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09-15-2023, 03:30 PM
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#1
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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WORTHY OF A THREAD OF ITS OWN. FORMULA'S 500 EXACTA RACE STUDY
THERE ARE TWO SEGMENTS WITH SIGNIFICANT PROFITS.
THE QUESTION IS, WILL THESE PROFITABLE SEGMENTS REVERT TO THE MEAN IN THE NEXT 500 RACES. I WILL WORK ON THAT.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 09-15-2023 at 03:34 PM.
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09-15-2023, 04:25 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,738
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Have you placed a bet yet?
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09-15-2023, 04:33 PM
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#3
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete
Have you placed a bet yet?
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Nope. At this point betting is a distraction. I'm onto bigger things, like the next 500 race!! 
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-16-2023, 02:33 PM
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#4
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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There is one additional element which is not charted. It's the one that has held my interest. It's a "play", " no play" designation. I'll chart it shortly along with yesterday's results. I have a touch of the gout today, slowing me down a bit. However I am looking at the belmont 4th race. 2nd choice is the 6. Just need the bet size calculation.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 09-16-2023 at 02:39 PM.
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09-16-2023, 07:14 PM
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#5
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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YESTERDAY'S RESULTS FOR ALL SEGMENTS
$1 EXACTA RETURN $1.04
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-17-2023, 08:51 AM
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#6
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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2-DAY RESULTS FOR ALL SEGMENTS. 42 RACES
$1 EXACTA RETURN $0.80
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-17-2023, 11:20 PM
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#7
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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3-DAY RESULTS FOR ALL SEGMENTS. 61 RACES
$1 EXACTA RETURN remains at $0.80
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-18-2023, 10:37 PM
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#8
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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4-DAY RESULTS FOR ALL SEGMENTS. 86 RACES
$1 EXACTA RETURN INCREASED TO $0.90
I BROKE OUT THE SEGMENTS 1.1 AND 3 THAT COMBINED FOR A PROFIT OF $1.01 ON TH EDOLLAR.
I STILL NEED TO PRESENT THE YEA AND NAY PLAYS
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 09-18-2023 at 10:51 PM.
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09-19-2023, 03:37 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,738
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at best a one-penny return is worthy of a thread of its own? 
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09-19-2023, 10:38 PM
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#10
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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5-DAY RESULTS FOR ALL EXACTA SEGMENTS. 116 RACES
$1 EXACTA RETURN WAS $0.78
I BROKE OUT THE EXACTA SEGMENTS 1.1 AND 3 WHICH COMBINED TO RETURN $0.94 ON THE DOLLAR
ADDITIONALLY, THE WIN BET SEGMENTS 1.1 AND 3 COMBINED TO RETURN A FLAT BET WIN PROFIT OF $1.10, WINNING 16 OF 63 RACES.
AN OBSERVATION THE 1.1 EXACTA SEGMENT IF OFFERING A POSITIVE RETURN BUT NOT WINNING THEIR SHARE.
THE 3 EXACTA SEGMENT IS WINNING THEIR SHARE BUT OFFERING POOR RETURNS.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-20-2023, 11:29 PM
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#11
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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6-DAY RESULTS FOR ALL EXACTA SEGMENTS. 151 RACES
$1 EXACTA RETURN WAS $0.83
I BROKE OUT THE EXACTA SEGMENTS 1.1 AND 3 WHICH IN 80 RACES, COMBINED TO RETURN $0.99 ON THE DOLLAR
ADDITIONALLY, THE WIN BET SEGMENTS 1.1 AND 3 COMBINED TO RETURN A FLAT BET WIN PROFIT OF $1.03, WINNING 19 OF 80 RACES.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-21-2023, 10:53 AM
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#12
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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I need to be thankful to the "Late Money Bettors" for my biggest win of the day.
Pen race 2 which was rated as my segment 3 class.
the significant late money went this way:
#7, probability increased by 141%
#9, probability increased by 181 %
#10, probability increased by 106%
they all lost
my winner, #5 probability decreased by 18%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-21-2023, 01:39 PM
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#13
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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here is an interesting point regarding the segments 1.1 and 3.
in the 500 out of sample races the betting choice returned $0.97 exacta dollars in over 150 races.
in the current out of sample races they returned $1.08.
I will follow up with this.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-21-2023, 11:15 PM
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#14
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
here is an interesting point regarding the segments 1.1 and 3.
in the 500 out of sample races the betting choice returned $0.97 exacta dollars in over 150 races.
in the current out of sample races they returned $1.08.
I will follow up with this.
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after today's race that figure went up to $1.10
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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09-21-2023, 11:21 PM
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#15
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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7-DAY RESULTS FOR ALL EXACTA SEGMENTS. 181 RACES
$1 EXACTA RETURN WAS $0.78
I BROKE OUT THE EXACTA SEGMENTS 1.1 AND 3 WHICH IN 101 RACES, COMBINED TO RETURN $0.92 ON THE DOLLAR
ADDITIONALLY, THE WIN BET SEGMENTS 1.1 AND 3 COMBINED TO RETURN A FLAT BET WIN PROFIT OF $ 0.97, WINNING 23 OF 101 RACES.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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