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Old 08-17-2017, 08:12 AM   #1
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Saratoga: Thursday, August 17

Good morning.

As they used to say here in Beantown: "And this is good old Boston. The home of the bean and the cod. Where the Lowells talk only to Cabots, And the Cabots talk only to God."

Yes, our BoSox keep finding ways to win. "Mookie, Mookie..." Actually Markus. But the Yankees are keeping pace against the hapless Mets.

Here's my look at "the Spa's" first race. The four horses I use the saddle-cloth number with are the ones that I believe are "contendahs". As always, Good Luck. And as the legendary Harvey Pack would say: "May the horse be with you!" I'll be back later.

Race One:

1 Recent claim. Failed as chalk against weaker. Short rest.

Lunged at start against tougher. Disappointed as fave. Amends?

3 Won two-straight against weaker. Class-hike test.

Threw in a clunker aga. weaker. If she stays near M/L odds… Manny.

Nailed at the wire. Worthy of consideration. Beaten fave.

6 State-bred tries open company. May be over-bet. Could. Yet, I have concerns

Fanned out at Prx (apprentice). Has faced better. Low % trainer. Yet, could surprise...at a price.
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Old 08-17-2017, 10:04 AM   #2
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Race Two:

1/1A Neither horse looks like anything to write home about. If I had my druthers, the 1A.

2 Hard to recommend. Hasn't hit board in five tries on lawn. Low % jockey/trainer

3 Winless in 34 tries. To complete an exotic. Possibly?

4 Has shown little in this company.

Stretching out. Blinkers off. Might just get part.

6 Not much turf pedigree. Hard to recommend.

Has finished third twice at this distance in this company in recent races. In this weak field, anything's possible.

Blinkers off. Turf to dirt. Weaver and Franco. As good a shot as any to be right there at wire.

9 Little to recommend.

Speightstown-bred gelding will need to get into flow early fropm outside post. Cannot be "hung out to dry". Top pick in this weak field. Johnny V. for Wesley Ward.
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Walt (Teach)

"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.

"The important thing is what I think of myself."
"David and Lisa" (1962)












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Old 08-17-2017, 10:20 AM   #3
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Race Three:

Won last at Churchill. Has been away over 2 months. Possible?

2 Moves up in class. I would be surprised.

Looks like "the horse". Yet, can he get that last 'tenth? I personally wouldn't bet the house. However, Johnny V. and Todd Pletcher are a solid combo.

Bobbled at start in last. Nailed at the wire. Yet beat the #3 in that race. A distinct chance with clean trip.

5 I wouldn't completely overlook. "Shug" and Javier. Yet has failed to hit the board in 9-panel races in two tries.

Capable of hitting the board. I like Manny in routes. On his best, he's there for a part.
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Walt (Teach)

"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.

"The important thing is what I think of myself."
"David and Lisa" (1962)












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Old 08-17-2017, 10:37 AM   #4
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Race Four:

1 The connections don't impress me, but the turf pedigree is there. Second in last in this company. I can't overlook, especially if this filly gets out quickly from rail.

Solid turf pedigree. Slight cut-back. I can't ignore.

3 Won last; yet I don't envision a repeat.

4 It's possible she can get part; yet I don't see her as a contender.

She appears to want to go longer. Part? David Donk and Manny Franco always catch my attention.

This filly can certainly be part; it don't see her as a win candidate.

7 Would be a total surprise.

8 Back in a sprint; can't rule out.

Finally draws outside but looks to want to go longer. I'm leaning more toward a part than picture-taking.

10. Another horse that could be a contender but wants to go longer.

If she draws in, I wouldn't dismiss.
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Walt (Teach)

"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.

"The important thing is what I think of myself."
"David and Lisa" (1962)












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Old 08-17-2017, 10:52 AM   #5
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Race Five:

Heavily bet in debut; finished 3rd. Not enamored with rail starting post. Yet, wouldn't be surprised if this colt won.

2 Was not impressive in debut, yet that was on wet track.

First-time starter for capable trainer; yet he doesn't do particularly well with horses making their debut.

4 Sharp morning work but would be complete surprise.

Second-time Lasix; this colt's chances may improve. Can't overlook.

6 Would be a surprise; yet trainer does reasonably well with horses entered in MSWs.

8 Very little to recommend.

9 Unimpressed with debut, albeit on a wet track. Low% connections.

Impressive morning work; prolific broodmare. I'm going to take a look on track and on tote.
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Walt (Teach)

"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.

"The important thing is what I think of myself."
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Old 08-17-2017, 11:07 AM   #6
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Race Six:

I believe the colt wants to go longer and prefers a wet track; yet, I can't completely rule out.

Has early speed (will a speed duel develop?). Trainer is Javier's younger brother. Must be considered, even off layoff.

Merits consideration for solid jock and trainer.

4 Moves up off last win; yet hasn't raced in 7 months. Yet can't ignore.

Turf to dirt intrigues; yet would surprise if he gets his picture taken. Part?

6 Appears overmatched here.

8 Another horse that appears overmatched. Only one win in 15 tries.
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Walt (Teach)

"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.

"The important thing is what I think of myself."
"David and Lisa" (1962)












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Old 08-17-2017, 11:19 AM   #7
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Race Seven:

Chad Brown. Jose Ortiz. Little else need be said. I like this filly's chances.

Wouldn't completely surprise if she got part; but I find her hard to recommend.

3 Does not appear to be in the mix.

I'm questioning the distance for this filly. I don't see her as a win candidate. To get part?

5 I question the distance for this filly; yet, again, to complete an exotic is not out of the question.

Does not look like a candidate; however, to complete a super?

10 This filly will need to grab the lead and carry her speed. I do not see the scenario developing.
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Walt (Teach)

"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.

"The important thing is what I think of myself."
"David and Lisa" (1962)












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Old 08-17-2017, 11:30 AM   #8
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Race Eight:

Looks like the mare to beat. Should sit a stalking trip.

3 Appears to be rank outsider. Would move up on wet track.

4 This filly does not appear to fit; yet the jockey-trainer combo is solid.

Merits consideration; if nothing else, on her connections.

This mare intrigues me; she has loads of early speed. Joel Rosario is a money-jock for the very capable Jason Servis. I would not ignore.

7 A wet track is the only thing that I believe moves this filly up.

8 Does not appear to fit here.

Has done well against lesser; a wet track would help.

10 Low % trainer. Hard to recommend. To get part, not out of the question.
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Walt (Teach)

"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.

"The important thing is what I think of myself."
"David and Lisa" (1962)












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Old 08-17-2017, 11:41 AM   #9
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Race Nine:

1 Turf pedigree is marginal for trainer who does not do well with first-time starters.

May do something; but I believe her running style is hindered by inside post.

3 I find this filly hard to recommend.

4 Another filly who I have trouble recommending.

First-time blinkers. Rudy. Irad. A chance.

6 I just can't see this filly as a contender.

7 This filly has shown little in three dirt races.

Switches to turf where there is pedigree.

9 First-time starter who worked well in morning on lawn. I rate this filly as a possible.

10 Danny Gargan-trainee with turf breeding on top. Would not be a complete surprise.

Draws in. A much better starting post. I believe this filly can be a player.
__________________
Walt (Teach)

"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.

"The important thing is what I think of myself."
"David and Lisa" (1962)












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