Del Mar does not know how to time a 5 furlong turf race

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by cj

Trakus still sucks at timing races and has since inception. It should never have been made the official timer anywhere. It cost that one Baffert horse that won the Pacific Classic a track record that he clearly earned. How a track like Del Mar still uses it is beyond me.

EDIT:

I was wrong about Game on Dude, it was actually the beam timing system that erred in the 2013 Pacific Classic and unfortunately may have helped lead to Trakus being adopted as official. Trakus actually got that race pretty close.

https://timeformusblog.com/2013/08/2...thless-timing/

I have a question...
First this...Is it not true that the Trakus transmitter is sewn or otherwise attached to the saddle cloth?
If so, the time recorded by Trakus is not the actual time the initial part of the horse actually crosses the marker of the split time or the finish. Correct?
And, it would seem likely that all Trakus transmitters are not equal.
Assuming these are battery powered, suppose one or more TX's are ready for battery replacement? Or are they checked periodically?

[cj]

Originally Posted by thespaah

I have a question...
First this...Is it not true that the Trakus transmitter is sewn or otherwise attached to the saddle cloth?
If so, the time recorded by Trakus is not the actual time the initial part of the horse actually crosses the marker of the split time or the finish. Correct?
And, it would seem likely that all Trakus transmitters are not equal.
Assuming these are battery powered, suppose one or more TX's are ready for battery replacement? Or are they checked periodically?

They adjust for the distance from the transmitter to the nose. How accurate that is, who knows, because it isn't all that accurate as it is.

I'm sure they have transmitter problems at times but those seem to be the least of their worries with all the other issues I see.

[dilanesp]

By the way, it continued to the very end. The final 5 furlong turf race of the meet, on Monday, was hand timed.

[classhandicapper]

Once they finally get the 5F turf races at Del Mar right maybe the maintenance crews around the country will figure out how to keep the moisture content and depth of their dirt surfaces consistent from race to race. Assuming we have accurate times, it would also be nice to not have to guess how much the speed of the track changed from race to race because they added extra moisture or allowed the sun and wind to dry it out (including only certain sections). That goes double when half the races are for lightly raced or inconsistent maidens and other cheap horses that make guessing even tougher.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster

I think it's great that you and others that make speed figures make money on it and find usefulness in it, honestly. Horse racing needs more people that do. From my perspective they're not really useful unless you watch race replays and study trips to determine how that speed figure came about. To each his own

I pretty much agree. There's little to no value in figures anymore.

The value is in betting against figure oriented prevailing wisdom about a horse. But there's also no value in betting horses that are too slow to win. That's the dilemma. So what you really want to do is find figures that are "wrong" and go in another direction. They all make mistakes and some races are way more likely to contain an error than others. If you know the timing of these 5F turf races are often wildly off, that could mean they are fertile ground for finding horses to bet using another method.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I pretty much agree. There's little to no value in figures anymore.

The value is in betting against figure oriented prevailing wisdom about a horse. But there's also no value in betting horses that are too slow to win. That's the dilemma. So what you really want to do is find figures that are "wrong" and go in another direction. They all make mistakes and some races are way more likely to contain an error than others. If you know the timing of these 5F turf races are often wildly off, that could mean they are fertile ground for finding horses to bet using another method.

I do not suggest people bet on slow horses, without figures I dont see how that is avoidable.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Once they finally get the 5F turf races at Del Mar right maybe the maintenance crews around the country will figure out how to keep the moisture content and depth of their dirt surfaces consistent from race to race. Assuming we have accurate times, it would also be nice to not have to guess how much the speed of the track changed from race to race because they added extra moisture or allowed the sun and wind to dry it out (including only certain sections). That goes double when half the races are for lightly raced or inconsistent maidens and other cheap horses that make guessing even tougher.

Churchill is actually a huge offender here on Derby day. They seem to screw with the track every year in the 90 minute lead time before the Derby.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I do not suggest people bet on slow horses, without figures I dont see how that is avoidable.

It's OK to bet on a slow horse. Just make sure the other horses in the race are even slower!

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I do not suggest people bet on slow horses, without figures I dont see how that is avoidable.

I don't want to veer too far off tangent, but if you know the pecking order at your track and look at quality of the horses going into a race, how the race developed, and then how they run next time out, you'll have a pretty good framework for evaluating horses without ever looking at any times.

Most of the time, your opinion will be very much in sync with what the figures say anyway, but sometimes you'll come to a different conclusion. The idea would be to find situations where the figures are wrong (timing or subjective errors by figure maker) or do not reflect the quality of the horses (race development impacted time).

I guess my point is that we are all smart experienced handicappers.

If we are all using the same figures as the core of handicapping, it's going to be tough for us all to win. We can't all outsmart each other.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Churchill is actually a huge offender here on Derby day. They seem to screw with the track every year in the 90 minute lead time before the Derby.

It's tough because not only are they screwing around with the speed of the track, they are also screwing around with biases.

At a bare minimum we shouldn't be discussing timing the races correctly!

[Tom]

There's little to no value in figures anymore.

The value is in knowing how to user them.

But what other factor is a good as speed figure, every race, every day?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

The value is in knowing how to user them.

But what other factor is a good as speed figure, every race, every day?

There are literally hundreds of people on this forum alone that are very bright experienced handicappers. These days the odds are being set by people like us and whales that are putting figures into advanced statistical models. We can't all outsmart each other by using figures better than the other smart players.

For most of us it's kind of like being the 11th best poker player in the world.

You are in great shape unless you sit down at the table with 1-10.

Maybe you are top 5, but we can't all be.

You don't want to bet slow horses, but imo the value has to come from somewhere else.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Tom

The value is in knowing how to user them.

But what other factor is a good as speed figure, every race, every day?

If this "pecking order" that Classhandicapper is advocating was a potent handicapping factor, would the "figures" have ever been created in the first place? I am with you, Tom...there is value in the figures if you know how to use them. I am a "figure player"...but I am quite certain that my "figure play" is different than anybody else's. The "originality" isn't in our tools...it's in our SELVES.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I don't want to veer too far off tangent, but if you know the pecking order at your track and look at quality of the horses going into a race, how the race developed, and then how they run next time out, you'll have a pretty good framework for evaluating horses without ever looking at any times.

Most of the time, your opinion will be very much in sync with what the figures say anyway, but sometimes you'll come to a different conclusion. The idea would be to find situations where the figures are wrong (timing or subjective errors by figure maker) or do not reflect the quality of the horses (race development impacted time).

I guess my point is that we are all smart experienced handicappers.

If we are all using the same figures as the core of handicapping, it's going to be tough for us all to win. We can't all outsmart each other.

I can't believe this until I see a demonstration. Over 500 races are set to be run in the next couple days; can you find one race, and handicap it in advance by "pecking order"...while ignoring the speed and pace figures? I'm sure that I won't be the only one here who would appreciate such an effort.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

There are literally hundreds of people on this forum alone that are very bright experienced handicappers. These days the odds are being set by people like us and whales that are putting figures into advanced statistical models. We can't all outsmart each other by using figures better than the other smart players.

For most of us it's kind of like being the 11th best poker player in the world.

You are in great shape unless you sit down at the table with 1-10.

Maybe you are top 5, but we can't all be.

You don't want to bet slow horses, but imo the value has to come from somewhere else.

Why do you think some of us are contrarian handicappers?....It's where the profits are. So let the egotisical mainstream, figure, and data crunching players continue to pound the pools into -ROI permanent status, and let the creative pathfinders harvest the edge that produces +ROI.....It's just that simple....except for the hard work finding those paths...