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Old 06-10-2010, 08:33 AM   #31
nobeyerspls
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I once worked with a guy who hated his job and loved to fish. Went out on the lake or river whenever he could. He finally saved up a little money, bought a well equiped boat, and started a fishing guide business. Within a year he soured on his new career. When fishing became a job, it lost its appeal. That can happen with any hobby.
If you do go through with this remember a lesson I learned as a ten year-old kid watching the Friday night fights. In a welterweight bout a guy kept getting knocked down through the first seven rounds. I kept hoping that he would stay down for the count to avoid a further beating. Then in a later round his arm-weary opponent left his guard down and the guy knocked him out. I took that lesson with me when I started a business out of my home. You keep getting up and never stop swinging. To beat me they had to kill me. I'm semi-retired now with employees doing most of the work. My kids own 40% of the business but all they do is cash dividend checks as they have careers of their own.
So, be prepared for some setbacks early on but never give up.
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Old 06-10-2010, 09:59 AM   #32
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Patrick,

Winning at the races is for people on top of the game of life, not on the bottom.

There is just no short cut for this... you have steps in front of you that must be taken one at a time. Stabilize your life, lose weight and get healthier, support yourself... whatever they are specifically for you, these things must be tackled first. I think you know what the most important issues are.

Understand, I am not saying this cannot be done. Neither am I saying that you, personally, cannot do it. That part is up to you. What I am saying is for anyone in your situation, where you are right now, success at the window is so highly unlikely as to be qualified as impossible.


This is a very tough game just to beat, let alone make a living at. Look at the math...

The Math
Suppose you expect to make $25,000 per year, $500 per week. In today's society that is poverty level. So, how much do you have to wager to win just $500 per week?

Let's assume that you are going to be a highly selective player and make 10 bets per day with a 10% advantage. That means you have to wager $5,000 per week to win $500. With 10 bets per day, that would be 50 bets per week. $5,000 wagered divided by 50 bets means wagering $100 per race. You should have at least 100 such wagers in your pocket in order to play. So, where are you going to get $10,000?


Let's try it again, assuming less selectivity. Of course, less selectivity means less of an advantage. Let's assume that you're going to get 50 bets per day with a 3% advantage. That means 250 bets per week.

$500 per week divided by 3% means wagering $16,700. With a 3% advantage you should have certainly at least 200 wagers in your BR. Each bet needs to be $67 so you need $13,400.


One comes to playing professionally by starting small and developing a pattern of showing a profit over time. As your bankroll builds so does your confidence. As your confidence builds it feeds your profitability. The two go hand in hand to build your bankroll.

This advice comes from someone who has been at this game a long time.

Today, in your situation, going to the window is just gambling. That is simply not the right thing to do.


Kind Regards,
Dave Schwartz
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Old 06-10-2010, 10:17 AM   #33
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Possiable... sure,but highly highly unlikly.The onerous rake confiscatory taxation and increasingly tough competition makes if very very tough to win consistently.
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Old 06-10-2010, 11:28 AM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ocala Mike
It was for this guy:

http://timelesswealth.net/articles/t...he_horses.html

I believe Mr. Dahlman is a member of this group, so maybe he'll weigh in on this.


Ocala Mike
Patrick, for every "working on the big one, fence swinger" here, giving you advice, you'd benefit more by concentrating on what DaveS has written for you about the necessary onward steps concerning your life and the points regarding the math and the bankroll of wagering. This, in addition to the piece written about Ernie Dahlman. A feature I've never seen before now, and one many on this site should be grateful for having been linked. (The piece should be required reading for every horseplayer desiring success.)

These two men, Dave and Dahlman have, not years, . . . . but DECADES of experience at this game.

An excerpt from the article:

Be a "plodder," a nickel and dimer. "On average, (Dahlman) says, he earns 3 or 4 percent on his investment." He never bets serious money on long odds. Stick with the high probability setups. Don't try to hit home runs. "The point is, there's no such thing as a sure thing. Favorites win only a third of the time, an immutable racing statistic. Even successful bettors tear up more tickets than they cash. The trick is to cash enough tickets, at the right odds, to offset the losses and turn a profit. That's where addition and subtraction come in."

Patrick, this is coming from one who has made his living betting racehorses, not writing books, not creating software programs, not hustling stats for one's own website. Only betting. He's raised 6 children and has wagered as much as 18 million a year. Again, for decades. And he didn't do it "swinging for the fences."

On the rock bottom thing.

When problems or adversity exist in our lives, they remain with us wherever we go, whatever we're doing--day or night. They're relentless.

They walk with us, as well, through the gate of a racetrack. They're there--in our mind--front and center or in the back, they're there. They dont, and they won't, leave us. No matter how hard we wish them away or work to push them downward. Be assured, they will have profound affect on our ability to think clearly, and be successful at wagering on horseraces.

Hope should never leave us. But more importantly, rock bottom instability is one of the leading causes of severe dibilitating depression that can cause us to make decisions in our lives that would never, ever benefit us.

Please think about what I've written here.
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Old 06-10-2010, 11:30 AM   #35
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Even though it's not what you want to hear Patrick, I think you have a better chance of success if you work a full-time job and have a secure income and bet on the side. You're not going to make a living wagering, but the money pressure is much less and you can actually focus on making good bets. With the Internet, phone accounts, etc. you can still get your plays in and work, at least most of the time. I also think you'll derive more enjoyment if you treat racing as a hobby rather than a way of life. Once you've established you can show a profit this way (and I'm talking about ACTUAL WAGERING, not on paper), then you can think about making it a full-time thing. You (or anyone) really has to have their act together to do that though, and that's a point you reach, not where you start.
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Old 06-10-2010, 11:58 AM   #36
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Dave's response relative to playing horses to win is right on the money. This is why I have said in the little over a year I've been on the forum that playing gimmicks is the far, far easier way to go. Don't get me wrong, I have the deepest respect for those that bet win. They are purists and I commend them. But they are attempting the hardest thing in racing- a job made all the more difficult because of the-late money betting that goes on.

On this forum, Formula 2002 (Joe) consistently posts win-bet selections that approximate a 1.0 ROI. Could you simply make a reasonable living with this ability? Yes, but it involves a relationship with a high-rebate ADW and that generally will include volume restrictions (which at the moment are at a minimum of $1m annually wagered). Joe also dabbles in simple exacta plays, usually with the second favorite or favorite if his horse is not the favorite. This also yields him somewhere just south of a 1.0 return. Could you make even a bit more doing this? Yes, because the rebates are somewhat higher in the exacta pools.

Even with this possibility, I wouldn't consider it because when you get to complex verticals, the rebates explode and more importantly, the winning formula is easier, rather than harder. This is true because (as I have repeatedly said) the overlays in longer-shot verticals, particularly in supers, are far greater than you will ever find in the win pools. A quick example of this can be found by tracking the effect that longshots have on superfecta payouts. While a 25-1 shot will have an extremely low probability of winning, when you consider the effects that such an animal will have in a superfecta payout in a reasonably large field in any position on the ticket, you will see that his 25-1 odds to win will only be diminished to, say, roughly 17-1 in the fourth spot, but will then explode to well over 25-1 as his presence moves up in ticket rank.

Anyway, my purpose here is not to rehash this old territory, but simply to say to the original poster that if you want to make life easier on yourself, do not try to become a win-bet specialist. Instead, concentrate on the easier opportunities in complex gimmicks. As anyone who has followed me here will know (and I readily admit), I am not anywhere near the best handicapper on the forum. So I live on rebates and an easier niche, but this is a viable approach.
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Old 06-10-2010, 12:05 PM   #37
Ernie Dahlman
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the truth

Grits,

Excellent post. I would never encourage anyone to try to do what I've done. In truth I made a terrible career decision that happened to work out (so far). My son used to like to go to the track with me and I made it clear to him that he was not to try to follow in my footsteps. He graduated from Bucknell, got a job as a stock trader, did well, and started his own firm (with Simon Rose) called Dahlman Rose. He's done a lot better than his father.

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Old 06-10-2010, 12:06 PM   #38
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Is it Possible?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grits
This, in addition to the piece written about Ernie Dahlman. A feature I've never seen before now, and one many on this site should be grateful for having been linked. (The piece should be required reading for every horseplayer desiring success.)

You're welcome. I never met Mr. Dahlman, but I was "up close and personal" with his exploits at Yonkers Raceway back in the 80's when I worked there as an auditor for the NY State Dept. of Tax. and Finance.


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Old 06-10-2010, 12:24 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Patrick,

Winning at the races is for people on top of the game of life, not on the bottom.

There is just no short cut for this... you have steps in front of you that must be taken one at a time. Stabilize your life, lose weight and get healthier, support yourself... whatever they are specifically for you, these things must be tackled first. I think you know what the most important issues are.

Understand, I am not saying this cannot be done. Neither am I saying that you, personally, cannot do it. That part is up to you. What I am saying is for anyone in your situation, where you are right now, success at the window is so highly unlikely as to be qualified as impossible.


This is a very tough game just to beat, let alone make a living at. Look at the math...

Kind Regards,
Dave Schwartz
Patrick, Dave's math realities, is good think on this, I think...

Patrick take it from one who knows,(me), and you can read all about it once my book is finished, but I have been there.....In short, I had been working at a job that I loved, for some 22-years, and it was a very interesting and eventful job on an ongoing daily basis.....I never minded going to work... And the profit sharing and the wages were very nice indeed....Nice and steady and very secure...

I had always loved the horses, and the handicapping and betting part of it was ever on my mind at every moment that time would allow those thoughts and trips to the track to happen...After a whole bunch of years of flip flopping around, from one side of the kash-ledger to the other, after awhile I got pretty darned good at it....Then one day, from out of the blue, without any preplanning of the realities and eventualities that I would soon have to face without that steady income and security that I had gotten so used to, I just plain outright pulled the trigger and turned "pro"...Anyway !

At first, the first year, I made some serious kash and all was well, but by the 2d year I had managed to make some nice scores, BUT, I was just getting by , but you know, I was still "Living the Dream"....Well Patrick, let me shortcut all of this, after a year and a half of LTD, somehow it all fell apart....It seems that after awhile I wasn't willing to do all the "work" (and yes it is work, a full-time job), and I got sloppy and careless, and then as a result, all sorts of new and negative thinking entered into the picture, and it eventualy all began to spiral dowward...I had always been a partaker of left handed cigarettes and booze, but then after that it only got worse, and it was all downhill after that....As a result, I had become angry and disillusioned, and then I completely lost my way...

It was a heck of ride for awhile tho, but I finally had to fess up and find another way to make my way in life...Being a "Horse-Pro" is a tough gig, and my emotional side just wasn't able to contend with the pitfalls that "do" pop up in this game...It is easy to be a pro when things are going your way, but when negative things rear their ugly heads, well, that is whole-nuther ball game....Get it ?

I had the skill-set, and the bankroll, but there is more to it than that, Patrick...... I wasn't, by any stretch of the imagination, ready for "prime-time"....(I just didn't know it then)
================================================

Patrick, another facet to this game is being creative....It is like a "thesis" that one must write in order to get that higher-rated sheepskin....You must be able to "invent" (discover) at least one thing that will give you an edge over your competition, the crowd.....If you can't do that, you haven't got a shot Patrick....
================================================

Patrick, let your wagering records lead the way, they will tell you all that you need to know....

There are many good n' sharp players in this game, but, after all the expenses are considered, and given the sums of money that they continually wager, they are lucky to be just at the even mark....And that is not a negative, that is a hard thing to do, especially in this day and age....So, are you at least breaking even ?.... From recalling your posts, of not that long ago, I would find it hard to believe that you could have turned your game around enough, in so short a time, that you should even be considering a career as a Pro-horse bettor at this stage...That is the reality that I see with you....

Keep on with the dream Patrick, it is not an impossible dream, but smarter guys than me haven't been able to quite make it in this game as a Pro either, so I don't feel so bad, and you shouldn't either buddy...

best,
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Old 06-10-2010, 01:01 PM   #40
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Kash said................

"Patrick, another facet to this game is being creative....It is like a "thesis" that one must write in order to get that higher-rated sheepskin....You must be able to "invent" (discover) at least one thing that will give you an edge over your competition, the crowd.....If you can't do that, you haven't got a shot Patrick...."



Very very well put.


If you can't build a bank without the day to day grind of it, then NO, YOU can't do it yet.

Can you do it someday? As was said , you will have a shot AFTER you build the bank, either through the "score" or the "grind".

Your chance of a "score" would seem to be improved by some outside source of funds and then you can take wild stabs when the money is available.

That seems your only shot just going from prior postings.

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Old 06-10-2010, 03:16 PM   #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Winning at the races is for people on top of the game of life, not on the bottom.

There is just no short cut for this... you have steps in front of you that must be taken one at a time. Stabilize your life, lose weight and get healthier, support yourself... whatever they are specifically for you, these things must be tackled first. I think you know what the most important issues are.
Basically, Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs.

His pyramid of of self-actualization is one of the most practical theories in existence. One must fulfill basic needs before moving on to higher self-actualization ones.

Hence, the person who doesn't have a roof over their head, doesn't feel safe and secure, hasn't addressed psysiological needs like good health, is not ready to consider fulfilling the higher needs like how to use their musicial talent to turn it into greatness. Fullfilling deficiency needs (lower level needs) must be addressed before growth needs (fulfilling your highest potential).

Otherwise, one is motivated by fear, which in wagering is called "scared money".


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ernie Dahlman
Grits,

In truth I made a terrible career decision that happened to work out (so far).
A friend's advice to me, when I was balking at making a big decision: "even the less-than-best decision, if carried out with focus, zest, style and discipline and dedication, can turn out to be the right decision."

I used that many times in my life, and found out that the decision is the easy part. The real work comes afterwards, in sheparding the decision to a successful fruition, one that bears fruit.

Obviously, you are humble, but I'm sure there was a lot more involved than that it just happened to work out. I'm sure you worked it, smart and hard.
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Old 06-10-2010, 05:51 PM   #42
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Q. Is it possible to successfully bet horses for a living?
A. Yes.

Q. Is it easy?
A. Without question: No.

Q. Do you first have to be at a certain place in life?
A. Without question: Yes.

Patrick, there has been some absolutely phenomenal advice presented in this thread to this point - provided you are paying attention.


Betting horses with money that is (immediately) needed for things like food and a roof over your head is just asking for the worst kind of disaster.

IMHO, at a minimum, to make a successful go if it - you should have enough money set aside to cover:

a. 6-12 months living expenses

b. A Playing Bankroll

c. 3-4 months living expenses as a safely net in case things don't work out.

Why is this so important? Psychologically, it takes the pressure off - which translates to better decisions during live play.

In addition to money for bankroll, living expenses, and a safety net - you need the right belief system and work ethic. You need to KNOW deep down in your core that not only are you good enough to do this (but that perhaps you are without question one of the best players on the planet too.)

Don't laugh. Betting horses is not all that different from other areas of life where others see success in terms of borderline impossible. I once saw Jim Carey say during an interview that before he made it as an actor, when he first came to Hollywood, he hiked up the hill and sat at the base of the Hollywood sign... He made out a check to himself in the amount of $5 million - and promised himself that no matter what it took he was going to make it - and be able to cash that check some day.

Not only do you have to believe, but you need the right work ethic. Make no mistake: Betting on horses is COMPETITION. You have to be willing to out innovate and out work your competition.

I guarantee you your competition is formidable and constantly innovating and striving to improve their collective games. Unless you are willing to outwork them you WILL be left behind.


Then, there's the requisite skill set.

Speaking from years of my own experience, from playing, from teaching, and from just having conversations with other players... I think most players see "handicapping" as the most important skill among those that I am about to name.

That said, I am of the opinion that the exact opposite is true - that the requisite skill set extends FAR beyond "handicapping"... and that "handicapping" is probably the least important of the required skills the successful player must cultivate.

Here in general outline form are the requisite skills any professional player should have:

1. Horse Selection/Handicapping Methodologies

2. Play or Pass Decision Making

3. Ticket Structure/Backing An Opinion

4. Bet Sizing

5. Carrying an Edge into the Long Run

6. Discipline

7. The ability to GROW a bankroll


Patrick, there is some absolutely phenomenal advice being presented in this thread - provided you are paying attention.


-jp

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Old 06-10-2010, 06:14 PM   #43
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An upcoming column of mine at American Turf Monthly:

Going Pro

After a big day at the track, who among us hasn't wondered the following:

"I made more money today than I make in one week on my job, a job that I hate. Wouldn't it be great to quit and just bet full-time?"

Maybe for you it's just been a fleeting thought, or maybe you've considered it seriously. Before taking this any farther, which we'll do a few paragraphs from now, let's consider whether for you it's any kind of option.

Be brutally honest. How long have you been playing, and how much money have you made? If you don't have records, its probably safe to assume the answers are awhile, and zero. If you do have records, what do they tell you? If you haven't already made a bunch of money, over some long period (not just the last three months, and not based on two big superfecta signers), it's unlikely you'll have any success turning pro. Most players go through peaks and valleys, and the valleys last longer due to the 20% takeout. A recent peak is no reason to believe the valleys have ended.

If your winning years are based on very few plays--e.g., you made only 526 bets last year--it's quite possible that you wound up on the right side of the Bell curve strictly due to luck (which is far less likely if you've made 10,000 bets). And if the difference between a winning and losing year happened to be one giant Pick 6 score or a tournament win, it's hard to make a case for turning pro.

If your good years are the results of paper "mind" bets--not real bets--you're not ready to make the switch. When the pressure of actual money is involved, people do all kinds of things they don't do when no money is involved. You don't know if you're going to make good decisions after a series of losses unless you've actually done it.

But let's put a good face on this and say that for the last three years, you've made thousands of bets each year and have made money every year. Before you plunge into full-time gambling, you'll need to review your finances--both what you have available, and what you'll need for expenses. Let's be kind, and probably unrealistic, and say you have a 5% edge on your bets, and you manage to find playable bets in eight races per day. If you bet only $100 per race, and you maintain your edge throughout the year, you'll make a measly $40 a day, which barely covers your travel expenses, admission, food, Form, and program. You've got to raise your edge (good luck with that one), find more races to play (possible if you have a terrific computer program which can scan races outside of your backyard), or raise your bet sizes. To make $200 a day with that 5% edge and the same eight races a day, you'd need to bet $500 a race. And unless you have at least a $25,000 starting bankroll, your risk of bankruptcy is unacceptably high. And are you going to be able to make good decisions at this level of betting, or will some very unpleasant photos cause you to go on tilt?

At that level of action, though, you may qualify for rebates, and this is where things get interesting. If you maintain a 5% betting edge and earn a 7% rebate, you're now making 12% on each bet, on average--so if you're still betting that $4,000 a day, you're earning $500 a day. The bad news is that even the biggest betting syndicates are thrilled to break even (they make their money on rebates), and breaking even isn't so easy after all. Lose just 4%--which puts you ahead of almost everybody at the track--and even with a rebate you won't be earning very much.

If you've got a working spouse who brings in real money (and who doesn't care that you've announced that you're now a full-time gambler), or you're sitting on a mountain of money from your recently sold shoe manufacturing business, the transition to full-time gambling will be easier because you've got a safety net. Most of us, though, don't have such a net--so whatever you make gambling is what you're going to have to live on. And what about those nice perks you used to get at work--a medical plan, 401k contributions, company-paid life insurance? Consider them gone, or funded by your gambling winnings.

What happens if your full-time gambling plan doesn't go as well as you had hoped? For instance, you lose. After a two-year shot at gambling, will you be able to get back into your regular profession, at the same level, or has time passed you by (e.g., for a medical researcher, two years is a lifetime).

What are your friends and relatives going to say when they've found you've abandoned your previous career for gambling? Probably, they'll think you're well on your way to bankruptcy, and isn't it sad about his poor, suffering wife?

If you're young and have no wife or kids, it's easier (think of all the young online poker pros), particularly if you're living in your mom's basement. But now the problem is social. Do you think you'll find the love of your life at the racetrack? Or the connections that are so necessary to succeed in the business world? And if you do meet new people, how are they going to perceive you if you tell them you're a full-time racetrack degenerate?

For some, full-time professional gambling is a fantasy--you go to the racetrack every day, or you work from home on your own schedule with nobody ever telling you what to do. No demanding boss, no time-wasting co-workers, no angry clients. But for just about everybody, it should stay a fantasy.
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Old 06-10-2010, 06:54 PM   #44
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Patrick, some of the most knowledgable handicappers have given you sincere, honest answers to your questions. If you are sincere and honest with yourself you will follow their advice to the letter.

We all wish you well with God's Blessings. But, follow their instructions. If you find any doubt about being able to do it, find another vocation.
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Old 06-10-2010, 07:25 PM   #45
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Wow Patrick you must have touched on something here. A rare response from both Barry Meadow and Ernie Dahlman! Gentleman please don't be such strangers here!

If I may humbly add my two cents. By some of your posts I get the impression that you think there are others all around you and on this board who are doing what you want to and that maybe you feel a little "less than" because maybe you can't. I don't know if you can or you can't but I would suggest most people "aren't" so don't feel bad if you can't. (Does that make sense?) You're just like the rest of us my friend. Keep trying and good luck!!
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