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[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by donmat

I think some kind of rating based on workouts would be valuable not only for maidens but other races also.

Guys....workouts are non-significant unless your dealing with maidens...

I have HSH ( thousands of factors) and I've worked numerous statistical analysis programs to prove it....

So lets look elsewhere

Mike

[fast4522]

Originally Posted by donmat

I think some kind of rating based on workouts would be valuable not only for maidens but other races also.

OK, you did not hear it from me so you and I won't talk about it. Beaver Yeast has done that better than anyone.



http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a.../t-123045.html

[Tom]

Take a look at the GWSLR workout in Barry Meadows book.
Ken Masa came up with it, and he has a WO rating in HTR what is extremely useful when used in concert with other factors,ie, class drop, Good work, or blinkers off, good work.

[Handiman]

I will think about it. See what I can do.

Handi

[donmat]

I noticed that within the spreadsheets generated by Handifast there is no column for track condition such as Fast-Good-Muddy-Sloppy. Is this something that can be added in the future?

[mikesal57]

Guys....

We are not looking for bit & pieces here....

We are looking for WOW FACTORS!!!!

EX:

I mentioned that workouts alone dont do much....but when Tom added an idea from the Meadows Book.....that is something to look into...

The thing is , Handi needs to gather info on that and try to program it.....
He may or cant get that far and might need help.

Thx

[Handiman]

Moving along with the program upgrade. One thing that is of paramount importance is the ability to spot weak favorites. That is one thing I would love to add to Handifast. But as of this date, I have not figured out how to do that. I am open to suggestions.

I am not privy to the idea gleaned from Meadow's book that was spoken about here. So if someone would like to enlighten me I'd appreciate it.

Handi.

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by Handiman

Moving along with the program upgrade. One thing that is of paramount importance is the ability to spot weak favorites. That is one thing I would love to add to Handifast. But as of this date, I have not figured out how to do that. I am open to suggestions.

Dave Schwartz has made some recent posts along those lines. I thought you would be privy to his insights given your relationship. If he gives away any secrets please pass them along.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by headhawg

Dave Schwartz has made some recent posts along those lines. I thought you would be privy to his insights given your relationship. If he gives away any secrets please pass them along.

Its not that far off than what most people can deduct HH....

Its just a few factors where the favorite falls short on...

The hard part was deciding those factors with the intense research it needed

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by headhawg

Dave Schwartz has made some recent posts along those lines. I thought you would be privy to his insights given your relationship. If he gives away any secrets please pass them along.

I believe Handi is speaking about the Barry Meadow's book.

Handiman has access to everything from our most recent and highly-successful approach. We have agreed that it will not be part of the Handiman software. (I don't help him THAT much.)


As for the "secrets" themselves, I've spent quite a bit of time trying to figure out how to simplify it down to something useful to a PPC (paper-pencil-calculator) player. I just can't seem to do it.

While the process is really easy and simple to an HSH user, it is a mountain of work for a PPC.

As I have said for a long time, the real key to winning is understanding the low odds horses and how they fit into the scheme of the handicapping.

I've honed that part of the game into something extremely powerful. That is what we call The PLAY AGAINST HORSE. (I call the PAs.)

There is one fellow in our public Facebook group who has been playing most days and posting these PAs before the races go off. Frankly, he's a bit of a celebrity because he's been kicking ass for a couple of weeks.

The hit rate on ODDS-ON and PLAY AGAINST is around 22%. In other words, when Steve says the play is a LOSING PROPOSITION, they lose big money.

If you can do that consistently, you could throw darts at the rest of the field and make money.

Handiman (Milford) has been doing some of this as well, but he usually posts his plays. As he's posted here, he's winning consistently.

Dave

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I believe Handi is speaking about the Barry Meadow's book.

Handiman has access to everything from our most recent and highly-successful approach. We have agreed that it will not be part of the Handiman software. (I don't help him THAT much.)

Yes, the Meadow book for the workout angle, but I was referring to his comment about finding weak favorites. And joking about giving away secrets.

[Segwin]

Hello all,


Used HandiSearch to do a profile of TDN. Everything worked correctly as far as I can tell.


Question is how do I use this information to build a Race Analysis? I dodn't see any PDF on the subject and a Google search of this site doesn't produce many results.



Thanks in advance for the help.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by headhawg

Yes, the Meadow book for the workout angle, but I was referring to his comment about finding weak favorites. And joking about giving away secrets.

Ah. If I can figure out how to package this so that it could be done practically by a paper-pencil-calc person, I will make it available.

It is not a trivial thing to do without HSH. It involves 4 different handicapping objects and some are very top-heavy with stats-based factors.

I might be able to produce a PHILOSOPHICAL version of it, but the natural response would be "Well, that's just stupid." LOL

Probably why it works as well as it does.

The philosophical version, from the 10,000-foot level would be:

Since we know that about 3-out-of-4 winners are bet down from their "gate odds," we want to know who those horses are likely to be.

BTW, we do this without ever looking at the actual tote board.

I mentioned that Steve K. plays his "Beat the Favorites" game in Talking Handicapping. Other guys occasionally play along.

The odd thing is that the play-against horses that the other guys pick are generally the horses that Steve is BETTING!

Of course, that fits right into the principles behind the PLAY AGAINST system, but it is interesting to watch unfold.

I recall one recent day when Steve's PAs were like 0-6 and his low odds MPs (must plays) were 3-3. Someone else was mirroring Steve's plays but from the wrong side. He'd not bet all 6 of the PAs, but had called all 3 winners Play Against.


Dave

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

The philosophical version, from the 10,000-foot level would be:

Since we know that about 3-out-of-4 winners are bet down from their "gate odds," we want to know who those horses are likely to be.

BTW, we do this without ever looking at the actual tote board.

Would this be an extension and/or a more elaborate version of your 1-2-3 seminar? There was a lot of very good stuff in those lessons.

[headhawg]

Apparently, Dave's not here.

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