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08-22-2019, 11:39 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster
Does it really matter? It happens at every track to some degree
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Yeah, it does. 2019 and horse racing still can't time a race, anywhere, correctly.
If football, basket ball, hockey, ect., was doing this, how many times would have people complained about it? Handicappers pay good money for products associated with these times, and deserve to have this information correct. Just as with the recent photo finish picture at Saratoga, racing needs to invest a little money towards this issue and solve it, instead of burying their collective heads in the sand. Without people like CJ, doing the best they can to help them, what you see in the past performances would be almost a fairy tale.
Last edited by jay68802; 08-22-2019 at 11:40 AM.
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08-22-2019, 11:41 AM
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#17
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,472
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
They are paying for the chicklets, the only thing trakus does reasonably well.
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Not always.
I got these last weekend!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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08-22-2019, 12:22 PM
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#18
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster
Does it really matter? It happens at every track to some degree
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If people can't rely on the data, it is going to hold back any potential growth. The timing issues have to turn off most younger people looking to get interested the game that have a stats background or are interested in analytics. Of course there is lots of data points that matter, but when analyzing performance how fast a race is run (internally and at the finish) is at least as important as any other metric.
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08-22-2019, 02:17 PM
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#19
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,248
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Trakus still sucks at timing races and has since inception. It should never have been made the official timer anywhere. It cost that one Baffert horse that won the Pacific Classic a track record that he clearly earned. How a track like Del Mar still uses it is beyond me.
https://timeformusblog.com/2013/08/2...thless-timing/
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That was pretty much the consensus at Woodbine
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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08-22-2019, 02:26 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
If people can't rely on the data, it is going to hold back any potential growth. The timing issues have to turn off most younger people looking to get interested the game that have a stats background or are interested in analytics. Of course there is lots of data points that matter, but when analyzing performance how fast a race is run (internally and at the finish) is at least as important as any other metric.
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Also, timing is important for historical reasons. Horse races have been timed since before the days of Man O' War (it had some meaning when Man O' War's track record for 1 5/8 miles at Belmont was broken after 98 yeras). The sport, like track and field and swimming, has always considered the times of races important, even among fans who really didn't care about speed figures.
That doesn't require that the times be accurate to the 1/100th of a second the way cj's speed figures sometimes require, but it does require reasonably accurate timing. It means something when a horse breaks 2 minutes for 1 1/4 miles or 1:34 for a mile, for instance, and if the timing's 2/5th of a second off or something similar you won't know that.
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08-22-2019, 02:29 PM
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#21
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
That was pretty much the consensus at Woodbine
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The new GPS in place is better, but I'm not ready to think it is good enough to be official at this point. All times should have the ~ designation.
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08-22-2019, 03:14 PM
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#22
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,248
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Until it reproduces, consistently, the timing of the old beam system, I am sure most places will not use it that way. Positionally, it is fine...TIMING not as yet
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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08-22-2019, 03:42 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 518
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
If people can't rely on the data, it is going to hold back any potential growth. The timing issues have to turn off most younger people looking to get interested the game that have a stats background or are interested in analytics. Of course there is lots of data points that matter, but when analyzing performance how fast a race is run (internally and at the finish) is at least as important as any other metric.
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Bettors that win realize that it's a qualitative game, not quantitave. A fraction of a second here or there is irrelevant, especially in a turf sprint
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08-22-2019, 03:44 PM
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#24
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster
Bettors that win realize that it's a qualitative game, not quantitave. A fraction of a second here or there is irrelevant, especially in a turf sprint
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I suspect the winningest players in the game are "quants," using AI/advanced computer programming and tote feeds.
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08-22-2019, 03:45 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster
Bettors that win realize that it's a qualitative game, not quantitave. A fraction of a second here or there is irrelevant, especially in a turf sprint
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It may be that in 2019, the most profitable handicapping factors involve qualitative metrics. But that's largely due to the success of speed figures, not their failure. Because good speed figures are so widely available and everyone has them, they no longer offer nearly as much betting value as they once did. But that doesn't mean they aren't important. They provide crucial information for separating contenders from pretenders in handicapping races.
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08-22-2019, 04:15 PM
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#26
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster
Bettors that win realize that it's a qualitative game, not quantitave. A fraction of a second here or there is irrelevant, especially in a turf sprint
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It is actually more important at shorter distances. I'll never understand those that don't want accurate data. You don't have to use it.
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08-22-2019, 04:16 PM
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#27
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
I suspect the winningest players in the game are "quants," using AI/advanced computer programming and tote feeds.
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No doubt there is a lot of that in the pools.
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08-22-2019, 04:20 PM
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#28
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
It is actually more important at shorter distances. I'll never understand those that don't want accurate data. You don't have to use it.
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It's why clocker services still exist....You get what you pay for.....Using them correctly is a different story.
Last edited by ReplayRandall; 08-22-2019 at 04:21 PM.
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08-22-2019, 04:34 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 518
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
It may be that in 2019, the most profitable handicapping factors involve qualitative metrics. But that's largely due to the success of speed figures, not their failure. Because good speed figures are so widely available and everyone has them, they no longer offer nearly as much betting value as they once did. But that doesn't mean they aren't important. They provide crucial information for separating contenders from pretenders in handicapping races.
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Speed figures don't (and never really have) provided crucial information. I guess an argument can be made that misstiming races impacts the track variant but with the clownshow of mixed-class races that tracks run now, the variant is largely useless unless you're playing something like MNR or CT that has a rigid class system
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08-22-2019, 04:49 PM
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#30
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Turf_Monster
Speed figures don't (and never really have) provided crucial information. I guess an argument can be made that misstiming races impacts the track variant but with the clownshow of mixed-class races that tracks run now, the variant is largely useless unless you're playing something like MNR or CT that has a rigid class system
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Obviously as someone that makes speed figures I'm not buying the bolded part. It is a race, time matters, and speed figures (along with pace figures) have always been a big part of how I play the races and I've been doing quite well for a long time after an admittedly rough first decade or so. They help me assess form cycles as horses are improving or declining, trainers that are good at "moving horses up", horses that are overrated or underrated based on archaic class designations, etc.
They help identify horses that had a tough wide trip as opposed to a wide trip that didn't hurt or is even beneficial. They can help identify track biases. I see terrible trips every day, but that doesn't mean the horse that had a bad trip is any good or will win next out. The horse might just be slow. Speed figs help with that. I could go on and on.
One man's trash is another man's treasure. The funny thing is you don't see people that use speed figures trash trip handicapping, or trainer capping, or class handicapping, or whatever. But those that don't use speed figures sure like to tell others how useless they are.
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