Rice on Fire

[Cutter14]

As hot as Linda Rice's horse were before the Saratoga meet her horses are running out of their skin now-winning at over 30%-she now qualifies as a "super trainer"---just wondering?

[$w1fT]

I’ve drawn my conclusions back in the winter.

[classhandicapper]

A big part of trainer win% is just getting horses in the right spot and getting them to fire their "A" race more often than average.

If you just look at beaten favorites, a huge percentage of them lose because they don't run back to the race(s) people were betting them off. If those horses would simply run back to their races more often, the win% for favorites would be much higher.

Rice has a barn full of horses that are firing their "A" race much more often than average and she's putting them where they belong. So she's winning when she's best and she's winning sometimes because the better horses are misfiring more than hers.

[cj]

I saw someone complaining her horses are running big figs, but I'm not sure that is true. I'll run a query later today and see how much her winners are moving up. Winners generally do move up quite a bit on average, which is a big part of speed figure making. It can be easy to underestimate.

[BobBaffertsSyringe]

Originally Posted by $w1fT

I’ve drawn my conclusions back in the winter.

Most likely the same concluded deduction as I have on her.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

I saw someone complaining her horses are running big figs, but I'm not sure that is true. I'll run a query later today and see how much her winners are moving up. Winners generally do move up quite a bit on average, which is a big part of speed figure making. It can be easy to underestimate.

If you can, break out the trainer changes from non trainer changes. Maybe just look at older horses because the younger lightly raced ones would be expected to improve.

[Robert Fischer]

Are they moving up?
you look at whether speed figs are improving, as well as performance figs.

then you look at what class level these improvements are coming at. Is she dropping everything to hopefully win the meet's training title over Chad and Todd??

At Saratoga, sans many scratches, a given claiming price will generally be more competitive than at other meets. Therefore, it is best to use a quality race-rating metric, or some combination of a metric, price, purse, and field-size.

[Robert Fischer]

part of her reputation (and I don't even know if it's statistically accurate) is that a good portion of her stock, and/or a portion relatively higher than other volume trainers, is claimed at other tracks to run in Saratoga and the better meets.

From my distant and mostly-clueless view, it's a good model.

Occasionally there are good deals with owners happy to lose a horse post Churchill or Oaklawn etc...

Then, I believe there is a 'jail' or some claiming restriction where a horse claimed late in the Churchill Downs meet can't run back after the final meet day's entries have been taken.
Most owners and trainers probably see this as a deterrent. (and that could also lead to some additional drop-to-win types who doubt claiming teams will wait).
Then you have some trainers, which Rice seems to be one, that are very happy to run their horses with more than 30days or so between races.
We touched on this in another thread recently in the Ray Handal thread.
I don't know what percentage of starts with 30 or more days of rest between starts looks like compared to other volume trainers. It may well be higher.