2018-2019 HONG KONG

[formula_2002]

Nitro
"BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.
"
without examination, given the above criteria, I would suspect that a flat $1 bet on the three selected horses could possibly yield a higher $1 return than the dutch play.
Can you review compare the two returns for me.

Thank You and continued success.

[ROK]

Betting his top 3 picks results in a loss.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by ROK

Betting his top 3 picks results in a loss.

is that based on his 50% min margin. that's the key

[ROK]

No it is not.

But that is not the key. The key is whether he has an edge or not.

I have these percentages after 172 races
Top pick -25%
2nd pick -31%
3rd pick -7%

It is doubtful that numbers like these hold an edge. BUT I will not say that it is impossible! I would say he *might* have an edge in the other positions but I don't know.

And the only reason I have tracked his picks is because no man can call ROK a jealous loser for 3 consecutive years in a row! Two years maybe -- but never 3! :-))))))

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by ROK

No it is not.

But that is not the key. The key is whether he has an edge or not.

I have these percentages after 172 races
Top pick -25%
2nd pick -31%
3rd pick -7%

It is doubtful that numbers like these hold an edge. BUT I will not say that it is impossible! I would say he *might* have an edge in the other positions but I don't know.

And the only reason I have tracked his picks is because no man can call ROK a jealous loser for 3 consecutive years in a row! Two years maybe -- but never 3! :-))))))

his key is the margin.
in the 4/22/2019 races he has 4 plays, he passed on 6 plays

his dutch $1 return was $1.71 on the dollar
a flat bet would have returned only $1.27.

the sum of 1/("win odds" as posted in the hk results) for his 3 plays is about
.50, above that he passed.
the $1 return on a .50 bet is $2.00

note. my calculations are based on the FINAL odds. I think he uses the 4 min to post time odds in calculating his margin

[ROK]

Margin means nothing if you do not have an edge -- meaning that he must know something that the market does not. (as I know you know) Simply betting what appears to be overlays based on a margin difference will still end in a loss without having an underlying edge.

I am not tracking his plays with all his 'substitutions', only the plays with his top 3 picks. I do not believe that he could turn a profit from the flat bet loss percentages that I posted by simply playing overlays. We will never know, however, because he makes many substitutions which cannot be analyzed objectively.

In my experience, those percentages do not suggest an underlying edge. That is just my opinion. And I did use a 172 race sample. Not a 1 day sample :-0

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. April 28, 2019… 67th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 82 Degrees Partly Cloudy 20% of Rain Wind: E 15 to 20 mph.

Post time: 12.45am ET, 9.45pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190428_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 4 Right Choice (4-1) Was all out in his last while getting a 16 pound weight advantage to #3 Time To Celebrate and he’s lost De Sousa (who's back in England) and picks up Rispoli which should be worth losing a couple lengths.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 463 (Winners: 1st, 5th & 8th, Second: 7th)
Race 1 Big Fortune (16-1)

Race 524 (Winners: 1st & 2nd, Second: 4th)
Race 1 Intrepic (23-1)

Race 170 (Winners: 2nd & 6th, Second: 7th)
Race 4 Doctor Geoff (7-1)

Race 500 (Winners: 2nd, 7th & 11th, Second: 5th & 6th) Class 4
Race 5 Splendour And Gold (2-1)

Race 429 (Winners: 1st & 4th, Second: 2nd)
Race 6 Little Giant (9-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 10 Fast Most Furious (11-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 2 Dan Control (4-5)
Race 4 Time To Celebrate (9-2)
Race 9 Uncle Steve (2-1)
Race 10 Full Of Beauty (3-2)
Race 10 Styling City (8-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 4 Right Choice (4-1)
Race 5 Unicorn Jewellery (5-1)
Race 9 Picken (19-1)
Race 9 Super Star (7-2)
Race 10 Full Of Beauty (3-2)
Race 10 Styling City (8-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 4 Time To Celebrate (9-2)
Race 10 New Asia Sunrise (33-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 9 Harmony Hero (10-1) After finishing a game second in his last to Brave Legend as the betting favourite today he drew the 12 post going 1 650 metres, and again set off as the 9-2 chalk. Heading into the first turn Callan wasn't able to get over and raced three wide entering the turn, down the backstretch he settled in the back third of the field. Entering the stretch he drifted out to the six path and closed to be a beaten 7th a length and a half behind Penang Hall who broke from the rail and was conceding 18 pounds to Harmony Hero. Hopefully, Gibson will be able to get a better rider and a luckier draw for his next out.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 1 Diamond Brilliant (9-2)
Race 4 Time To Celebrate (9-2)

Key Plays:
Race 4 Time To Celebrate (9-2)
Race 9 Harmony Hero (10-1)
Race 10 Styling City (8-1)

Longshots:
Race 5 Xiang Yin (17-1)
Race 8 Glorious Forever (13-1)

[AltonKelsey]

In this case, the edge

is so large, that like

a quantum singularity
it is nearly invisible

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with all 10 to be run on Turf: (from top Class to bottom) -
(3)-Class-GR1, (2)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (2)-Class-4

Post Time Race #1 – 12:45 AM SUN EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
This morning’s card looks wide open!
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1400M C4 (7F)T…. 3-6-1 W/ 5-7-8 …...12:45 AM


R#2- 1200M C3 (6F)T.… 1-13-10 W/ 12-14-7 ..1:15 AM


R#3– 1200M C4 (6F)T…. 5-3-4 W/ 9-1-7 …….1:45 AM


R#4- 1600M C2 (8F)T….. 7-3-9 W/ 11-3-12 ….2:15 AM


R#5- 1600M C3 (8F)T…. 9-8-3 W/ 11-4-10……..2:45 AM


R#6- 1200M GR1 (6F)T… 1-3-5 W/ 6-7----- …..3:20 AM


R#7– 1600M GR1 (8F)T….. 1-3-5 W/ 7------ .....4:00 AM


R#8- 2000M GR1 (10F)T.. 8-12-1 W/ 10-5-2 ……4:40 AM


R#9- 1400M C3 (7F)T….. 6-9-11 W/ 13-5-2…....5:15 AM


R#10- 1200M C2 (7F)T... 2-3-7 W/ 12-4-14 …..5:50 AM
.

.

[jocko699]

$20WP

Diamond Brilliant

[Nitro]

R#1- 1400M C4 (7F)T…. 3-6-1 W/ 5-7-8 …...12:45 AM

8-1-2-3– Dutch Loss -Passed / $73.00 Quinella

R#2- 1200M C3 (6F)T.… 1-13-10 W/ 12-14-7 ..1:15 AM

13-4-10-14– Dutch Win -Passed /

R#3– 1200M C4 (6F)T…. 5-3-4 W/ 9-1-7 …….1:45 AM

1-6-3-4– Dutch Loss -Passed /

R#4- 1600M C2 (8F)T….. 7-3-9 W/ 11-3-12 – ….2:15 AM

5-8-9-3– Dutch Loss (Typo) -Passed /

R#5- 1600M C3 (8F)T…. 9-8-3 W/ 11-4-10……..2:45 AM

13-7-10-3– Dutch Loss -Passed /

R#6- 1200M GR1 (6F)T… 1-3-5 W/ 6-7----- …..3:20 AM

3-5-4-1– Dutch Win -Passed /$13.70 Quinella

R#7– 1600M GR1 (8F)T….. 1-3-5 W/ 7------ .....4:00 AM

1-5-4-3– Dutch Win -Passed /$9.30 Quinella

R#8- 2000M GR1 (10F)T.. 8-12-1 W/ 10-5-2 ……4:40 AM

4-1-12-3– Dutch Loss -Passed /

R#9- 1400M C3 (7F)T….. 6-9-11 W/ 13-5-2…....5:15 AM

10-11-9-12– Dutch Loss -Passed /

R#10- 1200M C2 (7F)T... 2-3-7 W/ 12-4-14 …..5:50 AM

12-2-7-14– Dutch Loss-Passed / $11.30 Quinella & $178.60 Triple / ALL of that one!

It turned out to be a losing card. Due to previous commitments all of the Dutch Win bets were passed because I wasn’t following the live tote action. Too bad because a few of those Winners got some good late action.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. May 1, 2019… 68th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 73 Degrees Cloudy 30% chance of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190501_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 8 God Of Dragon (9-5) Catches a tough field to break his Hong Kong maiden and even though Ho has been hot lately he is still only 2 for 53 with Tony Cruz runners.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 439 (Winners; 5th & 10th, Second: 1st)
Race 4 C P Power (9-1)
Race 4 Glory Star (11-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 5 Victory Machine (23-1)
Race 8 Lucky Girl (16-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 4 Happy Warrior (3-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 7 Blitzing (7-2)

Distance specialists running tonight:
None

Class specialists running tonight:
Race 1 Mr Right (9-2)

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 1 Gunnar (5-2) After winning his last barrier trial and picking up the services of leading rider Zac Purton he looked like a first time starter winner for Casper Fownes but unfortunately he drew the 12 post at the draw. He broke on top and after some urging of Purton he was fighting for the lead with top weight Look Eras in a quick first 200 metres. The quick pace between those two continued into the stretch, and at the 200 metre mark Zac was riding like he had bet on himself but couldn't keep him up in the finale 50.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 4 Happy Warrior (3-1)
Race 7 Ballistic King (9-2)
Race 8 Merrygowin (14-1)
Race 8 All You Know (12-1)

Key Plays:
Race 1 Gunnar (5-2)
Race 6 Har Har Heart (9-2)

Longshots:
Race 8 Merrygowin (14-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 8 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) - (4)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 7:15 AM WED EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1000M C4 (5F)T..…6-4-3 W/ 11-8-1 …...7:15 AM


R#2- 1200M C5 (6F)T……8-9-1 W/ 7-2-11 ….…7:45 AM


R#3–1200M C4 (6F)T…...11-1-4 W/ 9-12-3 …..8:15 AM


R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T..3-1-5 W/ 9-2-10 …...8:45 AM


R#5- 1200M C3 (6F)T….....6-4-10 W/ 2-8-7 ….…9:15 AM


R#6- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T….1-3-9 W/ 8-4-2 …..9:45 AM


R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T…...10-11-1 W/ 8-4-12 ….10:15 AM


R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T…8-12-6 W/ 4-2-3 …..10:50 AM
.
.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. May 5, 2019… 69th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 76 Degrees 100% of rain Wind: E 15 to 25 mph.

Post time: 12.30am ET, 9.30pm PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190505_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 6 Bellagio (5-2) Has been away from the track since last November when he cut his leg finishing 4th at Happy Valley, playing that he may be a little short here.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 546 (Winners: 1st & 3rd, Second: 8th)
Race 2 Charter Thunder (12-1)

Race 537 (Winners: 3rd & 4th, Second: 1st)
Race 5 Sumstreetsumwhere (30-1)

Race 157 (Winners: 7th & 10th, Second: 1st)
Race 6 Bellagio (5-2)

Race 544 (Winners: 1st & 4th, Second: 2nd)
Race 8 Breeders’ Sky (45-1)
Race 8 Great Smart (68-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Fairy Twins (9-2)
Race 7 Victory Boys (2-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 1 Gala Night (10-1)
Race 3 Sunny Boy (2-1)
Race 6 Joyful Heart (8-1)
Race 7 Ho Ho Khan (2-1)
Race 10 Grand Chancellor (3-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 8 Multimillion (5-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 8 Goko (7-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 5 Sumstreetsumwhere (30-1) Was coming off a very nice 1 1/4 length win while beating off the chalk Har Har Heart, he picked up 13 pounds for that effort but did draw the rail. Unfortunately, at the break he leaped up onto his rear legs causing him to lose a couple lengths to the field, he then settled mid-pack while racing on the rail in the first turn. On the backside he was full of run but was fighting the bit with Harley while being stuck behind Ping Hai Treasure, when they entered the stretch Harley was beaten to the rail by Purton on Good Beauty and at the same time was blocked by a tiring front runner Thunder Stomp and at the 220 mark was forced to be taken up. He then switched off his proper lead leg and was wrapped up on and was allowed to gallop out to the wire.

Race 11 Silver Fig (2-1) Was all out to get up in his debut on the grass and for some reason was switched to the dirt for his next out and drew the 12 post going three quarters of a mile after an extended vacation from the track. He out broke the three under him and was placed in the third flight racing nearest the rail, was caught up in traffic entering the stretch when the lone front runner was trying to slow the pace down. Half-way thru the stretch while being full of run was still caught up in a pocket with no exit available running right behind first time starter and eventual winner War Lord for the John Size barn. Finally room became available at the 150 mark and he finished gamely to the wire but was unable to catch the winner.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 11 Prince Of Gems (3-1)
Race 11 Monkey Jewellery (10-1)

Key Plays:
Race 2 Silver Fig (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 Winning Circle (15-1)
Race 5 Sumstreetsumwhere (30-1)
Race 7 Insayshable (11-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 11 races at Sha Tin with all to be run on Turf:
(From top Class to bottom) -(5)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5, (1)-Class-6

Post Time Race #1 – 12:30 AM SUN EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
This morning’s card looks wide open!

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1000M C6 (5F)T… 8-6-1 W/ 2-7------ …12:30 AM


R#2- 1600M C5 (8F)T….… 2-7-1 W/ 12-4-9 .….1:00 AM


R#3– 1200M C3 (6F)T..…. 2-3-4 W/ 11-5-7 …..1:30 AM


R#4- 1000M C4 (5F)T..…. 9-3 6W/ 11-13-7 .….2:00 AM


R#5- 1400M C3 (7F)T…... 4-7-3 W/ 12-5-6 ….…2:30 AM


R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T…... 9-11-13 W/ 12-6-8 …3:00 AM


R#7– 2400M C3 (12F)T….. 4-2-9 W/ 10-6-7 …...3:35 AM


R#8- 1000M C3 (5F)T…… 2-13-5 W/ 4-11-6 ..….4:05 AM


R#9- 1600M C4 (8F)T..… 7-11-14 W/ 9-12-1…….4:35 AM


R#10- 2000M C3 (10F)T... 3-5-10 W/ 2-6-11 …..5:10 AM


R#11- 1200M C4 (6F)T.... 3-1-10 W/ 9-11-5 …..5:45 AM
.
.