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Old 03-24-2019, 05:40 AM   #676
Hypnotist1
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RACE 6 5 DQ

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Originally Posted by Hypnotist1 View Post
THANK YOU
THE 12 CAME IN ON THE 5 THE 12 SHOULD HAVE BEEN DQ I WATCHED THE REPLAY 5 TIMES
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Old 03-24-2019, 05:41 AM   #677
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UPDATE- R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T...8-1-3 W/ 6-10-12 ….5:50 AM EST
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Old 03-24-2019, 05:45 AM   #678
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UPDATE- R#9- 1650M C3 (8.25F)D…1-7-8 W/ 2-6-11 .5:15 AM EST
8-5-12-2– Dutch Win 54% Profit Margin /
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Old 03-24-2019, 05:56 AM   #679
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R 10 12

LOTS OF ACTION ON 12
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Old 03-24-2019, 06:09 AM   #680
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UPDATE- R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T...8-1-3 W/ 6-10-12 ….5:50 AM EST
1-11-3-14– Dutch Win 55% Profit Margin /

In spite of the tough DQ in Race #6, it turned out to be another profitable card with some decent Dutching opportunities. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of only 26%, and came from hitting 5 of 7 playable races
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Old 03-24-2019, 08:05 AM   #681
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hk race 1 03-24-2019


Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
13-1-2-7– Dutch Loss 60% Profit Margin-Passed /
Nitro, please let me know if the attached "dutching panel" is correct.
using final odds, I calculate a positive return of 70%. final tote board odds are used. I understand you may have used the 4 minutes to post time odds.

I have also attached my preferred method of odds analysis, which is based on proportional odds. both methods come to the same conclusions.
by using the proportional odds, its clear to see to maintain a 50%, edge the % of pool wagered upon, cannot exceed 50%.

no adjustments have been made for the 17%+-

thanks

Attached Images
File Type: png hk r1 3-24-2019 PROPORTIONAL ODDS.PNG (32.0 KB, 5 views)
File Type: png hk r1 3-24-2019.PNG (33.8 KB, 5 views)
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Old 03-24-2019, 12:57 PM   #682
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hypnotist1 View Post
THE 12 CAME IN ON THE 5 THE 12 SHOULD HAVE BEEN DQ I WATCHED THE REPLAY 5 TIMES
They use a different system on DQ'ing runners in Hong Kong than they do here in North America. In the four plus years that I have been playing HK I can only remember three runners being taken down and that includes yesterday's disqualification.

https://racingthinktank.com/reports/...changing-rules
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Old 03-26-2019, 07:08 PM   #683
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. March 27, 2019… 58th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 71 Degrees Partly Cloudy 20% of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190327_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 7 Little Bird (5-2) A need for lead type in a race with plenty of other speed and a couple that will breaking under him at the gate. He was aided by a speed favouring track and held off Dragon Pioneer who refused to switch to his proper lead step in the lane in his last out.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 454 (Winners: 8th & 10th, Second: 4th)
Race 3 After Me (22-1)
Race 4 Mr Right (20-1)

Race 455 (Winners: 2nd & 5th, Second: 6th)
Race 3 Exceptional Desire (31-1)
Race 4 Everbrave (14-1)

Race 419 (Winners: 2nd & 7th, Second: 3rd & 5th)
Race 5 Happy Dragon (12-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
None

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 2 Mister Monte (6-1)
Race 4 Frustrated (even)
Race 5 Helene Charisma (7-5)
Race 8 Good Beauty (5-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
None

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 7 Moment Of Power (10-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
Race 4 Mr Right (20-1)

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
None

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 6 Fearless Fire (10-1)

Key Plays:
Race 3 Jolly Bountiful (6-1)
Race 6 Joyful Union (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 Salto Olimpico (14-1)
Race 4 Everbrave (14-1)
Race 5 Happy Dragon (12-1)
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Old 03-26-2019, 11:45 PM   #684
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Cool HONG KONG – HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 3/27/19

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 8 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) -
(1)-Class-2 (3)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4

Post Time Race #1 – 7:15 AM WED EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks, but the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T…9-4-8 W/ 2-12-3 ….7:15 AM
(May sub (2, 12, 3) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#2- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T...4-3-5 W/ 6-10-7 .…7:45 AM
(May sub (6, 10, 7) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#3– 1200M C4 (6F)T…..5-9-10 W/ 7-8-3 …...8:15 AM
(May sub (7, 8, 3) into Top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#4- 1000M C4 (5F)T…....1-4-8 W/ 7-9-3 …...8:45 AM
(May sub (7, 9, 3) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#5- 2200M C3 (11F)T...4-5-9 W/ 10-1-3….…9:15 AM
(May sub (10,1, 3)) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#6- 1200M C3 (6F)T…..4-12-3 W/ 8-11-5 …..9:45 AM
(May sub (8, 11, 5) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#7– 1000M C2 (5F)T…..2-9-7 W/ 6-5-10 …...10:15 AM
(May sub (6, 5, 10) into top 3 if live tote dictates)

R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T..12-4-8 W/ 10-11-7 …9:50 AM
(May sub (10, 11, 7) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
.
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Old 03-27-2019, 12:58 PM   #685
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Thumbs up

Quote:
R#1- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T…9-4-8 W/ 2-12-3 ….7:15 AM
(May sub (2, 12, 3) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
9-11-8-5– Big Dutch Win 123% Margin /

Quote:
R#2- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T...4-3-5 W/ 6-10-7 .…7:45 AM
(May sub (6, 10, 7) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
7-3-10-6– Dutch Loss 21% Margin-Passed / $34.50 Quinella & $1004.20 Triple Box / ALL of that one!

Quote:
R#3– 1200M C4 (6F)T…..5-9-8 W/ 7-3-4 – Sub #8 (good action) for #10 (no action) …...8:15 AM
(May sub (7, 8, 3) into Top 3 if live tote dictates)
8-9-5-12– Dutch Win 46% Margin-Passed / $33.60 Quinella & $339.00 Triple Box / ALL of that one!

Quote:
R#4- 1000M C4 (5F)T…..1-4-8 W/ 7-9-3 …...8:45 AM
(May sub (7, 9, 3) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
1-4-9-2– Dutch Win 18% Margin-Passed / $8.60 Quinella & $212.60 Triple Box / ALL of that one!

Quote:
R#5- 2200M C3 (11F)T...4-5-9 W/ 10-1-3….…9:15 AM
(May sub (10,1, 3)) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
4-9-2-11– Big Dutch Win 108% Margin/ $47.30 Quinella
Quote:
R#6- 1200M C3 (6F)T…...4-12-3 W/ 8-11-5 …..9:45 AM
(May sub (8, 11, 5) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
4-7-12-8– Dutch Win 81% Margin

Quote:
R#7– 1000M C2 (5F)T…....2-9-7 W/ 6-5-10 …...10:15 AM
(May sub (6, 5, 10) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
7-6-9-5– Big Dutch Win 334% Margin / $19.80 Quinella & $1211.40 Triple Box / ALL of that one!
Quote:
R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T..12-4-8 W/ 10-11-7 ….…9:50 AM
(May sub (10, 11, 7) into top 3 if live tote dictates)
7-11-12-4– Dutch Loss 42% Margin-Passed / $107.70 Quinella & $1018.80 Triple Box / ALL of that one!

It was another very profitable card. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 155% (the largest Profit so far at this meet) and was hit from the first 4 of 4 playable races. Also hit were a number of Quinellas and nice size Triples.

.
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Old 03-29-2019, 10:48 PM   #686
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Nitro, it seems to be the time for me to say "Nice Work".
I have reviewed about 20 of your dutch plays. I keep waiting for the bottom to fall out and it doesn't..

But I'll keep looking
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Old 03-30-2019, 05:23 PM   #687
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. March 31, 2019… 59th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 74 Degrees Showers Wind: E 20 to 30mph.

Post time: 12.45am ET, 9.45pm PT. Rail: Course “A+3”, track listed: oodG

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190331_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 2 Indigenous Star (7-2) Ran a game fifth in one of the exhibition races at Conghua last week while being blocked in the stretch, but he is 1 for 26 at Sha Tin and 0 for 7 at this class level, don’t understand why he hasn’t tried the dirt being out of a Dynaformer mare.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 463 (Winners: 5th & 8th, Second: 7th)
Race 1 Solar Billion (25-1)
Race 6 Perfect Pair (2-1)

Race 464 (Winners: 2nd & 9th, Second: 6th)
Race 1 Super Eighteen (9-1)
Race 3 Happy Boyboy (19-1)
Race 6 E Star (7-1)
Race 6 Happy Alumni (9-5)

Race 351 (Winners: 1st & 10th, Second: 2nd, 5th & 8th)
Race 4 Fabulous Eight (8-1)

Race 447 (Winners: 6th, 9th & 11th, Second: 2nd)
Race 4 Family Leader (13-1)
Race 5 Sunny Power (11-1)
Race 5 London Hall (7-2)
Race 10 I Do (9-1)

Race 77 (Winners: 1st & 11th, Second: 7th)
Race 6 Shanghai Dragon (30-1)

Race 450 (Winners: 1st & 2nd, Second: 7th)
Race 7 Sun Sun Fa Fa (24-1)
Race 8 Tang Fleming (47-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Regency Darling (7-1)
Race 9 King Opie (5-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 9 Lean Perfection (8-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 9 Lean Perfection (8-1)
Race 9 Tornado Twist (5-2)
Race 9 King Opie (5-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 7 Champion’s Way (2-5)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 10 Not Usual Talent (5-1) Ran a game second at 247-1 in his previous race after rallying wide into the stretch, and drew a much better post today than his previous out. Was bet much heavier in this try going off at 6-1, he broke well and was placed mid-pack. Three hundred metres away from the start he was bumped sideways pretty hard from Smart Patch who was racing underneath him, Bayliss was unable to get him near the rail and raced three wide into the turn. Entering the stretch he drifted out to the five path for running room and at the 100 metre mark looked the winner but was out finished by the Size trainer Purton ridden Unicron Jewellery who was conceding five pounds and a slightly easier trip.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 8 Better Choice (5-1)
Race 9 Coby Boy (20-1)
Race 9 Tornado Twist (5-2)
Race 10 Starlit Knight (32-1)

Key Plays:
Race 8 Xiang Yin (9-2)
Race 9 Tornado Twist (5-2)
Race 10 Not Usual Talent (5-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 Surewin (22-1)
Race 5 Flash Famous (11-1)
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Old 03-30-2019, 11:08 PM   #688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Nitro, it seems to be the time for me to say "Nice Work".
I have reviewed about 20 of your dutch plays. I keep waiting for the bottom to fall out and it doesn't..

But I'll keep looking
Hi there Formula!
Comments like that coming from someone with your obvious dedication are appreciated. They are also a far cry from all of the negativity rampant within the content of so many threads on PA.

The only way for "the bottom to fall out" with this 3-entry Dutch Win scheme would be for me to either receive erroneous tote data, or by forcing the issue making poor selections based on an emotional and greedy premise.

You can keep on looking because I don't have any immediate plans for letting myself down (or anyone else who enjoys making money at races in Hong Kong.

Good luck.
Nick
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Old 03-31-2019, 12:14 AM   #689
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Cool HONG KONG - SHA TIN SUN- 3/31/19

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 8 to be run on Turf and 2 on the Dirt:
(from top Class to bottom) -
(2)-Class-2, (2)-Class-3, (5)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5


Post Time Race #1 – 12:45 AM SUN EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall early picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores. This morning’s card looks wide open!

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1200M C4 (6F)T…. 10-4-12 W/ 7-11-5 ….12:45 AM


R#2- 1600M C5 (8F)T.…12-1-6 W/ 12-3-9 ………1:15 AM


R#3– 1200M C4 (6F)T… 4-12-1 W/ 5-2-13 …….1:45 AM


R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T….. 3-1-13 W/ 5-11-4 …...2:15 AM


R#5- 1800M C4 (9F)D….. 10-7-3 W/ 5-1-8…....3:05 AM


R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)D…. 2-5-4 W/ 10-13-14 ....3:40 AM


R#7– 1200M C2 (6F)T…. 1-11-12 W/ 14-10-5 ... 4:10 AM


R#8- 1400M C3 (7F)T..… 3-8-13 W/ 11-14-4 ……4:40 AM


R#9- 1200M C2 (6F)T.…. 9-12-10 W/ 7-1-6 …….5:15 AM


R#10- 1600M C3 (8F)D... 5-2-8 W/ 1-12-14 …...5:50 AM
.
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Old 03-31-2019, 12:54 AM   #690
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Well done Nitro!! Great way to start sir...
ALL OF IT

Was looking at your Weds posts....holy cats!!!
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