top 10 mistakes

[ldiatone]

Originally Posted by HoofedInTheChest

You can choose from phantom fears and kindness that can kill
I will choose a path that's clear
I will choose freewill

OMG!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I'm usually ecstatic when I hit the Derby ex or tri or whatever....but last year I basically watched in bored silence as I hit the trifecta.
It seemed so easy and anticlimactic. All I could muster was a small "hang on Gun Runner" as Nyquist went by him in the lane. Luckily he barely held 3rd.
Hoping this year provides more excitement and value as we've had some boring Derbies lately that didn't pay well (see the Chrome, Dortmund, Firing Line finish from a few years ago)

I've had more cashes but only 3 solid hits during the Triple Crown during the last 7 years. The 2011 and 2013 Derbies and the 2014 Belmont. Anticlimactic is the right word here definitely! And when I read threads talking about chalk key overlays in a tri or super in the Derby race my head gets ready to explode. I loathe that train of thought for this race!

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

"51 of the last 54 Kentucky Derby winners were in first or second place with a furlong to go. Think about that for a second."...the man says.

And we've been losing money on the Derby all these years.

I think that stat potentially confuses cause and effect. Many of those horses don't win because they are so prominent at the furlong marker; they are prominent at the eighth pole because they are destined to win. And that's a HUGE difference.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

The guy is the liar if he thinks he is the worst at picking the Kentucky Derby winner, because I have that honor. There have been 38 of them run since I started betting thoroughbreds at the age of 18. Looking over the list I have only picked it correctly 5 times that all paid less than $10 to win. I went in person once in 1999 and did not cash a ticket on a Churchill race on Oaks or Derby day. Even if I am not betting I always tried to pick the race.

Since 1982, Unbridled, FuPeg, and I'll Have Another. That's my KD winners. I have a real love/hate relationship with the race.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

The guy is the liar if he thinks he is the worst at picking the Kentucky Derby winner, because I have that honor. There have been 38 of them run since I started betting thoroughbreds at the age of 18. Looking over the list I have only picked it correctly 5 times that all paid less than $10 to win. I went in person once in 1999 and did not cash a ticket on a Churchill race on Oaks or Derby day. Even if I am not betting I always tried to pick the race.

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Since 1982, Unbridled, FuPeg, and I'll Have Another. That's my KD winners. I have a real love/hate relationship with the race.

You have a couple nice prices in your 3, one of my five was Spectacular Bid when I was 18. I love to look at the form and watch the race I just hate trying to bet on it. The Kentucky Derby is one sporting event I never miss watching no matter what, the other 2 are the Super Bowl and the Indy 500. I started the streak 44 years ago at the age of 12, my Grandma was a big Secretariat fan. Didn't get to the track till two years later at 14.

[ultracapper]

Unbridled was one of those "life changing" plays for me. I had $10 across the board on him, and a $10 exacta box with Summer Squall. That was when I started to look at the whole thing differently. It was the most money I had ever bet on a race up to that time, and it was about 5X more than I'd ever won on a race up to that time. Even through the very substantial partying my friends and I experienced that night, I couldn't help but think about the potential this game might hold for me.

There was still a lo-o-o-o-o-o-ong way to go for me, but I did start looking at it all from a little different viewpoint that day/night.

[Hapman]

I've definitely fallen victim to using closers on top thinking they can win, when as the article points out they're dangerous for under in exotics but rarely actually win the thing.

I frankly just try to gamble a bit with this race. For me the winner is usually clear enough but if you play the unders in your ex or tri right you have the potential to hit some good scores.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

You have a couple nice prices in your 3, one of my five was Spectacular Bid when I was 18. I love to look at the form and watch the race I just hate trying to bet on it. The Kentucky Derby is one sporting event I never miss watching no matter what, the other 2 are the Super Bowl and the Indy 500. I started the streak 44 years ago at the age of 12, my Grandma was a big Secretariat fan. Didn't get to the track till two years later at 14.

I loved Giacomo............until his SA Derby. I thought he hung in that race, and I got off him. When he crossed the line first at Churchill, I could have cried.

[HandiTrack]

I took a stand for Smarty Jones, I had him over Lion Heart and I don't know if I even had them boxed.

I did NOT take a stand the year Mine That Bird won and threw $2 wins on like the 8 longest shots in the field because I kind of hated everyone, and got a hundred bucks as a reward.

I think the derby is a race unlike any other and all rules or angles kind of go out the window with that kind of traffic (at least a quarter of the field ends up with a bum trip). My only decent derby scores (above) came from just going with my gut. Actual "handicapping" gets me very little unless there is someone like American Pharoah in the field, and then you get $7.80 for your efforts.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

"51 of the last 54 Kentucky Derby winners were in first or second place with a furlong to go. Think about that for a second."...the man says.

And we've been losing money on the Derby all these years.

Hey, all you have to do is figure out the 3 or 4 horses every year that will be in 1st or 2nd with 1 furlong to go. That ish be easy.

I want to ask the prognosticator of this article 3 questions:

1. Is water wet?
2. Has man stepped foot on the moon?
3. Can you find Louisville, KY on a map?

[trytrytry]

add ignore all the japan based and Dubai run horses and that will cross off another for you each year, sometimes two.

Lani anyone

[lamboguy]

the Kentucky Derby is the toughest race in the world to pick winners at . it might be a good time to try place or show bets due to the large pools and the lesser effect that breakage will have on your outcome.