HONG KONG – SHA TIN - SUN – 3/10/24

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races to be run on Turf.
(Class-top to bottom)-(1)-Class-1, (1)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5,

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SUN EST
(I’ not sure what time we’re supposed to set the clocks ahead 1 hour)

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return.

For those of you that have the resources to bet more than $2 per race you might want to consider the following in terms of betting options:
1) Win Dutching 3 entries means betting each of the 3 entries so that no matter which one wins the return is the same. (Recommend waiting until 4 mins to post for final odds calculations).
2) For Quinellas there are many options:
a) Using all 3 of the top Keys with all the others = 12 bets
b) Boxing all 6 selections = 15 bets
3) Triples there also many options:
a) Using any Key in the top position w/All others = 20 bets
b) Using all 3 Keys in the top position w/All others = 60 bets
c) Using Top 4 selections in the top position w/All others = 80 bets
d) Boxing all 6 selections = 120 bets
(Warning: The odds of the selected entries @ 7 mins to post should determine playability by comparing the combined value of each group of 3 that may complete the triple with the amount to be bet).

Selections to follow:

Good Luck if you’re playing!
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[Nitro]

Preliminary Selections:

R#1- 1800M T5 (9F)T......……6-1-11 W/ 9-13-7….…12:00 AM

R#2- 1000M C4 (6F)T……...…5-4-2 W/ 1-10-3… ...12:30 AM

R#3- 1200M C3 (6F)T………….3-2-5 W/ 10-6-1…….…1:00 AM

R#4- 1400M C4 (7F)T………….5-1-2 W/ 4-6-9……..…1:30 AM

R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T……….…1-5-10 W/ 6-8-9 ………3:00 AM

R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T……..….7-12-2 W/ 3-4-10…….3:30 AM

R#7– 1400M C1 (7F)T…….....1-3-5 W/ 7-10-4……,..4:05 AM

R#8- 1000M C3 (5F)T……...….4-8-1 W/ 7-6-5……....4:40 AM

R#9- 1800M C2 (9F)T……….….3-5-10 W/ 2-7-12 …..5:15 AM

R#10- 1600M C3 (8F)T……….5-13-4 W/ 11-3-7 …...5:50 AM
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[Nitro]

RESULTS:

R#1- 11-6-5-14– Win & Quin

POS	#	Horse	       Win	Place	Show
1st:	11	Smart Beauty	$12.60		$3.80
2nd:	6	Colourful Baron		$3.90
3rd:	5	M M Nebula			$8.10
4th:	14	Joyful Champion			
•	$2.00 QUINELLA 6-11 $28.40
•	

R#2- 5-10-14-2– Win & Quin.

POS	#	Horse	       Win	Place	Show
1st:	5	Bowser	     $10.10		$3.60
2nd:	10	Lucky Symphony		$14.40
3rd:	14	Prosecco			$6.20
4th:	2	Fun Elite			
•	$2.00 QUINELLA 5-10 $162.40
•	

R#3- 10-3-4-5– Quin

POS	#	Horse	             Win	Place	Show
1st:	10	Solid Impact	      $12.30		$3.60
2nd:	3	Eighty Light Years			$2.20
3rd:	4	Northern Beaches			$6.40
4th:	5	Fashion Legend			
•	$2.00 QUINELLA 3-10 $11.70
•	

R#4- 5-3-6-11– Win

POS	#	Horse	             Win	Place	Show
1st:	5	Aeroinvincible	$4.70		$2.60
2nd:	3	Dream Pursuer			$10.00
3rd:	6	All Riches			       $4.10
4th:	11	Golden Samurai			
•	 

R#5- 1-8-2-7– Win & Quin

POS	#	Horse	              Win	Place	Show
1st:	1	Star Club	      $4.20		$2.60
2nd:	8	Lifeline Express			$3.40
3rd:	2	Phoenix Light			$7.20
4th:	7	King Miles			
•	$2.00 QUINELLA 1-8 $14.00
•	

R#6- 7-2-3-4– Win-Quin & Tri COLD (#12 Late Scr)

POS	#	Horse	              Win	Place	Show
1st:	7	Patch Of Theta	 $4.00		$2.20
2nd:	2	Voyage Samurai			$4.40
3rd:	3	Golden Rise			        $3.10
4th:	4	Ariel			
•	$2.00 QUINELLA 2-7 $17.00
•	$2.00 TRIFECTA 7-2-3 $56.40
•	

R#7- 2-10-9-3– Out

R#8- 6-8-4-7– Quin & Tri

POS	#	Horse	             Win	Place	Show
1st:	6	Baby Crystal	    $13.10		$4.10
2nd:	8	James Tak			       $4.00
3rd:	4	Stellar Express			$3.20
4th:	7	Gracious Express			
•	$2.00 QUINELLA 6-8 $31.80
•	$2.00 TRIFECTA 6-8-4 $212.60
•	

R#9- 3-5-2-14– Win-Quin & Tri

POS	#	Horse	             Win	Place	Show
1st:	3	Happy Together    $15.40		$5.30
2nd:	5	Champion Dragon			$9.40
3rd:	2	Five G Patch			       $4.70
4th:	14	Sweet Encounter			
•	$2.00 QUINELLA 3-5 $146.60
•	$2.00 TRIFECTA 3-5-2 $1,369.60
•	

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R#10- 12-3-11-5– Out
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[Nitro]

A morning at the races in Hong Kong I won’t soon forget.
With 6 Key choice Winners, 7 Quinellas and 3 Triples.

All generated from an analysis of the early HK tote information.
(The live tote analysis further confirmed the early selections)

It was a personal best for me in terms of the hit frequency.
This new plateau has given me the confidence to pursue even higher profit goals. This will mean that the emphasis will require greater focus on the monetary side of the game.

As a result, my posted selections may not appear as often in the future, and also because there’s so little interest and involvement with HK racing on this forum.
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