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Old 02-16-2019, 11:21 PM   #511
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Cool HONG KONG - SHA TIN SUN- 2/17/19

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!

I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with all 10 to be run on Turf :
(Classes from top to bottom) –
(3)-Class-GR1 , (1)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4,


Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SUN EST

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay mo re attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!


R#1- 2000M C4 (10F)T….7-8-6 W/ 3-5-1 ……12:00 AM EST

R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T…..2-13-10 W/ 5-12-11...12:30 AM EST
(May sub #5, or #12 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#3- 1400M C4 (7F)T.….10-1-3 W/ 2-6-11 …...1:00 AM EST
(May sub #2, or #11 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#4- 1200M C3 (6F)T…..6-11-13 W/ 10-2-5 …..1:30 AM EST
(May sub #2, #5, or #10 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#5- 1400M C2 (7F)T…..3-1-4 W/ 11-5-8 …...2:00 AM EST

R#6- 1400M Gr1 (7F)T…...1-2-5 W/ 6-10-9 …...2:30 AM EST

R#7- 2000M Gr1 (10F)T….1-2-8 W/ 6-4-11 …...3:05 AM EST
(May sub #4, #6, or #11 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#8- 1400M C3 (7F)T….…4-6-14 W/ 12-10-5 ….3:40 AM EST
(May sub #5, #10, or #12 into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#9- 1800M Gr1 (9F)T..…1-2-12 W/ 10-5-7 …...4:15 AM EST

R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T....2-1-10 W/3-12-6 …....4:50 AM EST
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Old 02-17-2019, 12:10 AM   #512
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Quote:
R#1- 2000M C4 (10F)T….7-8-6 W/ 3-5-1 ……12:00 AM EST
7-10-3-6– BIG Dutch Win 133% Profit Margin / Some late action on the Placer #10
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Old 02-17-2019, 12:17 AM   #513
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no need to reply right away.
based on the data, your dutch play covered 56.6% of the win pool (adjusted for, a 15% take out)
that amounts to a $1 payout of $1.74
Your $1 return was only $1.43
so in this case just to break event here, the public 's final odds must be wrong by about 121%

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File Type: png hk 02-13-2019 race 1 bet analysis.PNG (89.0 KB, 8 views)
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Old 02-17-2019, 12:37 AM   #514
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This was the actual Dutch Calculation for Race #1 – At Post Time Odds.
My actual Dutch Calculation at about 5 minutes to post provided a 135% Profit margin.
My only concern is the actual profit in $$$!
Code:

 	LOW	MID	HI	TOT	TOT	PRF %
 	3.9	6.4	10.0	BET	PRF	 
 	$10	$15	$22	 	 	 
 	$290	$190	$130	$610	$810	133%
 	$142	$141	$143	 	 	 

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Old 02-17-2019, 12:46 AM   #515
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R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T…..2-13-10 W/ 5-12-11...12:30 AM EST
(May sub #5, or #12 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
11-8-2-1–Dutch Loss 142% Profit Margin / Some good late action on the Winner, but too late to make a change!
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Old 02-17-2019, 12:51 AM   #516
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UPDATE- R#3- 1400M C4 (7F)T.….10-1-3 W/ 13-6-11 …...1:00 AM EST
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Old 02-17-2019, 01:11 AM   #517
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UPDATE- R#3- 1400M C4 (7F)T.….10-1-3 W/ 13-6-11 …...1:00 AM EST
1-6-3-11 – Dutch Win 70% Profit Margin/ $60.90 Quinella & $339.00 Triple (Quartet - $3,055.80) / ALL of that one!
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Old 02-17-2019, 01:42 AM   #518
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R#4- 1200M C3 (6F)T…..6-11-5 W/ 10-2-13 - #5 the betting favorite sub for #13 …..1:30 AM EST
(May sub #2, #5, or #10 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
5-6-14-10– Dutch Win 1% Profit Margin-Passed / $10.40 Quinella
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Old 02-17-2019, 02:20 AM   #519
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R#5- 1400M C2 (7F)T…..3-1-4 W/ 11-5-8 …...2:00 AM EST
3-1-2-8– Dutch Win 8% Profit Margin-Passed / $6.50 Quinella
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Old 02-17-2019, 02:45 AM   #520
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R#6- 1400M Gr1 (7F)T…...1-2-5 W/ 6-10-9 …...2:30 AM EST
1-2-5-10 – Dutch Win -7% Profit Margin-Passed /$4.30 Quinella & $12.40 Triple (Quartet - $39.40) / ALL of that one!
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Old 02-17-2019, 02:53 AM   #521
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UPDATE-R#7- 2000M Gr1 (10F)T….1-2-6 W/ 4-8-11 …...3:05 AM EST
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Old 02-17-2019, 03:18 AM   #522
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UPDATE-R#7- 2000M Gr1 (10F)T….1-2-6 W/ 4-8-11 …...3:05 AM EST
1-5-11-10– Dutch Win 77% Profit Margin / No late action on the LS Placer #5
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Old 02-17-2019, 03:26 AM   #523
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UPDATE- R#8- 1400M C3 (7F)T….…14-5-1 W/ 4-10-7 ….3:40 AM EST
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Old 02-17-2019, 03:56 AM   #524
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UPDATE- R#8- 1400M C3 (7F)T….…14-5-1 W/ 4-10-7 ….3:40 AM EST
14-5-11-1– Dutch Win 31% Profit Margin-Passed / $10.80 Quinella

** Dutch Win Quota Reached – hitting 3 of 4 playable races which produced an O.A. Profit Margin of 47% (as well as hitting 4 of 4 non-playable with profit margins below 50%)
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Old 02-17-2019, 04:04 AM   #525
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UPDATE- R#9- 1800M Gr1 (9F)T..…1-2-10 W/ 12-3-7 …...4:15 AM EST
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