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Old 06-09-2010, 12:30 PM   #1
pktruckdriver
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Is it Possible?

Most of the successful handicappers of our time all started with success in other area's, some wrote books and other had other businessess. I am wondering if there have been any that started with nothing and made it in this business, by handicapping , not selling anything, but by playing his or her picks.

If not then I want to be the first one to do so, and if not then maybe we could share the light on the others you may know who have succeeded in this business and are now very successful.

There are plenty of people making a decent living playing the ponies, this much I am sure of, more than we may think, as most successful handicappers are loner type's and keep the strategies close to the vest, why not , makes sense.

Well I am at a Mid-Life point and have hit rock bottom, but I now have a chance to pursue my dream, "The Horse's", and I feel I have the right people around me to help me get there, but wanted to explore if others were in my shoes and had any advice, as I am definetly open for any and all advice, except for any negative and demeaning advice, of course.

I hope this post is taken the right way and maybe some good can come from it, and not too many ,"Hey stupid what'ya doing , comments", and let a man pursue his dreams and enjoy the ride to success, no matter how long the journey is...

Thanks

Patrick

Last edited by pktruckdriver; 06-09-2010 at 12:32 PM.
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Old 06-09-2010, 01:02 PM   #2
SoCalCircuit
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If I'm not mistaken I thought I heard Andy Beyer started with little to no money but devised a new betting angle ala the BSFs and it was very successful, and he used that to pay his way through college. Later on he would go publish his books, etc, but before that I think he was just a regular guy playing his picks with his revolutionary handicapping angle.
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Old 06-09-2010, 01:07 PM   #3
Robert Goren
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I don't think that there are very many people out there making a living playing the horses these days. There some whales that do. I think in this game you are either making a lot of money or you fighting to stay even. I just don't think there are very people out there making $50,000 to $100,000. But I could be wrong.
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Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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Old 06-09-2010, 01:15 PM   #4
Robert Goren
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalCircuit
If I'm not mistaken I thought I heard Andy Beyer started with little to no money but devised a new betting angle ala the BSFs and it was very successful, and he used that to pay his way through college. Later on he would go publish his books, etc, but before that I think he was just a regular guy playing his picks with his revolutionary handicapping angle.
But he took a job writing for a newspaper for a steady income. I knew a guy who did it the 50s and 60s. He said the hard part was being able handle the losing. It eats at you. Do make money at as hobby. If you do, then you have a chance.
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Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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Old 06-09-2010, 01:25 PM   #5
Ocala Mike
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Is it Possible?

It was for this guy:

http://timelesswealth.net/articles/t...he_horses.html

I believe Mr. Dahlman is a member of this group, so maybe he'll weigh in on this.


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Old 06-09-2010, 01:47 PM   #6
thaskalos
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pktruckdriver
Most of the successful handicappers of our time all started with success in other area's, some wrote books and other had other businessess. I am wondering if there have been any that started with nothing and made it in this business, by handicapping , not selling anything, but by playing his or her picks.

If not then I want to be the first one to do so, and if not then maybe we could share the light on the others you may know who have succeeded in this business and are now very successful.

There are plenty of people making a decent living playing the ponies, this much I am sure of, more than we may think, as most successful handicappers are loner type's and keep the strategies close to the vest, why not , makes sense.

Well I am at a Mid-Life point and have hit rock bottom, but I now have a chance to pursue my dream, "The Horse's", and I feel I have the right people around me to help me get there, but wanted to explore if others were in my shoes and had any advice, as I am definetly open for any and all advice, except for any negative and demeaning advice, of course.

I hope this post is taken the right way and maybe some good can come from it, and not too many ,"Hey stupid what'ya doing , comments", and let a man pursue his dreams and enjoy the ride to success, no matter how long the journey is...

Thanks

Patrick
Patrick,

You don't supply us with enough personal details about yourself, so it's hard to give you "concrete" advice.

You say that you are "at a Mid-Life point and have hit rock bottom". That can be interpreted in different ways.

I can tell you that you are not alone. Many of us have been stuck in jobs that we "hate", and would love to be able to earn our living playing a game we love. Sometimes...life's difficulties target our emotions, and we start rethinking our life, wondering if, perhaps, we are wasting it.

In 2004 I lost my wife of 14 years to a dreaded disease. She was 37 years old...and I was left alone to care for our 4 year old son. Going back to my regular job was unthinkable, because I was afraid of "abandoning" my son at a time when he needed me most.

I, like you, started wondering if it was possible to earn my living by playing this game professionaly. I had been playing this game for many years prior, and my results were pretty good over-all...mainly because of my high level of discipline. "Perhaps...if I took the game a little more seriously...it could be done", I kept trying to convince myself...

I will give you the same advice that I, myself eventually followed.

Don't make life-changing decisions when you feel you are at "rock bottom" emotionally. Give yourself a little more time, and survey your options without being too emotional. If something has recently happened to make you feel like this...understand that, in time, your situation and your opinions may change...

Many of us have a dream of being the next "Andy Beyer" - myself included. Is it possible? Perhaps...

Is it likely?

Well...I guess each one of us has to answer that question for himself...

Last edited by thaskalos; 06-09-2010 at 01:53 PM.
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Old 06-09-2010, 03:32 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pktruckdriver
Most of the successful handicappers
There are a bunch of people/computers out there that can handicap plenty good enough.

Learn how to bet the money like a pro and you'll be ahead of 99.9% of those handicappers.

So next time say "Many of the successful bettors". When someone successful at making money in this game sees the word handicapper, they know he's a loser or a in rare cases, a severe underacheiver.
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Old 06-09-2010, 03:44 PM   #8
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It Can Be Done

Quote:
Originally Posted by pktruckdriver
Most of the successful handicappers of our time all started with success in other area's, some wrote books and other had other businessess. I am wondering if there have been any that started with nothing and made it in this business, by handicapping , not selling anything, but by playing his or her picks.

If not then I want to be the first one to do so, and if not then maybe we could share the light on the others you may know who have succeeded in this business and are now very successful.

There are plenty of people making a decent living playing the ponies, this much I am sure of, more than we may think, as most successful handicappers are loner type's and keep the strategies close to the vest, why not , makes sense.

Well I am at a Mid-Life point and have hit rock bottom, but I now have a chance to pursue my dream, "The Horse's", and I feel I have the right people around me to help me get there, but wanted to explore if others were in my shoes and had any advice, as I am definetly open for any and all advice, except for any negative and demeaning advice, of course.

I hope this post is taken the right way and maybe some good can come from it, and not too many ,"Hey stupid what'ya doing , comments", and let a man pursue his dreams and enjoy the ride to success, no matter how long the journey is...

Thanks

Patrick
Keep at it. Patrick. There are secrets and guidelines to follow. Want to bet for a living ? . Bet on one circuit only, to start out with. Bet To Win. Minimize your plays, as much as possible. Never bet on Favorites. Pass races with Strong favorites. Bet all official method plays. Remember all unofficial plays, will lose guaranteed. I have known many great handicappers and aspiring pros , smarter than me but they kept betting side-bets and always losing. Then they would chase the losses and lose more. If you master one circuit, then you can look at another circuit. There is a pro who makes 100,000 a year betting at Sunway Park only. This can be done and it is being done.. Like Dick Mitchell has said. Our goal should be 25 percent winners at a 10 dollar average. People who don't think it can be done. Don't do it, period. People that are doing it. We do it. Period
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Old 06-09-2010, 03:48 PM   #9
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Theoretically is not impossible for somebody to grind small amount out of the pools earning a modest living although very few have managed to do it and even fewer relied to it as their only source of income. Most people deceive themselves, adapting ultra conservative strategies which although they extend their presence in the game they fail to show profitability and eventually have to refund their limited bankrolls.

A more realistic approach for a serious bettor would be to operate based in a decently sized bankroll (well in the four digits) shooting for the big paydays with relatively large bets proportional to the total amount available .

My advice to a small bettor who wants to give himself the opportunity to hit it big, is to try to build a bankroll taking larger than optimal chances, betting aggressively while his total capital is still small thus his risk is by default minimal in absolute value. A key point here is not to use the betting bankroll to cover living expenses, giving it the chance to grow fast and uninterrupted. As it will increase, a Kelly-level bet sizing will be reached, limited only by the pool – overlay relationship which should be constantly used thereafter.

The sad reality though, is that very few of us have the talent, determination and consistency required to beat this game and exactly because of this difficulty, the game is actually beatable!

Last edited by DeltaLover; 06-09-2010 at 03:50 PM.
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Old 06-09-2010, 04:40 PM   #10
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it takes all the fun out of it
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Old 06-09-2010, 05:30 PM   #11
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I have a goal to be able to make a living at this if I so choose once I prove I can do it. I'm treating it like a new business. Here's what I'm up to:

Step 1: I formulated a hypothesis - a handicapping/wagering theory that I ~think~ I'll be able to prove works for me. It involves taking things I've learned from other people/books/internet posts and experience and making them my own by using tools and information slightly differently than I've seen from other sources.

Step 2: Figured out what I wanted to achieve, and drew out a plan to marry my theory and my achievement goals. I'm opting for a high volume hands off automated approach that, if it works, will return maximum dollars with minimal daily time involvement.

First, I'm building out technology I'll need to execute my approach. I'm about "finished" building out my spreadsheet/VBA software that does all of the handicapping/wagering and tracking for me. I'll just maintain and troubleshoot.

Step 3: Gather enough data to determine whether my approach is worth full blown testing. I don't want to start wagering until I can return a positive paper testing ROI and be relatively sure it will hold up over time. I'm using the software exactly the same way I will if it works, I'm just not placing live wagers. I'm also populating with more and more tracks as the days go by. I probably have close to 20 tracks in my system now.

Step 4: Not here yet, but as tracks pass my Step 3 test, I'll begin making $2 wagers until I reach Step 5.

Step 5: Once I have 200 wagers with a positive ROI at a track/distance (sprint vs. route), I'll move my bet size up to half my max bet size based on bankroll.

Step 6: Once I have 500 wagers with a positive ROI at a track/distance, I'll move my bet size to maximum based on bankroll.

If it works, I'm a happy camper. If it doesn't work, my picks will be available for $20/track/day at w3.gimmeur$.com

As for advice, I'm not qualified, but if I were, it would be to take other people's opinions about how you should go about your business and shove it deep in the circular file. Think about what YOU want and work towards that goal. Unless there is some valid scientific reason for an opinion, it is just an opinion and is worth as much as you care to pay.

Last edited by 2low; 06-09-2010 at 05:35 PM.
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Old 06-09-2010, 06:06 PM   #12
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Creating a fully automated betting / trading model is not a simple task and goes far beyond Excel /VBA's and power user's capabilities.

To have some probability of success you need to be proficient in algorithms and data structures (for example graph theory, map reduce, genetic programming etc), have good understanding about pattern recognition methodologies, statistics and probability, data mining, and discrete mathematics in general.

In top of these you need to have some solid development experience as the challenges presented by the volume of data you will be dealing and the complexity of its processing are far from trivial and far exceed the capabilities of Excel / VBA requiring the use of both an imperative and a declarative language.
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Old 06-09-2010, 06:27 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
Creating a fully automated betting / trading model is not a simple task and goes far beyond Excel /VBA's and power user's capabilities.

To have some probability of success you need to be proficient in algorithms and data structures (for example graph theory, map reduce, genetic programming etc), have good understanding about pattern recognition methodologies, statistics and probability, data mining, and discrete mathematics in general.

In top of these you need to have some solid development experience as the challenges presented by the volume of data you will be dealing and the complexity of its processing are far from trivial and far exceed the capabilities of Excel / VBA requiring the use of both an imperative and a declarative language.
Dude. What?
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Old 06-09-2010, 06:54 PM   #14
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I believe there are people doing it. I am not one of them. I think the single most important quality is discipline. It is the one thing that everyone who knew a successful full timer said they had in common. Discipline to follow your handicapping rules and discipline to pass the races where you don't have a clear play of worthwhile value. There was a couple of good threads on this subject not too long ago. If I find it I will post it.

Found it
post

Personally I don't know what is causing you to feel like you are at a low point but if you have a job in this day and age I would keep it and restrict my play to days off. If you can't do it 2 days a week chances are the results will be the same for 5 or even 7 days a week. Good luck with whatever you choose.
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Old 06-09-2010, 07:52 PM   #15
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doesn't andy beyer have a steady job as a writer? and he gets income for the speed figures he sells.
i know he documented way back when a year where he made fifty thousand.
but how does anyone know if he makes that kind of money on a consistent basis without seeing his tax return?
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