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Old 04-11-2019, 05:30 PM   #1
MichaelKnowRacing
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2019 Arkansas Derby 4/13

Here are (from anon) top-four horses in order. Post position in parenthesis.

(7) Galilean (10-1) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, he was third to Long Range Toddy and Improbable in one of the races at the Rebel Stakes. In that one, he was up there early, he had some speed, he just kind of softened up to run third. Hollendorfer is taking off the blinkers to get him to relax, he's got Flavien Prat riding him, and I like the price.

(1) Improbable (8-5) Improbable is probably the horse to beat. He's getting blinkers to focus a little bit because they thought he had the Rebel Stakes race won and Toddy came up from the inside and caught him. (Trainer) Bob Baffert does not like the rail post. He's going with a new jockey for this race (Jose Ortiz). He's a pretty good horse and he needs the points. He can win, it's between these two horses for me. But I like the 10-1 odds more than the 9-5.

(3) Omaha Beach (2-1) -- Baffert thinks the horse to beat is Omaha Beach. He's been watching him train in California and thinks the horse looks real good. He beat Baffert's Game Winner at the Rebel Stakes. (Trainer) Richard Mandella has never had a Derby winner, which is amazing with the career he's had. This horse was running on turf, they switched him to dirt and it's really worked. They're supposed to get rain, and Omaha Beach won on a wet track at Santa Anita. That might serve him well.

(8) Country House (12-1) Country House could be the closer, but I don't think he's good enough (to win). The Bill Mott-trained horse, he took second in the Risen Star Stakes, but got a little rank in the stretch. He came up empty because of that. He could be a surprise. I'd include him in a superfecta with the other 3.

EXOTICS

EXACTA BOX 1,3,7

SUPERFECTA BOX 1,3,7 with 1,3,7 with 1,3,7,8 WITH 1,3,7,8
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Old 04-11-2019, 06:10 PM   #2
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Nice analysis, good luck.
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Old 04-11-2019, 07:36 PM   #3
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Old 04-12-2019, 10:16 AM   #4
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Long Range Toddy is going to have it tough from the 11 hole
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Old 04-13-2019, 08:01 PM   #5
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3-1-8 Trifecta box!
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