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Old 01-05-2019, 05:20 PM   #826
Buckeye
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To your point reckless, deflation is much worse than inflation in that the value of property owned is destroyed. Inflation hurts less.

I don't even think they taught me this at Wharton!

Last edited by Buckeye; 01-05-2019 at 05:23 PM.
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Old 01-07-2019, 06:01 PM   #827
Ocala Mike
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Opinions are like assholes, and here's mine. GE will be $8.60 before it hits $6.60, but good luck on your trade.
Got this right on 12/20. Too bad I didn't act on it for a quick 20-25% move.

Meanwhile, TNDM, ETSY, and NVAX still riding high.
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Old 01-08-2019, 11:34 PM   #828
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Here's my prediction, almost everything said here will be wrong (not including this).

There is a connection between what the Market will do and who will win a horse race.

Last edited by Buckeye; 01-08-2019 at 11:35 PM.
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Old 01-09-2019, 08:47 PM   #829
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Here's my prediction,

There is a connection between what the Market will do and who will win a horse race.
Whatever you were having when you wrote this last night...would like to try some...please post what it was....thanks.....seriously...
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Old 01-10-2019, 05:04 PM   #830
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Whatever you were having when you wrote this last night...would like to try some...please post what it was....thanks.....seriously...
Ever hear of the "Random Walk Theory?"
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Old 01-10-2019, 07:19 PM   #831
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Ever hear of the "Random Walk Theory?"
How about "Entanglement theory" ...quantum mechanics...
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Old 01-10-2019, 08:35 PM   #832
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I'm just trying to predict what will happen in the Xpressbet Contest.

I'm not a physicist and I doubt you are.

I'm going to rely on my artistic side if you don't mind.
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Old 01-11-2019, 09:02 AM   #833
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i have been averaging down now on a stock for 5 years and so far i am destroyed. but i suspect i am going to wind up with a homerun pretty soon. MUX.

Jesse Livermore said, "when you know you're right, you must sit tight"
Somewhat funny that you're quoting someone who squandered his entire 100 million in trading capital and blew his brains out. Jesse blamed his financial demise on not following his own trading rules.
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Old 01-16-2019, 08:16 AM   #834
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FDC acquired at 27% premium!
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:04 AM   #835
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FDC acquired at 27% premium!
Discount?

Edit:

Never mind, I see that it is up, or had been up, 27 percent today.
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Old 01-16-2019, 03:01 PM   #836
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I have been maintaining a stock market timing model for the past 5 or 10 years that was devised by Martin Zweig. Last week I got the biggest buy signal that the model gives. It also gave a couple smaller buy signals a week or so earlier.

Check back here in 6 months. I estimate that the SP will rise by at least 15% by June 15, 2019.

Last time I made this prediction I got the direction right, but it took a little longer than 6 months to hit the target.

The cyclical low of the S&P was 2351 back on December 24, 2018. If it increased by 4% from that low to 2445, that would be a buy signal. It rose 4% by December 26. That signals a lot of buying momentum.

So I'm looking at a target for the SP of at least 2811 -- up 15% from December 26's close, but more likely 2931 based on the close of January 7, 2019.

The following indicator is why I am so bullish:

On January 7, the NYSE Advancing Stocks to Declining Stocks ratio over a 10 day period was greater than 2-1. That is a huge buy signal based on momentum. It has only happened twice since 1993. It happened in March of 2009 at the bottom of the financial crisis when interest rates dropped and the Fed started QE. It happened in July 2016 when everyone thought Hillary was a lock to win the presidency -- investors saw stability in that not much would change from the Obama presidency.

There was also another strong indicator on December 26, 2018 when the NYSE Advancing volume to declining volume ratio was greater than 9-1 -- it hit 24-1. It takes a lot of buying to get to that ratio. Money is flooding into the market.

The last time the Adv/Dec vol ratio was greater than 9-1 was on January 29, 2016. July 2016. Before that it was October 5, 2015. There were a bunch of 9-1's back in late 2008 when the market was volatile. There were also a bunch of 1-9's which signaled a lot of selling. The market didn't know which way to go.

Then on March 23, 2009 the Adv vol to Dec vol ratio hit 48-1! The bull market was in full swing at that point.

The ratio was 24-1 on December 26, 2018. That's only half as strong as March of 2019, but it is the strongest and only one since election day November 7, 2016 when everyone thought Clinton would be the president.

Since Trump got elected there have been 6 or 7 days where the Declining volume exceeded the Advancing volume by a ratio of 9 to 1. This is not meant to be a political thread, but only to show that there was a lot of uncertainty during Trump's first two years in office. Not all of the uncertainty was due to him, but, nevertheless, it happened during his tenure.

However, it looks like that uncertainty has been priced into the market and now the market should do well over the next 6 months.

Last edited by highnote; 01-16-2019 at 03:05 PM.
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Old 01-16-2019, 03:37 PM   #837
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it certainly looks like there is money coming in buying these markets now and could last until the 3rd quarter. the volume indicators that you are using look like a fairly good model.

my guess is that the markets will test or surpass the lows for the year after that if the volume doesn't hold up.
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Old 01-16-2019, 04:21 PM   #838
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Well, this is a relief! Phew! I thought the world was a comin' to an end lately...
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Old 01-16-2019, 04:29 PM   #839
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Well, this is a relief! Phew! I thought the world was a comin' to an end lately...
Things were much worse back in 2008 and early 2009. If the world was going to end, it would have been then.

The best time to buy is when the people think the world is going to end.

Buy when there is blood in the streets.
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Old 01-16-2019, 05:12 PM   #840
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There was definitely NO blood in the streets this past month or so...I can tell you that.

Only bogus fear-monger headlines...
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