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Old 03-23-2019, 06:25 PM   #16
Tom
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Case in point - LA Derby today.
The winner, at 22-1 was one where the fig manipulated with byh the Beyer guy. If you used TFUS number - 20, his MSW fig was good enough to contend today. Beyer guys broken out 2 races that didn't need to be broken out for any reason I can see.

These are the races I live for!
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Old 03-23-2019, 06:41 PM   #17
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Case in point - LA Derby today.
The winner, at 22-1 was one where the fig manipulated with byh the Beyer guy. If you used TFUS number - 20, his MSW fig was good enough to contend today. Beyer guys broken out 2 races that didn't need to be broken out for any reason I can see.

These are the races I live for!
Nicely done.

In an interesting twist, the Louisiana Derby had the timer malfunction!
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Old 03-23-2019, 07:10 PM   #18
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Nicely done.

In an interesting twist, the Louisiana Derby had the timer malfunction!
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Old 03-23-2019, 07:14 PM   #19
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Hey Tom

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
Case in point - LA Derby today.
The winner, at 22-1 was one where the fig manipulated with byh the Beyer guy. If you used TFUS number - 20, his MSW fig was good enough to contend today. Beyer guys broken out 2 races that didn't need to be broken out for any reason I can see.

These are the races I live for!

What do u mean by TFUS figure -20 His Timform numbers were vere low compared to the rest of the field

Bob
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Old 03-23-2019, 07:17 PM   #20
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What do u mean by TFUS figure -20 His Timform numbers were vere low compared to the rest of the field

Bob
He means a rough estimate of the Beyer is TFUS - 20, but in this case I'm guessing the Beyer was lower than 84.

This horse ran 104 last out, War of Will had highest last race at 110. I don't call that "very low" personally. But he certainly wasn't the top figure by any means.
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Old 03-24-2019, 10:22 AM   #21
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78 Beyer.
When I converted it all to Quirn, his race came back 102-104, slightly to the late side, and the Risen Star came back 108-108. I actually gave the race an 88, in line with the Risen Star that day.

I looked for the maiden to make a move ahead and possible a regression for WoW.
The stable was very high on his "awakening" so if he moves 2 lengths and WoW comes back 2.....

He was 58-1 when I bet him - not a lot of hesitation on my part!
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Old 03-24-2019, 11:41 AM   #22
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Nicely done.

In an interesting twist, the Louisiana Derby had the timer malfunction!
Thanks for that tidbit.

When I looked at the time after the race I was shocked by how fast it was. That explains it.
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Old 03-24-2019, 11:48 AM   #23
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Interesting, the Mineshaft, on Risen Star Day, was the other race broken out by the Beyer guys. Slower than both he Risen Star and the 3yoF stake by almost a full second off slow early pace. I just ignored that race as not at all useable.
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Old 03-24-2019, 11:54 AM   #24
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Case in point - LA Derby today.
The winner, at 22-1 was one where the fig manipulated with byh the Beyer guy. If you used TFUS number - 20, his MSW fig was good enough to contend today. Beyer guys broken out 2 races that didn't need to be broken out for any reason I can see.

These are the races I live for!
Fabulous catch.

It looks like they just went back and changed it.

In the PPs yesterday it said 78. Now if you go to the chart in Formulator it says 86.

That is SO annoying.

I understand conceptually why you might want to break a race out that looks too fast or slow. But when there wasn't a significant change in the weather, track condition or wind, you should at least have a rational explanation for doing it (like track watering). That goes double when it's a maiden race for young horses that are way more likely to jump up.

That was a bad error.

No way that horse goes off that long if the figure showed an 86 with an improving workout pattern.
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Old 03-24-2019, 12:10 PM   #25
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Good thing they didn't do it Friday!

I see a lot of Beyers get changed after the fact - especially at NYRA.
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Old 03-24-2019, 12:24 PM   #26
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Good thing they didn't do it Friday!

I see a lot of Beyers get changed after the fact - especially at NYRA.
I used to track the variant exactly the way you do for just NYRA. That way I had a better understanding of each day and what they did. But I do so much work as it is, there's a limit to what I can do. So I stopped.

As we see, it be valuable information if you disagree with the published figure.

This is one of many reasons why I whine about figures.

I only put $12 into that race for fun and probably wouldn't have won anyway, but that's a major issue. The default should be to NOT break races out unless it's obvious the track changed. There are loads of reasons a race could come up faster or slower than expected that have nothing to do with the variant, including a few of the horses just happened to improve or get worse on the same day.
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Old 03-24-2019, 12:50 PM   #27
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I used to track the variant exactly the way you do for just NYRA. That way I had a better understanding of each day and what they did. But I do so much work as it is, there's a limit to what I can do. So I stopped.

As we see, it be valuable information if you disagree with the published figure.

This is one of many reasons why I whine about figures.

I only put $12 into that race for fun and probably wouldn't have won anyway, but that's a major issue. The default should be to NOT break races out unless it's obvious the track changed. There are loads of reasons a race could come up faster or slower than expected that have nothing to do with the variant, including a few of the horses just happened to improve or get worse on the same day.
Not that it matters much, but I doubt Beyer is doing FG figures. Probably Moss.
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Old 03-24-2019, 01:03 PM   #28
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He was 58-1 when I bet him
And he went off at 22-1. So I'm thinking the drinks are on you the next time we get together.
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Old 03-24-2019, 01:50 PM   #29
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For the record, the hand times of the Louisiana Derby are really spot on. I'd bet whoever did it used video. They are way too accurate to be hand times. You'd have a better shot of hitting the Powerball than getting every call that good with a stopwatch.

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Old 03-24-2019, 04:21 PM   #30
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Wow!
I owe them an apology for another post elsewhere!

Was it really that much faster than the Older Stake?
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