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Old 12-16-2019, 01:08 PM   #1
Michael
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Gulfstream Park West - Speed Figures

This past Friday I was listening to the timeformUS forcast, and David mentioned that it was difficult to get accurate speed figures at gpw. I was looking at the Rampart and was oblivious to this tid-bit of information. The horse in question was ML favorite Baccarat Fashion. Had 16 outtings and has never ran the mile distance and had two bullet works on Nov 30 (4f) and Dec 7 (5f).


In so far as handicapping I specifically wrote “do not bet this race” in my notes. I took another look after listening and asked myself how I would cap this race if Baccarat wasn’t in the race. Had cookie dough and Pink Sands as my two top choices. Pink Sands ran huge and would recommend anyone that missed this race to go back and watch the replay. Fantastic run… I was at my local otb and the groans from the people watching really cemented the race as my favorite for the weekend.


Anyway, my question is why is it more difficult to get accurate speed figures at Gulfstream Park west? Now that I look at the gpw figures.. they all seem inflated



While I’m at it…. Why in the world can’t we have a 11/2 on the tote board? If the state can have the track take AND dime breakage.. AND the otb rake… why can’t players get a realistic measure on odds?
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Old 12-17-2019, 10:44 AM   #2
usfgeology
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As we get a bunch of GPW and GP cross-state shippers into Tampa Bay Downs. I always give GP shippers a slight class advantage when racing at equivalent levels between tracks. But the GPW horses have often thrown me. This might be why.

I'll have to pay more attention to whether GPW shippers are over/under performing in relation to their speed figures.

Quick question though....I'm assuming you mean speed figures a la Brisnet SPD figures? but you also mention work out times in your post. Do you think they have trouble clocking at GPW too? That would also be something to look out for.
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Old 12-17-2019, 11:05 AM   #3
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I'll have to re-listen to remember exactly what David and I said, but I don't really have much problem making speed figures for GPW that I remember. Some days they run a lot of turf leaving only a few races to make dirt figures, but that happens a lot of places these days.
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Old 12-17-2019, 11:53 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
I'll have to re-listen to remember exactly what David and I said, but I don't really have much problem making speed figures for GPW that I remember. Some days they run a lot of turf leaving only a few races to make dirt figures, but that happens a lot of places these days.
David brought it up on today's show. His point was that others had a few of the races much faster than I did, but those horses didn't run well on Saturday at all so score one for TimeformUS.
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Old 12-17-2019, 10:30 PM   #5
Michael
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Quote:
Originally Posted by usfgeology View Post
As we get a bunch of GPW and GP cross-state shippers into Tampa Bay Downs. I always give GP shippers a slight class advantage when racing at equivalent levels between tracks. But the GPW horses have often thrown me. This might be why.

I'll have to pay more attention to whether GPW shippers are over/under performing in relation to their speed figures.

Quick question though....I'm assuming you mean speed figures a la Brisnet SPD figures? but you also mention work out times in your post. Do you think they have trouble clocking at GPW too? That would also be something to look out for.
My specific mention was bc I use brisnet for my pps and they had an semi-high speed figure from gpw. The only reason I mentioned the bullet workouts, was to highlight that this horse was running 5f bullets prior to being entered in a route for the first time. I just wasn't sure why the speed figs may or may not be accurate. As for the workout clocking... I don't put much faith into accuracy... more or less just see works as a net positive. but yeah, you maybe right... I just don't know the inner workings of clocking workouts and or speed figs for that matter

The takeaway for me... is that the Morning Line maker likely uses DRF to sus out Gulfstream's line. So there might be something to be said for cross check gpw's drf figures with CJ's timeform when situations arise. If people are high on gpw figures that show flat on timeform... it may point to value on other entries. I haven't actually ventured into CJ's figures but will prob give them a try in the future.
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Old 12-17-2019, 10:36 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
I'll have to re-listen to remember exactly what David and I said, but I don't really have much problem making speed figures for GPW that I remember. Some days they run a lot of turf leaving only a few races to make dirt figures, but that happens a lot of places these days.
Hey thanks for the reply! that makes sense... btw, the podcast is great. Big fan of listening to both of you talk shop.
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