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Old 04-14-2019, 04:49 AM   #766
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UPDATE: R#9- 1200M C3 (6F)T..… 4-12-1 W/ 3-5-9……..4:35 AM
12-3-9-5– Dutch Win 18% Profit Margin-Passed / $33.20 Quinella & $551.20 Triple Bx ($2,263.60 Quartet)/ ALL of that one!
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Old 04-14-2019, 05:06 AM   #767
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UPDATE: R#10- 1600M C3 (8F)T... 2-7-5 W/ 4-10-13 …..5:10 AM
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Old 04-14-2019, 05:25 AM   #768
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UPDATE: R#10- 1600M C3 (8F)T... 2-7-5 W/ 4-10-13 …..5:10 AM
13-4-14-10– Dutch Loss 161% Profit Margin/ $60.40 Quinella Bx
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Old 04-14-2019, 05:41 AM   #769
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UPDATE: R#11- 1400M C2 (7F)T... 4-3-2 W/ 14-11-12 …..5:45 AM
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Old 04-14-2019, 06:03 AM   #770
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UPDATE: R#11- 1400M C2 (7F)T... 4-3-2 W/ 14-11-12 …..5:45 AM
4-1-14-3– Dutch Win 15% Profit Margin-Passed/ No action on the LS Placer #1

It turned out to be a half way decent card. The limited number of playable Dutch Win bets produced a loss of -26% hitting only 2 of 6 races. On a positive note there were quite a few Verticals hit with some decent value including a number of Quinellas & Triples.
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Old 04-15-2019, 02:41 PM   #771
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Old 04-16-2019, 11:23 PM   #772
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. April 17, 2019… 64th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 74 Degrees Partly Cloudy 20% of rain Wind: ESE 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190417_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 8 Last Kingdom (5-2) Has had two hard races in a row and still can’t find the winner’s circle, trainer is hovering at a 5% win rate with a rider at 3%, playing that he comes up with an empty tank in the stretch.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 455 (Winners: 2nd & 5th, Second: 6th)
Race 1 Letsgofree (6-1)

Race 452 (Winners: 7th & 8th, Second: 2nd & 3rd)
Race 1 Kwaichung Brothers (27-1)

Race 490 (Winners: 8th & 9th, Second: 2nd)
Race 4 Shining On (10-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 Look Eras (7-5)
Race 8 Amazing Satchmo (9-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 5 Blitzing (7-2)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 5 Blitzing (7-2)

Distance specialists running tonight:
None

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 5 Ballistic King (5-2) In his first race in Hong Kong after a nice short career in New Zealand drew the 12 post which is usually a death nail at The Valley and it reflected it in his odds with him going off at 87-1. He broke on top but soon afterwards was taken back by 5 pound bug-boy Mo and doing so forced him four wide in the short turn, in the turn for home he was three wide and drifted out to the 8 path entering the stretch. He made up good ground while racing on his wrong lead step until 100 metres to go, where he finally switched over and re-broke only missing by a half a length to Zac Purton on the favourite Fat Turtle who had a perfect trip sitting right off the hip of the pace setter Loving A Boom who tired to a well beaten ninth.

Race 6 Hasta Luego (16-1) Was bet down to a 4-5 favourite in his debut last time out going 5 furlongs at Sha Tin, and ran like a first timer, all over the track. Now he was entered for 6 furlongs and added a hood for to hopefully fix his gate problem, unfortunately he drew the rail. He broke on top and Moreira placed him on the lead with company heading into the turn while racing on the rail, halfway thru the turn Bingo who was racing three wide took over the lead while Wong on Triumphant Lord was taken back while being the meat in the sandwich. At the top of the lane he pulled back even with Bingo but as soon as he did so, the big favourite first timer out of the Frankie Lor barn Everyone's Joy engaged them and pulled away without any encouragement from Purton, all while that was happening Moreira was wrapping up on Hasta Luego and never asked him to put in any kind of effort. He's not the prettiest looking runner but should improve after showing more speed than he did in his first try, he has the look of a Happy Valley runner.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
None

Key Plays:
Race 3 Waldorf (2-1)
Race 5 Ballistic King (5-2)
Race 7 Turin Redstar (6-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 Lucky Thought (11-1)
Race 4 Polymer Luck (12-1)
Race 6 Hasta Luego (16-1)
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Old Yesterday, 01:29 AM   #773
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Cool HONG KONG – HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 4/17/19

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 8 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) -
(1)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 7:15 AM WED EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1650M C5 (8.25F)T…2-7-3 W/ 4-10-8 …...7:15 AM


R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T…....6-1-3 W/ 12-2-11 ….7:45 AM


R#3–1200M C3 (6F)T….....5-7-2 W/ 2-9----- …...8:15 AM


R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T....7-2-11 W/ 8-4-5 …..8:45 AM


R#5- 1200M C3 (6F)T….....3-2-6 W/ 5-9----…..…9:15 AM


R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T…....1-7-3 W/ 6-10-11 …..9:45 AM


R#7– 1650M C2 (8.25F)T...4-6-1 W/ 10-7-11 ….10:15 AM


R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T..5-6-10 W/ 9-2-12 …...10:50 AM
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Old Yesterday, 05:44 AM   #774
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HK RACE 1

4 - 3 - 2 - 5 - 10 POSTED AT 545 AM

GOOD LUCK
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Old Yesterday, 09:14 PM   #775
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Quote:
R#1- 1650M C5 (8.25F)T…2-7-3 W/ 4-10-8 …...7:15 AM
10-7/12-3– Dutch Loss 176% Margin/ $77.60 Quinella

Quote:
R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T…...6-1-3 W/ 12-2-11 ….…7:45 AM
8-1-7-3– Dutch Loss 13% Margin - Passed/

Quote:
R#3–1200M C3 (6F)T…...5-7-2 W/ 1-9----- …...8:15 AM
2-4-6-5– Dutch Win 51% Margin/

Quote:
R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T....7-2-11 W/ 8-4-5 …..8:45 AM
9-5-1-4– Dutch Loss 45% Margin - Passed/
Quote:
R#5- 1200M C3 (6F)T….....3-2-6 W/ 5-9----…..…9:15 AM
5-3-8-1– Dutch Loss 88% Margin/ $34.10 Quinella

Quote:
R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T…....1-7-3 W/ 6-10-11 …..9:45 AM
7-3-6-10– Dutch Win 52% Margin / $51.70 Quinella & $676.40 Triple / ALL of that one!

Quote:
R#7– 1650M C2 (8.25F)T...4-6-1 W/ 10-7-11 ….10:15 AM
7-6-2-11– Dutch Loss 59% Margin/ $38.70 Quinella

Quote:
R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T..5-6-9 W/ 2-12-7 - #10 Scr. …...10:50 AM
7-12-2-6– Dutch Loss 49% Margin-Passed/ $88.30 Quinella & $676.40 Triple / ALL of that one!

It turned out to be a half way decent card. The Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Loss margin of -38%, and happened from hitting only 2 of 5 playable races. However, the highlights of the day came from boxing and hitting 6 out 8 Quinellas that provided a nice 95% Profit margin.
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Old Yesterday, 11:36 PM   #776
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I followed along and did even better than that



All of that one !!!!


Keep up the amazing work
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