Saratoga: Saturday, August 12

[Teach]

Race One:
SCARLY CHARLY – almost by default – is my pick in the Spa opener. This 8 year-old gelding has the kind of back-class that merits attention. Yet, quite candidly, there are concerns: (1) He was beaten by weaker in his last at AP. (2) He’s been away from the races for nearly two months. (3) He hasn’t won in a month of Sundays. (4) He appears to want to go longer. Yet, having said all that, I still feel – at his best – he can prevail. The gelding’s trainer, Larry Rivelli (“Where winning is a way of life”), is a solid conditioner. In this gelding’s most recent morning-work, he scorched four panels in a “bulleted” :47.1, breezing. He would move up on a wet track. Luis Saez is in the irons. Others: , ,

Race Two:
BASE COMMAND is my selection in this MSW 7-furlongs “sprint”. I like the fact that this highly-priced Tiznow-bred 2 year-old was closing like Silky Sullivan in his only race, a 5 and ½ panels sprint (he simply ran out of real estate). To embellish: I believe the added distance of ground in today’s race should do wonders for this Mark Hennig trainee’s chances of gracing the winner’s circle. Frankly, I become even more enamored when I see that a recent “Oklahoma” (Saratoga training track) work for four panels went in a blistering “bulleted” :47.3, breezing. Others: , , .

Race Three:
DR. EDGAR is my choice in this turf route. This Carl Domino-trained 4 year-old chestnut gelding narrowly missed in his last, a turf sprint, downstate at Belmont in late June. In that one, this Lookin at Lucky-bred ran into more traffic than one might expect at rush-hour on the Long Island Expressway. Well, this gelding now stretches out. I believe that enhances this 4 year-old’s chances of getting his picture taken. Manny Franco – he’s beginning to find his upstate "mojo" – is in the irons. Others: , ,

Race Four:
It’s the Grade II 200k Adirondack for 2 year-old fillies. I’m going with: SOUTHAMPTON WAY. In her last, this Into Mischief-bred bay broke her maiden by inching away from the field to prevail in an MSW 5 and ½ panels Spa sprint (she now moves up to face winners). Yet, I believe this Harlan’s Holiday-bred will appreciate today’s added panel. The most capable Ricardo Santana, Jr. has his feet in the stirrups for trainer Hector DePaz. DePaz does very well when conditioning 2 year-olds. I conclude by mentioning that this filly has strung together an impressive array of recent morning works. Others: , , .

Race Five:
McILROY is my longshot pick in this turf route. Let’s face it, this Modigliani-bred 7 year-old turfster has acquitted himself quite admirably in this 25k claiming company. This bay gelding should appreciate the added distance of ground that today’s race affords. The gelding’s trainer, Rudy Rodriguez, does very well with horses making their second start off a layoff. Paco Lopez is in the irons for a gelding who’s hit the tote in 2/3rds of his lifetime turf starts. Others: , , .

Race Six:
SPORTSWEAR is a regally bred-for-the-turf first-time starter from the Chad Brown barn. This GB-bred should take to the grass like a duck takes to water. There’s a long line of turf stars on both sides of his family. “Machanicsville Chad” does a very good job with first-time turf starters. The colt’s pilot is the veteran, Javier Castellano. A solid recent work bolsters confidence. Others: , , .

Race Seven:
COLTANDMISSISSIPPI is my choice in the MSW 7-furlongs “sprint”. This highly-priced well-bred (American Pharoah lineage) 2 year-old has as solid a chance as any of winning at first asking. The Hall of Famer, Johnny V., is this colt’s pilot; his trainer is Todd Pletcher. Pletcher does very well with horses entered in MSW races. A consistent array of solid morning works bodes well for this colt’s chances of having his picture taken. My only caveat: The dam, Selva, produced no winners from two starters. Finally, I believe this colt would move up on a wet track. Others: , , .

Race Eight:
The Irish-bred, OFF LIMITS, gets my nod in this OC turf route. Let me state, up front ,that although I like this mare’s chances, I’m always apprehensive about horses starting from outside posts in turf routes. How the horse is positioned coming out of that first turn is critical as far as his/her chances of winning are concerned. Having got that off my chest, I still like this 5 year-old chestnut mare’s chances. First, the connections are solid: John Velazquez and Chad Brown. Secondly, this mare seems to be close-up near the wire in all her races. The mare is dropping in caliber here off a second-by-a-neck finish downstate at Belmont over five weeks ago. Others: , , .

Race Nine:
Trainer Larry Rivelli brings in another “shipper". This time in the person – or should I say the equine – of LEWY'S VAPORIZER. Make no mistake, this 5 year-old gelding is a "speed-ball". If he can get the drop on this field, he will be tough to reel in. Much will depend on how well this gelding gets out of the gate. I should mention that the gelding disappointed as an even-money shot in his last at Indiana. I should also mention that his trainer, the aforementioned Rivelli, does very well with horses that were beaten favorites. A recent, sharp “bullet” work signals readiness. Robby Albarado is in the irons. Others: , , .

Race Ten:
It’s time for today’s feature race, the Grade I Fourstardave, to be contested over the distance of one mile on the Inner Turf for a purse of a half-a-million dollars. I’m going for value with a morning-line medium longshot that I believe has a solid chance of gracing Saratoga’s winner’s circle. I’m talking about SASSY LITTLE LILA. This 4 year-old Artie Schiller-bred filly narrowly missed in a Grade I turf race on Belmont Stakes day. The filly’s pilot, Luis Saez, is a solid gate-jock who, if he can make the lead, can effectively ration out this filly’s speed. My choice here is predicated on that happening. Brad Cox is filly's conditioner; hedoes exceptionally well both with horses that have been away from the races and those making turf starts. Others: , , .

Race Eleven:
In today’s finale, a maiden-claiming turf-sprint for New York state-breds, my pick: MR CAT. This Courageous Cat-bred bay colt should be coming off the tail-gate as the horses push down the front straight. Can he get up in time? I believe – although I think he’d preferred to go longer – that he can. This colt’s trainer, Linda Rice, does very well both with horses who have been on the shelf and those who are making maiden-claiming starts. A sharp recent work bodes well for this colt’s chances. Jose Lezcano – he does very well on the green – is this colt’s pilot. Others: , , .

[Redboard]

R1: Sammy wonder Stone 15-1
Longest shot in the field owns the best last-out beyer but is coming off a 3-month layoff, which accounts for his ML odds (although the MLs for the race are pretty screwed up). Has hit the board in his last six outings, with three wins. Trainer is good off the claim (30%).

R2: Get The Facts 6-1
2nd-time starter showed some moxie in his 1st outing- a 5th place effort. I’ve seen worse debuts come back and win by daylight. Tapit colt will need to have a better start this time.

R3: Space Mountain 4-1
Weird race where virtually everyone is stretching out except for this 4-year-old gelding with JJ aboard. All of the other value plays have major chinks in their armor.

R4: Stainless Steel 8-1
When one of the Todd Pletcher entries ( ) is over bet, why not take the other? But really Stainless is the only one not jumping up in class here; all the others are coming off maiden wins or really bad efforts. Although will be hard to beat.

R5: Sunset District 20-1
Deep closer will need some help upfront; he owns the highest Timeform late pace figure, which helped me a couple weeks ago when Hunter ORiley won at 15-1. (thanks CJ)

R6: Machtree 6-1
One of those MSWs where the super trainers seem to dominate (Pletcher & Brown), I’d be surprised if they didn’t win the next two races. But I’m taking this high-priced 2006 Keenland purchase who had some nice workouts last month.

R7: Wyatt Town 9-2
Another MSW. This 2nd time starter had a nightmare trip in his first outing, yet still managed to hold on for third.

R8: Promotional 8-1
Good price on this 5-yr-old mare who’s dropping in class and won at similar conditions a year ago at same course.

R9: Cerro 6-1
7-yr-old gelding won his last two. Has Johnny V aboard.

R10: Sassy Little Lila 6-1
Who says bettors don’t like small fields? This six horse race has that many contenders. This filly has fared no worse that second in her last seven starts. Will be on the lead and very hard to catch. Get your popcorn ready.

R11: The Pooch 10-1
Winning this lowest-level state-bred maiden claiming race shouldn’t be that hard. Showed some giddy-up in his first four starts.



All W/P bets.

[Teach]

Hi Everbody,

Good afternoon and best of luck today. As I look over the first-race post parade, I still like my top pick: . I believe "the sleeper" here could be the . I've downgraded my thoughts on . I just didn't like the way he was prancing out on the racetrack, something about his left-hind foot. Again, best of luck!

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by Teach

Hi Everbody,

Good afternoon and best of luck today. As I look over the first-race post parade, I still like my top pick: . I believe "the sleeper" here could be the . I've downgraded my thoughts on . I just didn't like the way he was prancing out on the racetrack, something about his left-hind foot. Again, best of luck!

The winner scared me off with the short layoff and bad trainer. That's racing. 10 to go!

[Teach]

I still like ; yet intrigues me.

[Redboard]

R1: Sammy wonder Stone 15-1 ----- last
R2: Get The Facts 6-1 ----- 7th
R3: Space Mountain 4-1 ----- Place $3.70
R4: Stainless Steel 8-1 ----- 4th
R5: Sunset District 20-1 ----- 7th
R6: Machtree 6-1 ----- won $21.80 $12.40
R7: Wyatt Town 9-2 ----- 3rd
R8: Promotional 8-1 ----- 3rd
R9: Cerro 6-1 ----- 4th
R10: Sassy Little Lila 6-1 ----- 6th
R11: The Pooch 10-1 ----- Won $13.00 $5.30

Total Bet: $44.00
Return: $56.20
Profit: $12.20