Saratoga: Saturday, August 19

[Teach]

Race One:
I glimmed the replay of SOUTHSIDE WARRIOR’S last race (He finished -- with energy -- a closing 3rd, despite being fanned out, to a gate-to-wire winner, Glorious Empire, on the first Saturday of the Spa meet). I believe now, with both a smaller field and with a class drop, this gelding becomes a contender. Javier Castellano reprises the ride for trainer Mark Casse. Others: 5, 3, 2

Race Two:
DISCOVERED is my medium-longshot selection in this turf route. First, I like the fact that this highly-priced Gemologist-bred 2 year-old chestnut colt has a race under his belt – a 50k MSW at GP about one month ago; he finished second in that one against weaker. Second, the horse’s jockey, Jose Lezcano, has a good win-percentage when riding in turf races. Third, the colt’s trainer, Mark Casse, has a solid record with horses making their second career start. Others: 6, 7, 10.

Race Three:
HEXAMETER gets my nod in this allowance sprint. I should state, at the outset, that one of my “pet” angles in my handicapping analyses is when horses are going: “turf-to-dirt”. This Afleet-bred 3 year-old filly is doing just that (Her trainer, John Terranova, does reasonably well in that category). I also like the fact that Ricardo Santana, Jr. is reprising the ride; he has a solid record in sprint races. I should mention that any residual moisture will further enhance this filly’s chances of gracing the winner’s circle. Others: 2, 3, 7.

Race Four:
In this OC turf route, I’m picking MANITOULIN. This 4 year-old chestnut gelding was 4th, a length and one-quarter off the winner, in his most recent race, the Grade III Arlington Handicap. Prior to that, this gelding won two-straight, one at Belmont, the other at Keeneland. The most capable, Florent Geroux, is in the irons for trainer Jim Toner. Others: 2, 4, 8.

Race Five:
In this MSW sprint, I’m picking a M/L 10-1 shot, BOURBON CURRENCY. At first blush, this Speightstown-bred colt showed little in his first pari-mutuel start; she finished 4th in a similar race on the Spa’s opening Saturday. Yet, in looking at the replay, this colt was pinned down inside on the backstretch. Rajiv Maragh then angled her to the outside as the field reached the far turn. She was splitting horses at the top of the stretch (he appeared to be looming); yet he ended up finishing the aforementioned 4th down on the inside. I would have to label this first effort: a meandering one. In my opinion, much energy was expended, with little to show. With a better trip… With that one under his belt… Well, Rajiv reprises the ride for trainer John Kimmel (He does reasonably well with MSW races). Others: 8, 7, 6.

Race Six:
In this 9-panels allowance, n1x, my choice is CURLINS VOW. This is another one of my looking-for-value selections. This Curlin-bred catches my attention because I believe that in this one mile and one-eighth race, you need to pay close attention to horses that can, as they say, “get the distance”. Well, this 4 year-old, in my opinion, can “get the distance”. In his last race at Kentucky’s Ellis Park, he finished a closing second, at a mile, against weaker company. The hot-as-a-petardo, Robby Albarado, is in the irons, for trainer Mike Tomlinson. One caveat: I see no published works leading up to this race. Others: 2, 4, 8.

Race Seven:
In this one-mile turf race, n1x, I’m picking the Scat Daddy-bred 4 year-old filly, GIADA VEGAS. Admittedly, this Johannesburg-bred has gone off as the favorite in his last two…and failed. In yes, she was beaten by weaker at CD about two months ago. Well, she’s been freshened up for her Spa effort. Her trainer, Mark Casse, does very well with horses who were beaten favorites. I should also mention that she had a sharp “Oklahoma” work about one week ago. Personally, I believe this filly is coming up to a big number. One of the leading turf-riders, Florent Geroux, has his feet in the stirrups. Others: 3, 4, 6.

Race Eight:
It’s the 9-panels, Grade II Lake Placid on the turf for 3 year-old fillies. I’m picking LA CORONEL. In her most recent race, this Colonel-bred filly jetted across “The Pond” and landed in Jolly Ol’ England only to finish 5th in the Grade I Coronation at Ascot. Prior to that she strung together two straight wins in Grade III races in Kentucky. Admittedly, her most capable trainer, Mark Casse, hasn’t - quite uncharacteristically - done much, heretofore, in this summer’s Spa meet; yet, this could be his “red-letter” day. The filly’s jockey is Florent Geroux. Others: 4, 2, 6

Race Nine:
It’s now time for one of the premier races of Saratoga’s summer meet, the Grade I Alabama. It is a race that is contested over the distance of one mile and one-quarter by 3 year-old fillies for a purse of $600,000. In this prestigious race, I’m picking UNCHAINED MELODY. This Smart Strike-bred filly has, to this point in career won three races and finished second once in four pari-mutuel tries. Her most recent win came at Belmont over a month and a half ago in the Grade II Mother Goose. I believe there’s a lot going for this filly; yet I have one gnawing doubt. First, the positive: This filly should be the controlling speed. She should be out and going when the gates unlatch. However, as cited earlier, does she have the endurance to handle the grueling ten panels (I can say that for all the others, too)? Her jockey is the most capable Joel Rosario. He has an excellent record when competing in route races. The filly’s trainer, Brian Lynch, does very well both with horses entered in graded stakes and those that were winners of their last race. Others: 2, 4, 6.

Race Ten:
In the finale, a MSW at one mile on The Inner, my choice is: SPEIGHGAL. This Speightstown-bred chestnut filly was closing in a 7-panels turf race at Belmont about two months ago. The one-panel stretch should help this filly’s chances of getting her picture taken. The filly’s trainer, Barclay Tagg, does well with horses making their second career start. Angel Arroyo reprises the ride. Oh, one final point, don’t expect anything resembling the 50-1 odds that this filly went off at in her last race. Others: 5, 1A, 10

[Redboard]

No statebreds today 


Teach and I agree on three races today, including the first two.

All bets W/P unless otherwise noted.

R1: Southside Warrior 6-1
JJ’s aboard this 4-yr-old colt who ‘s fired pretty well third-off-a-layoff, in the past. Got up and hit the board on opening weekend at similar conditions.
This race is now on the dirt; he might be the betting favorite based upon his good effort at Belmont three back.

R2: Discovered 6-1
Faded in the stretch on his first try at GP last month. One of only three who has a race under his belt, and the only one on grass around two turns.
Another race moved to the main track, but not many scratches???

R3: Paluxy Princess 8-1
After bombing in her first four races, Ghostzapper filly has done well since moving to Martin’s barn. Should be sitting just off the pace.

R4: Doctor Mounty 15-1
No way Shug should be 15-1 at the SPA with an Ortiz brother onboard. The only speed horse in the race, except for the , who he’ll be able to track from the outside. May tire in the stretch but you’ll certainly get your money’s worth.

R5: Bourbon Courtesy 10-1
One of only two 2nd-time-starters in this race. First effort was decent enough, getting up for 4th on opening weekend.

R6: Battle Midway 6-1 (Win only)
Deep closer will need some help upfront but this 5-yr-old warhorse just doesn’t quit. Of his 12 lifetime races, has hit the board in eight with four wins.

R6: Hookup 12-1 (Win only)
Can’t resist the price on the 3-Yr-Old colt who’s taking a huge class drop and is well-rested.

R7: Chastise 12-1
Johnny V’s back on board for Todd Pletcher who’s 33% off a long rest. Nuff said.

R8: Party Boat 4-1
Another closer who can take a lickin and keep on tickin with in-the-money finishes in eight of her last 10. The extra ½ furlong should help.

R9: Lockdown 5-1
Has hit the board in all six of her lifetime races including a game third in the Ky Oaks. Has been working lights out the last month.

R10: Misercordia 15-1
Sentimental pick here. My mother learned to become a nurse at this hospital in Philadelphia.

[Teach]

Now that Race One is off the turf and is being run on the main at one mile and 1/8th; well, that changes everything. I'm now leaning toward RIVER DATE. This Pioneerof the Nile's-bred pilot is Luis Saez. Saez is very good at rating horses. He should put this 5 year-old gelding on the engine and then try to ration out his speed. If all goes well, this Empire Maker-bred gelding should prevail. Others: 1, 8, 7.

I'll have my Race Two thoughts, shortly.

[Teach]

Now that Race Two has been taken off the turf and is being on the main at seven panels, I'm leaning toward the outside horse, HONORABLE TREASURE. Personally, I disregarded this highly-priced 2 year-old bay colt when I initially believed that this grass would be run on the grass. However, now, at seven furlongs on the main, I give this To Honor and Serve-bred a decent chance of getting his picture taken. This Bernardini-bred is conditioned by the very respected trainer, Ken McPeek. McPeek does very well with horses making their second career start. This colt also gets Lasix for the first time. About a week ago, this colt turned in a solid 4-panels work. Robby Albardo is in the irons. Others: , ,

[Teach]

is still my top pick. Yet, Black Sea looks very good on the racetrack.

[Teach]

Avery Island is making a nice impression on the racetrack.

[Teach]

Personally, I believe the is being over-bet here. Yes, he ran in the Belmont Stakes; yet he faded badly. If the Saratoga surface were wet, I'd be wagering serious money on his nose. No, it wouldn't surprise me if he won; yet I feel he's vulnerable.

[Redboard]

R1: Southside Warrior 6-1 ------ > Won $6.90 $3.40

R2: Discovered 6-1 ------ > 6th

R3 : 3: Paluxy Princess 8-1 ------- > last

R4: Doctor Mounty 15-1 ------ > last

R5: Bourbon Courtesy 10-1 ------ > 6th

R6: Battle Midway 6-1 (Win only) ------ > 3rd

R6: Hookup 12-1 (Win only) ------ > 6th

R7: Chastise 12-1 ----- > Won $44.20 $17.40

R8: Party Boat 4-1 ----- > 3rd

R9: Lockdown 5-1 ----- > 6th

R10: Misercordia 15-1 ----- > 7th

Bet: $40
Return: $71.90
Profit: $31.90