KD horses i'm using

[boys at tosconova]

KD horses i'm using.

usually i can get it down to 5 and be happy. but imo there's around 7 horses i could put on the 4/5th line. and sadly even move them up to 3rd. which kind of sucks.

leaning stronghold for 4th. also considering track phantom for 5th. both of which come with several drawbacks as well as deeper rewards should they fire.

i'm basically only going to use sierra and freedom for 3rd on trip tickets

fierceness
just a touch
just steel
stronghold
track phantom

debate me not to use stronghold and phantom


will give reasons shortly

[Aerocraft67]

How does Track Phantom endure the pace? Even if he doesn't need the lead, can he win the race of a lifetime rating, in blinkers, for the first time?

Stronghold won his last two fair and square, but he did go all out last time, and still didn't put up big final fractions. He's the better choice, but a bold one for fourth.

You'll want all of that 20-1 and then some. Which will make your decision harder if he goes 18-1 and Track Phantom goes 26-1.

[boys at tosconova]

stronghold

ev+


-looks fast enough
-tactical speed
-never far behind in any race
-never worse than 2nd
-under the radar
-pstprform face value shows improvement every race

ev-

-underlying numbers are somewhat lackluster
-cali horses seem to getting worse in the KD every year
-post position 18
-jockey

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

How does Track Phantom endure the pace? Even if he doesn't need the lead, can he win the race of a lifetime rating, in blinkers, for the first time?

Stronghold won his last two fair and square, but he did go all out last time, and still didn't put up big final fractions. He's the better choice, but a bold one for fourth.

You'll want all of that 20-1 and then some. Which will make your decision harder if he goes 18-1 and Track Phantom goes 26-1.

track star has been quitting. but he surely hasn't been packing it in or retreating that much. it might be due to the distance, and it sure as h*ll isn't going to get easier on saturday going further. thing is, sierra only beat him by 1/2 length and he was the fav in the LD. will blinks help?. i don't know. i do know that he's going to be overlooked, undervalued and be up close for most of the race

[boys at tosconova]

just steel.

i really haven't read or watched any opinions on the KD horses this year. i might get around to it

there has to be be people in just steel's camp.

lukas usually has a fringe horse in the derby without much chance to do anything and/or running big races slow and crap races when they went faster.

but this horse based off his last race looks like SOLID contender. you can't run that race without talent.

the distance doesn't look like it will hurt. the horse finished really well @ 1-1/8.

i would really like to hear if lukas is more giddy this year with this horse. he has to show some excitement to the press?

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

just steel.

i really haven't read or watched any opinions on the KD horses this year. i might get around to it

there has to be be people in just steel's camp.

lukas usually has a fringe horse in the derby without much chance to do anything and/or running big races slow and crap races when they went faster.

but this horse based off his last race looks like SOLID contender. you can't run that race without talent.

the distance doesn't look like it will hurt. the horse finished really well @ 1-1/8.

i would really like to hear if lukas is more giddy this year with this horse. he has to show some excitement to the press?

I think Lukas thinks he can win. He really likes Keith. He didn’t sound too thrilled about his last workout though which was 4.5f I believe

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

I think Lukas thinks he can win. He really likes Keith. He didn’t sound too thrilled about his last workout though which was 4.5f I believe

sadly most of his fringe horses bounce something awful after a big race. most of the time is because they're not fast enough though. steel looks fast enough but still could bounce if that stumble bothered him or the last race zapped him.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

sadly most of his fringe horses bounce something awful after a big race. most of the time is because they're not fast enough though. steel looks fast enough but still could bounce if that stumble bothered him or the last race zapped him.

I’m worried about that for sure. Plus he’s run a ton. But there’s no one else I like that much. I think fierceness and sierra lone are very good. After that I just don’t see much

[bisket]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

sadly most of his fringe horses bounce something awful after a big race. most of the time is because they're not fast enough though. steel looks fast enough but still could bounce if that stumble bothered him or the last race zapped him.

He’s had plenty of activity this winter and spring. So unlike most of the field he has a lot of bottom fitness wise. Yeah he could regress off the Ark Derby, but I would say he’s more likely to repeat or move forward in the derby. I haven’t seen them yet but I’d look to see how the sheets see him.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by bisket

I haven’t seen them yet but I’d look to see how the sheets see him.

Thoro-Graph for that horse: 9 3/4, 2 2/2, 8, 2 1/2, 7, 1.

If that pattern keeps going, he's gonna bounce bad. If he can match that 1 then he's a contender, at least for a shot at the board. Another horse with a pilot lacking Derby experience. If he gets off step slow like in the Rebel then it's game over for him. He otherwise has enough early foot out of the 6 hole to be where he needs to be and avoid going 5-wide like the Rebel and 4-wide in the Ark. I'm not feeling the mojo with him but will be hard to not include on the bottom of a tri play.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Thoro-Graph for that horse: 9 3/4, 2 2/2, 8, 2 1/2, 7, 1.

If that pattern keeps going, he's gonna bounce bad. If he can match that 1 then he's a contender, at least for a shot at the board. Another horse with a pilot lacking Derby experience. If he gets off step slow like in the Rebel then it's game over for him. He otherwise has enough early foot out of the 6 hole to be where he needs to be and avoid going 5-wide like the Rebel and 4-wide in the Ark. I'm not feeling the mojo with him but will be hard to not include on the bottom of a tri play.

the 7 and 8 numbers he had somewhat excuses.

the 8 was his first race @3 and first race at OP. the 7 in the rebel he was outside and wide.

take those two out and you have plenty of meat on the bones. i think things are a little more level than extreme.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

stronghold

ev+


-looks fast enough
-tactical speed
-never far behind in any race
-never worse than 2nd
-under the radar
-pstprform face value shows improvement every race

ev-

-underlying numbers are somewhat lackluster
-cali horses seem to getting worse in the KD every year
-post position 18
-jockey

I don't like his pedigree for 1 1/4

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Afleet

I don't like his pedigree for 1 1/4

well anther positive is that he went 135 change @ the mile and won on this CD strip in his second lifetime start.

seems like there's more positives than negatives. and many negs are perceived.

for some reason he does seem like a vanilla type pick and many are shying away from him

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

well anther positive is that he went 135 change @ the mile and won on this CD strip in his second lifetime start.

seems like there's more positives than negatives. and many negs are perceived.

for some reason he does seem like a vanilla type pick and many are shying away from him

pedigree definitely not an exact science

[zico20]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

KD horses i'm using.

usually i can get it down to 5 and be happy. but imo there's around 7 horses i could put on the 4/5th line. and sadly even move them up to 3rd. which kind of sucks.

leaning stronghold for 4th. also considering track phantom for 5th. both of which come with several drawbacks as well as deeper rewards should they fire.

i'm basically only going to use sierra and freedom for 3rd on trip tickets

fierceness
just a touch
just steel
stronghold
track phantom

debate me not to use stronghold and phantom


will give reasons shortly

When you are falling apart in the stretch after having an uncontested lead in 48 flat and 112 and 2 there isn't much hope of sticking around going longer, faster, against better and not having the lead. Track Phantom is an easy toss.