Creating a track profile is easy. You don’t need to go back two years or three years. All you need to do is get enough data for the last 20 races consisting of first call position-first call beaten lengths, second call position, second call beaten lengths. Either %E or %MED or both. That’s your starting point and you can build from there.
eg. GP 1 mile turf. You need late energy (49%) but should be within 2.5 lengths at both calls. Every once in a while you’ll get an outlier but aside from that it won’t change.
You can keep a profile for each track condition too. Sometimes it matters, sometimes not.
But more importantly KNOW THY TRACKS. Know how they play.
I can step into a meet when it opens because I know how the track plays. For example when OP opens , I don’t need to wait to see how the track plays- I know. OP is a sustained track period. Deep closers win there especially at 6f, whereas at KEE if you’re not within 4 lengths at any distance then you’re in trouble. And sometimes even less. Good jockeys know how to position their horses at each track if they ride on a regular basis.
And tracks don’t change unless they resurface the whole track. OP hasn’t changed for at least 40-45 years. Track runs the same every year even when it’s weather changes.
As far as the pace of the race sets up it’s like this. It has to be an extreme case and even then the track follows the profile. Yesterday at GP7 even though the 6 looked like the only speed, horses energy was too early for the way that distance -surface plays. (late energy).
Hope this helps.
