The Preakness

[Teach]

I watched the Kentucky Derby replay several times. I’m not talkin’ about Maximum Security. I’m talking about Improbable, the Bob Baffert entrant.

In “The Derby,” this City Zip-bred 3-year old ran into more traffic than Boston’s Central Artery at rush-hour. For the most part, this A.P. Indy-bred found himself locked in behind “a wall of horses”. He was, as one might say, “In jail”. He was, in a manner of speaking, an NFL running back looking for “daylight,” but there was none to be found. As the DRF stated, he was “covered up”. Nuff Ced. You get the picture.

Fast forward to Saturday afternoon, May 18, 5:48 p.m., Pimlico Racecourse, north of downtown Baltimore (a fast track is predicted).

As I look over the field, it is shorter in number than the Derby; it is certainly less cumbersome. I must declare, in all candor, that it is not one of the most stellar assemblies in the annals of thoroughbred-racing’s “2nd Jewel” of The Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes.

Moreover, that leads me back to Improbable. This Carson City-bred colt, in my opinion, all things being equal, is “The Class”. Toss out his Derby performance (there were extenuating circumstances; it was not all that bad…under the circumstances). I see Improbable's Kentucky Derby race as an aberration. An anomaly. The track conditions, size of the field, etc.; they conspired against him.

Furthermore, I see a chance to make amends. “The Money-Man,” the “Hall-of-Famer” from Dexter, NM, Mike Smith, is in the irons. As they say, “There is no substitute for experience.” He has won the most Breeders’ Cup races than any jockey. He has won the Preakness Stakes twice, most recently, last year, aboard Triple Crown winner, Justify.

As for the race itself, I see this colt “sittin chilly” about 4th or 5th in the early stages of the races. Yet when the field reaches the far turn, Smith will urge his charge (Probable) to make his move…and he responds. He’s “pickin’ ‘em up and layin’ ‘em down.” At least, that’s the scenario, in my opinion.

You may, at this juncture, be asking: How does one bet this race? As you have ascertained from my comments, I see Improbable as “the key”. In exotics. I’m gonna “front-wheel” him and “back-wheel” him.

But who can you use with him? That is the question. Alwaysmining is a possible. This Kelly Rubley, the teacher-turned-trainer entrant, has won six straight at Laurel, but those were all non-graded stakes (Rubley is just 4% with horses entered in graded stakes). Oh, this Maryland-bred can be there; yet he’ll be tested for class.

Another more likely consideration is War of Will. But, frankly, in my opinion, I believe this Mark Casse-trainee hit his “high-water” mark in “The Derby”. Oh, I will likely use him “underneath”; yet, I have gnawing concerns that he may not be as competitive.

Others I’m considering are: Anothertwistoffate. I believe he may be coming up to a big effort off his two most recent 2nd-place finishes in the Grade III Lexington and Grade III Sun Derby. He turned in a solid recent 6-panels “bullet” work, handily. Owendale is another horse that catches my eye (at least his lines do). This Into Mischief-bred won the Grade III Lexington at Keeneland a little over a month ago. He recently turned in a “bullet” 5-panels work. Finally, Win Win Win, the Mke Trombetta trainee, had little chance in the large-field Derby. In my opinion, this is just the type of horse that can unleash a strong closing kick. It should be noted that there should be ample speed up front. If that speed ties up, this Hat Trick-bred colt could be passing horses, left and right.

In closing, as always, I wish everyone, the best of luck. In my opinion: Improbable is probable.