at Laurel Park? I need more than 15-1 seventh choice to bet on that.
Scoobie Quando is a more intriguing 15-1 than the rival to his inside. This is the Colebrook runner with his home jock. Pedigree hints more synth and turf, but also long distance, and trainer records suggests favorable surface switch from synth. This one has earned respectable seconds in the last two of its three races, improving with the biggest upside in the field, but trails much of the field on speed figs. The most compelling shot so far, definitely usable at 15-1.
Mendelssohns March arrives here for only its third race—and Lasix removed. Not sure how reliable the pace figs are from a turf and slop race, but they suggest a good trip here. Hernandez has ridden him before. Without divining the pedigree, seems like an even wilder card than
, but potentially worth a shot at a big price.
Clear the Air arrives from Turfway via a muddy trip through the Gotham. Hard to see what makes him belong here, but the low key trainer and odd journey are intriguing. Most compelling is a tracking style that should keep this one out of trouble in front of the pack. He caught the eye of both Beer and Aragona. Usable at 30-1.
Major Blue is the lone frontrunner likely to set today's pace. But he hasn't run very fast to beat much, nor has he really progressed. I like a horse clear of this midpack mob, but they're all coming after him, and I can't see Cabrera taking this Lukas trainee wire to wire over this Keenland field.
Really tough to pick this field apart. I want to fade runners in the back of the pack, which probably includes the favorite
, the notable wheelback
, and the
that was nearly dismissable anyway. Don't want the
. That leaves
and maybe
near the front of midpack with late run, just behind the
and
. The
and
are worthwhile proper trackers, and I don't want
.
I'll focus on
if I can get a decent price.
The
is a bolder shot I'll emphasize.
Price will probably render
to defensive inclusion
The
and
are longshots of roughly equal merit
I'm against
at a short price, but usable if he drifts down the board a few places
The
could sneak in at a big price.
We'll see how much fortitude I have against the
. Main knock is that he's the favorite.
BLUE GRASS STAKES – SAT 4/8 -
