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10-11-2019, 09:51 AM
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#1
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Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Tote board picks
Will be using tote analysis only today for Laurel. Not using pp's because I don't have them. Will focus on the 4 maidens, but will do a few others. Might miss R7-Msw due to time conflict. Later.
Note: Over the next week or two, I will attempt to do at least 20 of these plays to give an idea of its worth(or not).
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Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-11-2019 at 10:05 AM.
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10-11-2019, 09:59 AM
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#2
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Posts: 2,176
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Laurel-R1-Mcl 10K-7f-F&M 3Up
Race 1-Laurel-Tote analysis
No.---ML-----ML rank
6-1-----4/5
9-2------3
6-1-----4/5
3-1------2
10-1-----6
8-5------1
20-1-----7
Using a combo rank for 2 horses at 6-1 ML's. Normally usually l.r. odds to break ties. not that important overall. more explanation later.
NOTE: these aren't the picks, just the baseline I start with, more later closer to post time.
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10-11-2019, 10:04 AM
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#3
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R2-Lrl-baseline
R2-Lrl-5-1/2f-St. O.C. 25k
No.----ML------Rank
----5-1-------3
----6-1-------4/5/6
----8-1-------7
----5-2-------1
----6-1-------4/5/6
----3-1-------2
----6-1-------4/5/6
Kind of thing I see at with Laurel's ML fairly often, they lump several horses into one ML.
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Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-11-2019 at 10:08 AM.
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10-11-2019, 10:12 AM
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#4
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R3-Laurel-Maiden Clm
R3-Lrl-1M-Mcl-25K-3Up
No.----ML-----Rank
----2-1------1
----6-1------5
----5-2------2
----4-1------3
----10-1-----6
-----9-2-----4
Hoping we don't have a lot of scratches on some of these short fields.
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10-11-2019, 10:17 AM
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#5
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R4-Laurel
R4-Lrl-6f-AOC-50K-F&M
No.-----ML------Rank
-----3-1-------1
----12-1------7
-----6-1-------5/6
-----7-2-------2/3
-----9-2-------4
-----6-1-------5/6
-----7-2-------2/3
Again with same ML's problem-scratches will probably elim. some of them.
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10-11-2019, 10:35 AM
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#6
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Race 7 -Laurel-MSW
R7-2 y.o.-MSW-1M
No.-----ML-----Rank
-----15-1----9
-----8-1-----6/7
-----5-1------3
-----8-1-----6/7
-----6-1-----4/5
-----12-1-----8
------6-1-----4/5
------7-2------1
------30-1----10
-----9-2------2
Again with the multiple ML's. This is race, I might miss doing, or at last possible minute.
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10-11-2019, 10:44 AM
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#7
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R8--Lrl-MdClm-14K
R8-Lrl-5-1/2f-MdClm-F&M
No.-----ML-----Rank
-----20-1----8/9
-----10-1----5/6
------2-1-----1
-----15-1-----7
-----8-1------4
-----10-1----5/6
-----9-2------3
-----5-2------2
-----20-1----8/9
Last maiden at Lrl. Not sure I can still stream Laurel's feed live, it seems to be restricted at times.
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10-11-2019, 11:20 AM
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#8
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Correction, Race 10 Lrl.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
R10-Lrl-5-1/2f-MdClm-F&M
No.-----ML-----Rank
-----20-1----8/9
-----10-1----5/6
------2-1-----1
-----15-1-----7
-----8-1------4
-----10-1----5/6
-----9-2------3
-----5-2------2
-----20-1----8/9
Last maiden at Lrl. Not sure I can still stream Laurel's feed live, it seems to be restricted at times.
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Corrected to Race 10
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10-11-2019, 11:37 AM
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#9
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Race 9-Lrl-Mdclm-10K-7f
R9- Maiden Clm-I missed this one originally
No.------ML------Rank
------6-1------5/6
------9-2-------2
------5-1------3/4
-----10-1-------7
-----12-1------8/9
------5-1------3/4
------4-1-------1
------15-1-----10
------12-1-----8/9
----20-1-----11
-----6-1-----5/6
Not often you see the lowest ML at 4-1, Lots of 5's, 6's, and 12-1's again. So I'm thinking that ML person sees a chaos race, we'll see if tote is rapidly changing for favorite-ship.
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10-11-2019, 01:06 PM
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#10
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Join Date: Jan 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Race 1-Laurel-Tote analysis
No.---ML-----ML rank
6-1-----4/5
9-2------3
6-1-----4/5
3-1------2
10-1-----6
8-5------1
20-1-----7
Using a combo rank for 2 horses at 6-1 ML's. Normally usually l.r. odds to break ties. not that important overall. more explanation later.
NOTE: these aren't the picks, just the baseline I start with, more later closer to post time.
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What I'm seeing at this point, @5 mtp
+4 odds rank +33% EM$ drop.
had an 80% drop in early money, which is always dangerous, it wasn't bet across all pools, just for the win.
I'd lean more towards the and box it with and in exacta.
At 5-1, I'd probably make a win bet on for a saver
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Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-11-2019 at 01:11 PM.
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10-11-2019, 01:39 PM
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#11
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Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
R2-Lrl-5-1/2f-St. O.C. 25k
No.----ML------Rank
----5-1-------3
----6-1-------4/5/6
----8-1-------7
----5-2-------1
----6-1-------4/5/6
----3-1-------2
----6-1-------4/5/6
Kind of thing I see at with Laurel's ML fairly often, they lump several horses into one ML.
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Okay, Here's what I'm seeing @ 5 MTP
+6 odds rank, + 50% EM drop-
Huge 75% EM, and favorite
mild +2 odds rank
is key for W/P- and exacta box. I don't have a problem dutching tghe and for win
in Race 3 looks strong at this point.
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Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-11-2019 at 01:44 PM.
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10-11-2019, 02:08 PM
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#12
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Posts: 2,176
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R3
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
R3-Lrl-1M-Mcl-25K-3Up
No.----ML-----Rank
----2-1------1
----6-1------5
----5-2------2
----4-1------3
----10-1-----6
-----9-2-----4
Hoping we don't have a lot of scratches on some of these short fields.
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R2-I said at bottom of last race, that I liked the early in the betting.
+5 odds rank adv.+30% EM drop.
had a 80% EM$ and current favorite at 13 MTP
+3 odds rank adv.
May do a dutch W on & but is choice. On some short fields if the odds remain, I may do a / All box with extra boxes with favorite.
Prob. do a / exacta box
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Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-11-2019 at 02:20 PM.
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10-11-2019, 02:47 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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R4-Lrl
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
R4-Lrl-6f-AOC-50K-F&M
No.-----ML------Rank
-----3-1-------1
----12-1------7
-----6-1-------5/6
-----7-2-------2/3
-----9-2-------4
-----6-1-------5/6
-----7-2-------2/3
Again with same ML's problem-scratches will probably elim. some of them.
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I have 2 horses at +3 odds rank advantages & 1 horse +4.
+3/+4 adv. no EM$, but the no. 1 lowest DD odds-Win
+3 adv. and 58% EM drop-Win-dutch
+2/+3 adv. and mild EM at 16%
I'd play ex. box
May box the favorite with/ looks to be the
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Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-11-2019 at 02:53 PM.
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10-11-2019, 03:10 PM
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#14
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R5-Lrl
Didn't get a chance to review this before hand, but the My Queen Michelle, looks to be the favorite with even money early at 6-1 ML, and easily the lowest odds ranks in the doubles.
+3 or +5 odds rank adv, and 84% EM drop; since we again have three 6-1 ML's.
2nd choice @ +2/+4 rank adv.
Hopefully be back in time for R7- MSW.
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Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-11-2019 at 03:11 PM.
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10-11-2019, 03:54 PM
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#15
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R6-Lrl
+5/+6 Odds rank favorite and 60% EM$ WP and box with 2 favors. in exactas
$1 box with the rest
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Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-11-2019 at 03:58 PM.
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